The Australian Weather Forum

The mid and upper levels look more impressive to me than the surface for the first approaching front. There's a pretty sharp, high amplitude mid/upper trough accompanying this front with solid shear. UK's going for 50 to 60kt at 700hpa (up to 70kt over western TAS) and 70 to 80kt at 500hpa over Vic ...

Doppler's detected a possible tornado near west Memphis, Tenessee headed on a path through the northern parts of Memphis (which is now covered by a tornado warning) as I type. This is part of the 2nd major severe storm/tornado outbreak to affect the US within a week. There's a potent 90 to 100kt mid...

Hello, i was just wondering if you could tell me what EC and GFS mean? Sorry, i not sure at all. I'm guessing they're a type of map? They're both global computer models. EC is run by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts while GFS stands for Global Forecast System and is a US model...

As for the BOM not giving out EC rainfall on their website, well they want you to pay for it. Many people would not go looking for it so they can charge for something they can have for free. Whether it is the BOM being greedy of if it's because of lack of funding you can make up your own mind but I...

No worries johnno. By the way, I replied to your questions in the "Planes/departing/landing & wind directions" thread.

And if i am not mistaken, the new forecast is now derived from EC? Not sure what new forecast you're referring to but if you meant the multi-model systems such as OCF or PME, they use a number of global and local models such as JMA, EC, UK, LAPS, CMC, etc. Official public forecasts for Vic currentl...

And i know i sound like a broken record, but the models are useless. Soon enough people will start to realise our climate is completely changing, and the models cant pick it. 22mm at Maryborough is huge, models werent going for anything above 5-10mm aty a stretch, and most pushed it North. So i wou...

I thought the average for melbs in april was 10C min and 19.something max? The mean April min for the Melbourne Regional Office site (it's not actually right at the Regional Office but still in the city) is 10.8C while the mean max is 20.3C. P.S. the cold air field behind the front south of WA is l...

Just a quick heads-up - some pretty decent sfc wind speeds (NW'lies to SW'lies) for southern Vic as well as southeast SA and TAS being suggested by some models towards the end of this week and weekend e.g. around 10% of the members of EC's ensemble suggesting sustained winds around Melbourne peaking...

Pretty lively setup I have to say. The way I see some of the pro's and cons of the setup today in terms of tornado potential is - Pro's: the shear isn't too shabby - which is indicative of the tornado signals being painted by NTFGS. The 18z run of mesolaps forecasts areas of 30-35kt worth of surface...

I find the whole thing fascinating in how they work there and after so many visits of late I have sort of worked out their program. Question I have is I didn't think planes landed in crosswinds? Thought that was dangerous? Just like they don't land with the wind behind them anyone understand about ...

Thanks for the warm welcome Lily, Rivergirl, johnno, Karl and sorry to anyone else I may have forgotten. And yes, it was a bit of a "whiteout" in the city (no doubt most people here would've seen the news footage of the localised flooding around Dudley St, Docklands from the early morning ...

[quote="hillybilly"]18mm in (south) Ferny Creek at 9am. The next band looks to mark the wind change and looks great as it comes across the bay. Could be a few more mm's in it. Not sure how many people saw it but there was a reasonable looking NW-SE oriented shelf cloud that stretched almos...

Just woke up about 1 min before my alarm (both my normal one and nature's) went off. About to get hammered here by the leading edge. Looks like NTFGS was right in terms of painting the faint TS signal areas around the Melbourne region for this morning.

Noticed the too Johnno, Meso has 40-50mm here, LAPS 20-30mm, EC 10mm, OCF 16mm and GFS 10mm. I normally add all totals up and average it out, which in this case gives me 16mm which sounds about right. Still did'nt answer your question sorry. Rhino. :) :) Not sure if you're already aware but OCF ess...

The setup does look interesting. A few things that stand out for me is last night's 12z run of UK going for a belt of WAA (warm air advection) up to 2C/hr, oriented mainly NNW-SSE, at 200hpa approaching SW Vic by around 06z this arvo and over central/southern Vic by around 12z tonight. It also goes ...