The Australian Weather Forum

Massive failure of the forecast models over much of the Northern Country today. Hard to believe that most models were suggesting 30-50mm just before the event. BOM were warning of possible flooding of rivers.... Actual rainfall - 5mm.

Bit worried about this system for my area. Radar shows it clearing from the west and NW already, also just to the North of Melbourne its very patchy. The heaviest rain seems to sliding away to SW of Melbourne. Hope I am wrong - time will tell. Yeah, enhanced infrared isn't terribly encouraging: htt...

Looks like GFS has got this one better than the rest. EC got it seriously wrong.

What's interesting is that DPs are all over the shop:
At 5am: Mildura 22.5c, Bendigo 15.7c, Mangalore 11.6c.

I'm not throwing the towel in quite yet, but I really can't see more than 20mm today.

If we get the 50mm forecast we will be over 100mm for the week. That's crazy ! Reminiscent of the La Niña Currently on 80mm in the Eastern suburbs of Bendigo. More than 22mm tomorrow will make it our wettest week since Feb 2011. But the 164mm of Jan 10-16, 2011 looks very out-of-reach. Our lawns lo...

Another interesting afternoon in Bendigo. There was quite an intense downpour at around 2:20pm in town - probably about 10mm+ in a matter of minutes and the underground carpark at Bendigo Marketplace caused a few problems. Only a few mm at the airport AWS today which is proving to have a force-field...

The 500 HPa streamline chart at present tells a story. Amazing fetch from Northern Australia down into Vic.

Cumulonimbus » Fri Jan 09, 2015 7:11 pm wrote:

Cumulonimbus wrote:3AW each today - including today - told us the UV index is extreme.

What garbage. It's always extreme in Jan based on full sun, but reality is it was low today under full cloud!

Utter nuffies!

Perhaps that was the forecast for pilots flying at 40000ft....

Did anyone hear Jane Bunn's weather forecast tonight on ch7 melbourne? I thought it was hilarious. She said "the official forecast is for reason tomorrow but it will most likely stay dry with drizzle possible" Love her forecasting.she's been the most accurate the whole week Jane's a legen...

Forecast models for Tuesday - looks like a major clash of airmasses and a bit of a cyclone over Vic!

39mm in the gauge at Flora Hill in Bendigo. Apparently Maiden Gully copped 74mm, and yet the airport AWS only got 24mm.

Could be more on the way looking at the radar towards Birchip.... and the satpic looks insane.

Looking at the satellite, it could in fact possibly be sunny later :o Now there's an epic fail on the BoM part if that were to happen. That might not be a bad thing - adding a bit of solar heat to the mix this afternoon. Some very moisture laden tropical air is up around Broken Hill and heading our...

Rhino wrote: Starting to develop around Stawell/Ararat..

We live in hope... BOM WATL rainfall forecast says we are more than 90% certain to get more than 1mm of rain today. It better hurry up!

Extremely frustrating day. Rain to our South-west, rain to our North. Nothing here. Nice sunset tonight though. 06z GFS worries me a bit. Has only 30mm for us now. EC quite bullish for Sunday and Monday (i.e 50-60mm), but I anticipate a big downgrade in the next model run. EC has a habit of overesti...

Lightning strikes are causing problems South of here. Bad grassfire just East of Kyneton.

I'm starting to think that Saturday and Sunday will be the big rain days here with a Northeasterly wind.

WE MUST stop building urban dog boxes that rely on aircon. There is not a house in Pakenham with decent eaves, it was always mildish, the temps have gone up 4 degrees since the housing went in, cheek to jowl, no room for a tree, a set back of a metre to more concrete. Also time for the state govt t...

06Z GFS looks ominous. Especially for Friday - Sunday period. Aligns mostly with EC which is telling.

Even Access-G has got into the action with a deep low bombing over Eastern Bass Strait. My confidence that we will get big rains is increasing.

As for historical parallels in the 1980s, Mid-January 1984 and New Year's Day 1988 are in the ballpark.

OK, I am back! And this coming event has me just a little bit excited.

As has been mentioned before, shades of January 2011 (although hopefully no damaging floods). EC has 110mm for Bendigo next weekend . Hard to believe, but who knows? Stranger still that we're meant to be in an ElNino....