The Australian Weather Forum

Still under 30° at my place this arvo. Just! Won't stay that way for long. Hate this kind of late heat and dry weather. Horrible. Yes, I normally relax once Feb ends, but once a decade or so this sort of rubbish rears up. At least BOM are hanging onto some sort of hope for mid-week onwards: almost ...

Yes there's a sniff of something in a week or so, with a few models now in loose agreement for significant rain (20mm plus) although they vary in where it will hit.

Will be interesting to see what BOM has to say in its afternoon forecast updates...

Meanwhile, the rain seems to be doing that dry spell thing of appearing on the models many days out, and then disappearing after a couple more runs.

I guess a rain event will have to stick eventually, though that chart I posted at the beginning of this thread is starting to look like a flop

Seems like as good a thread title as any given our February flash drought. Nothing much in the 'regular' forecast. However, to torture myself, I just had a look at BOM's latest climate forecasts, which are promising for 4-10 March. (Don't know if that's a good or bad thing with their poor record lat...

snowfall wrote: ↑Thu Feb 29, 2024 10:14 am We're only on about 12mm for the month. Very much below average.

Yes the tap has been turned off for us as well - we're finishing Feb on 8mm. El Nino on the wane and positive IOD back to neutral... and it stops raining

Yep, 31C and windy here now. But still grateful for the much-reduced big fire risk window.

A max here so far (3pm) of 26C feels like a win, even though temps are likely to rise further.

Full cloud, 23C, light winds and a few spots or rain here. BOM's max temp for us revised down to 32C from 35C a few days ago. We've dried out a lot in the last few weeks, so not underestimating the impact/ fire risk with the strong winds forecast for later today, but with this cooler, damper start, ...

Base of the pyro cumulus cloud now extends right over our place, and we're at least 80km to the east of the fire.

Smoke cloud on the radar growing rapidly . Smoke-filled sky here now.

Suspect there are a few reports yet to come in from members in badly storm-affected areas who have no communications at all. Was talking to a mate near Eildon yesterday who said there was a fair amount of damage up that way, and then his phone cut out - no contact since. No doubt the phone tower ran...

A bit of drizzle and 8C now - what a contrast with yesterday!

Just got power back after losing it at 2.30pm. Storms were spectacular here but evidently nothing compared to some locations! 'Normal' strong wind, a brief bit of hail, and 7mm of rain.

Storms absolutely chucking it down currently - no dry lightning here .

snowfall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:53 pm Sea breeze arrived here a couple of hours ago. Currently 20c after a max late this afternoon of 35c.

Yes good to get these cool nights between hot days; takes the edge off. Got to 33C here, and now back to 18C.

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 10:01 pm Still raining here. Closing in on 20mm...

The new Weeaproinah . What's your mtd?

Only 4mm here, but takes mtd to 83mm vs 66mm average. Cool too, high so far today is 18C. (Edit - that proved to be the high.)

Same. Rain seems to be setting in. Trying to reconcile our 'Possible shower' forecast issued a few minutes ago, with a radar that shows this rainband stretching back to the Eyre Penisula in SA. I must be missing something.

Some impressive boom crash opera here this afternoon, but those storms were passing just to our north. The cloud band over northern Victoria has stalled and is edging south. Will be some patchy rain for tomorrow. Expect solid falls for the northeast, possibly extending west. Radar looking better to ...

Same, just steady and heavy. 23mm here, though clearing now.

76mm mtd, 194mm for summer so far.

This system isn't getting any clearer! Yesterday, BOM's 4 dayer had the low center moving through central Bass Strait. Now they have it basically transiting south of Tassie