The Australian Weather Forum

Mostly sunny here this morning, the s/westerly breeze is still around though.

Frontal system is still on track acc. to last nights CMC:



Snow on the alps again next Monday, NE rivers to return to minor flooding?

Looks like next weekend, another strong cold front may impact us, just to keep most of the state damp? (no significant flooding signs with this event at this stage):

52.25mm total for this thread here, only the second (single) day of storms for this spring. Gone cold and winterly under the frontal clouds this arvo, only 15C out there now after 27C yesterda, 31C last Thursday. In terms of excess rain, Nth Central Gippsland might be the luckiest area in Vic this y...

Rain arrived here 9.30pm last night, persisted on and off till 7am adding another 13mm to our sodden lawns, just on 50mm for this thread so far. Has been calm, muggy bright and sunny here for 4 hours now, we are the only clear skys over the eastern 2/3's of Vic atm. Things are going to explode here ...

A period of rain early yest morning, then two separate storm events during the day, followed by another period of rain last night gave us a total of 35mm here. Tallys widely varied around the local area, typical of storm events, farmers local to here again dodged a bullet, and happy with the rain ta...

Yep Samboz, cells brewed up over all high areas around here this morning, but died due to blocked upper exhaust pipe. Round 2 tried again later this arvo, heard the odd distant rumble, but a fresh seabreeze arrived and killed it all off around here.

Grist for the climate thread?

Yet another cold westerly day here, all rivers/streams from Maffra to Melbourne are either elevated or in minor flood I saw today. Yarra R a banker at Richmond. For here, looks like yet another dodged bullet (circa 7th event in a row) - with most water fitting into the brink-full Macalister/Thompson...

The final factor if you are close to sea level is the 25cm of sea level rise. If your river is in flood that retards the flow and near the river mouth basically raises the water level by 25cm. That 25cm is increasing by 4-5mm/yr now. HB can you show us this reality using the Lakes Entrance tidal da...

Another cold windy SW'ly day, 1mm rain, 22mm for the event. Sick of the cold, mud and wind. Looks like no flooding issues around this area outside of the fact that every river around here is in minor flood. Maybe we get a week off next week, maybe some storms with the arrival of humidity from the NE?

A very interesting article posted by Martin Armstrong on the Beaufort Gyre around the Nth Pole - its cyclic changes, and its potential to disrupt the Gulf Stream:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/worl ... s-a-fraud/

Last nights "long thin NW rainband" provided 13.5mm by morning, then we got 4mm with this arvos gusty change. Takes us to 21mm for this event so far. Now for the cold night and squally cells over the next 24hrs?

Something new for this 63 y.o., a continuous rain band from Mildura, over the Alps, [edit ....and over Maffra] through to Seaspray!:



Cycles, ....we know nothing of Aus past.

Hit 26.5C today [edit - warmest day for this spring] with sun and very strong NW'ly winds, then the prefrontal band arrived mid arvo, providing 3.5mm for this event so far. Just got advised that Lake Glenmaggie is about to release water slightly in excess of the minor flood level, which makes it the...

The NW'ly gales have arrived here past 2 hours. Latest MSLP chart: https://i.imgur.com/mLPegbe.jpg CMC did a great job predicting this. Only a trace of rain here over the weekend, although I see EC is predicting an inch of rain here over the next 48 hours. Macalister R downstream of Lake Glenmaggie ...

The next significant (and unwelcome) event to impact Victoria looks to be in the form of a wild winter-like cold air storm system?:



How many sodden-rooted trees will come down if things turn out as predicted by CMC's latest run?

Overnight/morning persistent light westerly rain gave us another 11.5mm taking us to 33mm for this event. By the wet lawn/muddy paddocks around here you would think we've had 4 inches. Victoria is sodden.

The storm event likely to hit Vic later next weekend will surely see massive tree falls?

Off topic but there is an impressive sub tropical LOW off South East Queensland at the moment. That’s the low that gives eastern VIC and eastern Tasmania heavy rain later in the week. The current low near Coffs and the other near Mildura slowly drift south and interact, with the eastern low edging ...

Yesterday we had a couple of heavy showers passing through with the change midday - disrupting the Maffra Show, but it cleared for the later part of the day and evening fireworks. That all tallied to 9.75mm to last evening. A cool easterly day today, then the easterly winds freshened and went cold ...