The Australian Weather Forum

Good to hear. Timing of this wrap around surge is perfect with the air temps. Looks like maybe down to 400m based on obs. There is going to be some white hills in central Vic on sunrise.

stevco123 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:25 pm Not vic related, but just watching the snow fall in Canberra in the footy on channel 7

Classic.... GFS basically nailed it http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 27#p111927

JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:45 pm

Tassiedave wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:08 am How is it looking for the GWS vs Hawthorn in Canberra game Friday evening?

GFS suggesting snow in the 2nd half

Snowed in the 1st quarter, GFS almost nailed it

-3c @850 hPa is moving in from the SW.

I think Melbourne's forecast top of 11c is looking a little optimistic at this stage.

Peter has now consolidated under a Fujiwhara effect with the newer low off Tassie's east coast. His position is now the main factor for the surface troughs to sling shot into SE Australia. A new low and upper cold pool now heading towards western Vic from Bass Strait. Another new low is about to for...

A little bit of sleet here this morning so far. Obs looking cold enough for snow above 600m at the moment locally. 27mm so far for the thread. Landfall overnight was between Portland and Warrnambool, lowest pressure recorded was at Cape Nelson 982 hPa. Land friction changed Cyclone Peter characteris...

Didjman wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 6:08 pm

JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:46 pm Looking at models and land obs, Cyclone Peter is around 979 hPa. He looks like he is still heading WNW. If he hits the west coast, land friction will weaken him a little...

Landfall between Portland and Cape Otway on a WNW course?

Seems like around Warrnambool on his current track.

Cape Nelson first land ob to get to 989 hPa. Looking at models and land obs, Cyclone Peter is around 979 hPa. He looks like he is still heading WNW. If he hits the west coast, land friction will weaken him a little, sparing Melbourne the worst of the winds. Locally, it will get breezy tomorrow morni...

Wow! Thx JS. Any idea how much lower he will go? EC 18Z says 977 hPa and GFS 18Z suggests 976 hPa. If the GFS run 18Z verifies, I think the Melbourne wind record of 121 km/h set in 1982 will fall tomorrow morning, (although that record was Latrobe st not sure how that works with the new OP site).

Didjman wrote: ↑Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:58 pm What is Peter's central pressure? Looks like he is winding up on satpic!

979 hPa

great stuff Gordon!

Gravity wave clouds now starting to appear over SE OZ as the polar and subtropical jet streams connect at 350 km/h.

13mm, nice drop.

Cyclone Peter has dropped around 8 hPa in the last 6 hours to 983 hPa, heading west north west towards Bass strait. Cold front swinging equatorward.

BoM SWW is out. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml

Tassiedave wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 6:01 pm GWS vs Hawthorn AFL clash in Canberra Friday night could be interesting!

I can't ever recall seeing an AFL / VFL match played in snow?.....it's a chance after 9pm looking at the timings

The BoM suggesting this afternoon that Ballarat is about to have their coldest 6 day sequence in 24 years.

Tassiedave wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:08 am How is it looking for the GWS vs Hawthorn in Canberra game Friday evening?

GFS suggesting snow in the 2nd half

Time to kick off observations

Mt William in the Grampians @1150m now down to 2c as the low pressure trough and front slowly creeps in. Hoping for 10 to 20mm from part 1 overnight.

GFS 00Z doesn't let up. Mesoscale extratropical cyclone nearer to the Port Philip heads, 120 to 140 km/h at @850 hPa. It's tracks at a similar speed to the 27th December 1998 brut but is projected around 130km further north west nearer to Melbourne.

haha, yes Dane. That will be appropriately named if he does.

EC & GFS latest 18Z runs quite aligned for early Friday morning. Interacting Jet streams giving Peter a 'sting jet' near King Island.

Didjman wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:35 am

JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 7:00 am
I've made an executive decision, the cold core cyclone name 'if' it develops in Bass strait with be called Peter.

Good name but not the circumstances

Yes, you have hunted it from the stratosphere to the surface so thought the name was appropriate

It's starting to come together :) Here is how I see on the 6.30am water vapour pic. I've made an executive decision, the cold core cyclone name 'if' it develops in Bass strait with be called Peter. As you would expect, its a very tricky set up. 2 existing upper lows, 3 to be newly formed surface low...