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by hillybilly
Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:18 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Sweaty 27.7C here today. Foggy start and sunny humid end. Thinking the southeasterly will act as a storm shield here, but happy to be proved wrong. Quite surprised to see intense storms, but not surprised there is convection. Scorcher out west with decent humidity providing the fuel. Progs continue ...
by hillybilly
Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:45 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Foggy and humid night up here... Loving this humid weather ;) Not seeing much today. Hot uppers cap convection, while more easterly flow takes the edge of temperatures at the surface except out west which will be HOT. Scorching temperatures west of Vic yesterday. Low to mid 40s for most spots west o...
by hillybilly
Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:15 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

47.9mm for the event (though more humid days to come so might add some more). Lots of washouts around the hills as happens with decent falls. MTD is a healthy 50mm... Though our average is about 70mm so not quite there yet. Hopefully that's the end of our fire season here... Would be pretty unusual ...
by hillybilly
Sat Feb 14, 2015 6:23 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Cats and dogs, Puppy's and kittens here Same here. Even a couple of rumbles and fog to add to the atmospherics :D Just passed 35mm for the event. If the train of showers keeps up over us we'll crack 50mm by 9am... though it is edging south and might slip under us. Spots just south of here must be a...
by hillybilly
Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:39 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

25 to 30mm across Ferny Creek, and still coming down nicely. Tanks are full and we are now half way to the monthly average after a month of almost zilch ;) Thinking we could well see about 50mm by am tomorrow. Developing again out west with some cells in the radar hole, so more to come. Places just ...
by hillybilly
Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:09 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Just on 20mm here. Very happy with that for starters :P All models keeps showers and storms through the night, then a weak low pass through Bass Strait in the morning clearing things. Could be plenty more to come... Both ACCESS and GFS have the heavier most widespread rain overnight. Should see a de...
by hillybilly
Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:21 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

anyone in the south east see this wall cloud moving in? Very green and dark. Just went into it. Cloud ahead of it was moving east to west, cloud then change to west to east :o Black as night out here now with frequent rumbles. The most dramatic sky I've seen here in years. Now just waiting for it t...
by hillybilly
Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:39 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Radar looks great IMHO and GFS and ACCESS bring substantial falls across central areas next 12-24 hours. Can't see this one not delivering for us :D Across the models - seeing about 30mm in Ferny Creek by morning ;) Picked up the edge of a couple of cells - bout 4mm back home. 6mm 2km's to our east ...
by hillybilly
Thu Feb 12, 2015 6:11 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Forgive me if I get a little bit excited with the forecast for the next 3 days! Me too. Been a long dry time between "drinks" for us. No really scorching days, but lots of warm/hot ones. Got a little drizzle this morning and fog, again showing how humid this system is. Meanwhile, couple o...
by hillybilly
Wed Feb 11, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Just gone past 30C here with a DP of 19C. That's about 36 or 37C sea level equivalent. Dead calm... nice beach day if only we had one :P Waiting for this hot humid pattern to break down. Things are uncomfortably dry up here now with next to no rain for a month. Moderately hopeful that Fri/Sat and Su...
by hillybilly
Sun Feb 08, 2015 8:24 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Models have upped the rainfall for the week ahead. ACCESS and GFS look pretty good - maybe 10 to 25mm here - but EC stuck on about 5mm. Plenty of time to upgrade :D or downgrade :x Front just through here. Very very thick fog came in on the wind change. Viz down to about 20m... one of the thickest f...
by hillybilly
Sat Feb 07, 2015 9:17 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Died in the NW burbs :(
by hillybilly
Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:32 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Re: Warn to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Will the storms out west reach melbourne tonight? EC says no, GFS says yes. That said EC did have any storms in the west today... Case of watch the radar. There is a belt of convergence through the Melbourne region between the humid sea breeze and hot northeasterly. Fingers are crossed. Overall it ...
by hillybilly
Sat Feb 07, 2015 6:59 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards
Replies: 272
Views: 104189

Warm to hot and unstable: Feb 6 onwards

Long warm to hot and unstable period. Models showing a series of weak troughs which never really budge the heat, with the South bouncing from warm to hot, and the North hot, hot and hot. Bit unstable out there this morning with a couple of thundery showers. Best chance today is probably near the mid...
by hillybilly
Mon Feb 02, 2015 7:39 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: 27 Jan onwards - settled and mild
Replies: 44
Views: 22280

Re: 27 Jan onwards - settled and mild

Really frustrating system for us. Got 0.2, trace, 0.7 and 0.4mm across the last four days. Missed us to the east and west. Had a pretty rotten run out our way missing three events in the past three weeks :( Cool conditions so a nice change from the heat of summer - but the heat will be back soon. La...
by hillybilly
Thu Jan 29, 2015 7:08 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: 27 Jan onwards - settled and mild
Replies: 44
Views: 22280

Re: 27 Jan onwards - settled and mild

Watching that low throw up showers which keep,dying just southeast of here. Pretty common pattern for us... We can get rain from the southeast, but more often miss. One heavy shower is currently quite close so slightly hopeful ;) Getting notably dry here now. Grass yellowing/drying quickly on the sl...
by hillybilly
Tue Jan 27, 2015 12:48 pm
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: 27 Jan onwards - settled and mild
Replies: 44
Views: 22280

Re: 27 Jan onwards - settled and mild

Seems like the weather has been put on hold. Nothing much set to change for a week. Low gets close late in the week but stalls too far east. Shame as it's just starting to dry out again here after great rain mid month. Main things to watch for - a little low/cyclonic curvature feature tucked in the ...
by hillybilly
Mon Jan 26, 2015 7:24 am
Forum: Australian Weather Archives
Topic: Showers/rainband - 20-21 January
Replies: 25
Views: 13954

Re: Showers/rainband - 20-21 January

2.8mm overnight from a couple of heavy showers. Nice area of convergence just south of the city which is producing some small dumpers. Oddly, the band is moving west so could soon run over the top of the city. Out here, we may yet go into a western Port Bay feed of showers. Race against between the ...