Vic - Jan 25th - Feb 2nd dry, warm and hot

[occluded]

Just over 25 at home and light rain showing on the radar - roads are damp in the CBD with some light rain a bit earlier. Hardly any wind.

[Gordon]

Trying to recall if this is the first TFB day of summer for the Central District? Or have we had another one?

[JasmineStorm]

First one Gordon. It's been quite a humid summer.... without the big rain though.

Here is my 2 cents worth on the 10.30am sat pic. Should see things warming up again from lunchtime with the wind increasing and the light wet stuff breaking down . Wind gust of around 30km/h so far here and high 20's. Mallee near 40 now in quite a few locations.

[Gordon]

Thanks JS, I thought so. The radar echoes here are reflecting real rain, albeit light and patchy and barely recordable (so far). Still, it has to be helping reduce the fire risk, along with the mild temps - still only 25 C here and in Ballarat.

Hoping the spike, if it comes, is short-lived!

[Gordon]

Really shabby reporting by the ABC with this item updated a mere 40 minutes ago: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-30/h ... st/8222638

Particularly this line: 'The County Fire Authority said gusty winds and a high grass fuel load in areas around Melbourne, Geelong, Gippsland and Ballarat had increased the risk.'

The blanket, lazy approach when it's currently 23 C in Ballarat and raining and hasn't got above 25 C all day, just causes people to get complacent and ignore warnings when things really are dangerous. I expect this sort of sensationalism from the commercial networks but not the ABC . If they're going to be all excited about the dangers, then specify the areas in question, don't issue a 'catch-all' story.

[JasmineStorm]

Yes, agree Gordon.....

Trough just now passed through here and the wind has swung to west north westerly ATM. Had some gusts around 55 km/h at 12.30, pretty much as expected. Virga definitely capped the early heat, still high 20's.

Melbourne / Essendon airport clocking 70+ km/h not long ago. Looks like the Virga is almost through now, so it will be a breezy warm westerly afternoon ahead and a hot and windy one in the north.

[Geoff]

I expect this sort of sensationalism from the commercial networks but not the ABC

Really Gordon? You surprise me!
Journalists, Used Car Salesmen, Politicians, Real Estate Agents..... need I go on?
Still overcast and raining lightly here, 23C and muggy.
Looking at the obs from western Vic it seems winds are generally between 20k/hr and 30k/hr, so nothing worth mentioning so far, and temps seem to have stabilised or started falling now.

[Macedonian]

Temp peaked at 23.8 at my place and its back to 22.2 now.
Light spitty rain in macedon now.

[StratoBendigo]

Only made it to 33c here so far today. Westerly kicking in and temp dropping a little. Yesterday was far hotter.

[hillybilly]

24C for a max in FC so far. Just tipped over 0.2mm of rain (so not all virga.... but mostly so).

Pre-frontal wind change has come through.

Bit of a spike in temperatures to Melbourne's west so may well get a secondary max, depending on cloud cover.

Hot in the north. Canberra currently 38C (that's about 44C sea level equivalent) with low 40s on the coast and inland stretching into northern Vic

[JasmineStorm]

Strange old day. Cloud cap has been awesome to make humidity higher up here. Temps have gone back up to high 20’s with winds 30 to 40 km/h but feels nice and safe with humidity in the 40’s. Ballan fire took quite a few tankers to get under control.

Melbourne still spiking on temps and winds out west. Geelong and Avalon 32c and 50 to 60 km/h gusts in the last hour. City having a late run at the 30s. Change looks about 6 to 7ish in the city. Nasty day in the north east around Albury.

[Macedonian]

Wow, virtually no wind at all here today.
Its down to 21C now.
Yesterday was much hotter here than today

[Geoff]

Wow, virtually no wind at all here today.
Its down to 20C now.
Yesterday was much hotter here than today

Yep, same here Chris. It was a shockingly poor forecast for here this morning to be honest.
Can't win them all I suppose.

[Macedonian]

I wish every forecast hot day would be like this one!
No complaints here other than i dont have any (solar) hot water tonight! Lol!

[hillybilly]

28C at Ferny Creek so missed by just 2C so not bad in the end. Cloud was more extensive than all/most the guidance. The models were all pretty consistent on this one, and the models drive forecasts.

Very lucky today on and south of the divide, though basically as expected.

I recall a day back in the 90s when the forecast was for (about) 40C and a sneaky southerly came in overnight and temperature got capped with cloud. The end result was about 22C. Models have come a long way since then

Curious showery band back building to our west. Hopefully we see showers soon to settle the dust. Humidity just jumped to 100% and gone foggy. Shame we didn't have this humidity earlier..

Btw some crazy weather elsewhere. Heavy rain in southwest WA, and low/mid 40s in parts of Sydney with storms

[Geoff]

28C at Ferny Creek

Crikey, that's a huge difference from our 23.9C today, did you get some sun?
When I posted that AccessR chart yesterday for 11am today it seemed pretty clear that the cloud and rain were coming in faster than expected, seemed really odd that they forecast a sunny morning today.
Early next week looks promising, though EC has backed off a bit tonight.

[hillybilly]

The AWS Geoff. That's the target (as I understand it). We got 25C but tend to be cooler than Ferny Creek AWS. There was a series of spikes in gusts early with hot and dry air drawn down. My station wouldn't be able to capture these.

Rain here now...

[Dane]

Been Getting a few light showers over the last 2 to 3 hours. Over 1mm so far.

[hillybilly]

Moderate shower here ATM. Up to 1.5mm. Wishing it to continue...

Odd spot around Melbourne had near 5mm now from this week band. Good pick by ACCESS-R which showed shower thickening post change.

[hillybilly]

6mm here overnight. Happy with that... was thinking maybe 1 or 2mm. EC in the morning had 6mm for us (though then downgraded to 3mm).

Foggy and drizzly for much of the night.

Cooler day today