Vic - Feb 22 to Mar 10 2017 - Hot start, mild middle, then a very warm to hot finish to summer

[JasmineStorm]

Mid 20's and sun up here but a stronger southerly today which should cap things.

TC Blanche is born off Darwin http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD65011.shtml

Interesting little scenario that EC modelled this morning for the middle of March associated with ex TC Blanche and GFS thinks summer is about to peak again http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 054#p99054

[hillybilly]

Geez it's humid. Been up to 20C with a dewpoint around 17C. Fog didn't lift to about 1pm here. Managed 0.8mm of drizzle so kinda keeps things a little damp. Unfortunately the hills in South Gippsland block much of the showers in southeasterlies here.

GFS showing a decent low breaking trough into the westerlies for next weekend. Bit of rain as well. Fingers crossed we can get rid of this blocking setup soon. Unbelievable that these setups just given day after day of rain on the east coast, and day after day of near zilch for most of Vic.

[JasmineStorm]

Had 25c yesterday and very similar again today. Maybe more an east to south easterly today. That ECL is certainly going to hang around off NSW for a few days, blocking the high in. Might have to issue it parking ticket if it doesn't move by Thursday.

The anticyclones are certainly dwarfing the cyclones at the moment. That is a big high coming in next week according to EC's latest.

https://www.windytv.com/?100m,pressure, ... ,m:cBnaipt

[JasmineStorm]

TC Blanche is just hitting W.A as a Cat 2. Will be interesting where she goes from here. May assist us with some moisture on Sunday if she tracks a certain path..... confidence low.

[Sean]

Big dumb high after big dumb high. This current pattern is boring, boring, boring.

We need a change.

[JasmineStorm]

Very true Sean.... can't wait for this thread to be dead and buried.

GFS just modelled ex TC Blanche to be swinging past Victoria on Saturday afternoon. Haven't seen rain modelled for a while. A lot of water to go under the bridge before this comes off though. http://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html? ... :null:0#sc

[hillybilly]

Another warm humid one in FC. This feels like coastal Queensland in the "cool/dry" season. Nothing weather - just gusty trades.

Some hope in ACCESS and GFS that the pattern will give up on the weekend. Hopefully EC comes on board... and it then happens (rather than another model downgrade).

BTW real hot to our north - a few high 30s in coastal Queensland today (March records)

[WeatherViewer]

Latest ACCESS models have decided to ramp up the heat for this weekend, contrary to the cooler conditions forecast by BOM this afternoon.
Definitely an Indian Summer!

[hillybilly]

Latest ACCESS models have decided to ramp up the heat for this weekend, contrary to the cooler conditions forecast by BOM this afternoon.
Definitely an Indian Summer!

And backed off on the 12Z run. Reasonable consensus now across the models for the coming weekend with a messy surface trough and rather better upper trough. Not big falls, but models tending to show falls in the 5-20mm range though patchy. Latest EC has 10-20mm across Melbourne area which would be really welcome.

Cool gusty morning in FC with the air a bit drier. A warm sunny day again.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Breezes most of the night, flag is tangled..
Perfect weather days and with the rain we have had, enough water in tanks to keep things green till next lot of rain..

[JasmineStorm]

Starting to feel the Equinox closing in with the heat arriving later in the day now. Up to 28c now, probably heading over 30c once again with an easterly today. Same again all week. I’m pretty confident the only thing I’m registering in the rain gauge for the thread is a layer of reddish brown dust. I just checked the last 28 days and I've had 6mm. I’m doing a rain dance this weekend as the low approaches…..

[StratoBendigo]

Yesterday we only got to 29.4c which was the first day under 30degC for 8 days. Today looks like hitting only 29c too.

00Z GFS has cooler air pushing through on Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Then back to an ugly blast furnace Northerly later next week.

[Tassiedave]

It has not rained in Launceston for 17 days. Since the 22nd January Hobart has had just 12 mm of rain.

[hillybilly]

23C in FC yesterday and today looks like a repeat and the next day another repeat. Nice days here, but just sapping the moisture. Trees are dropping leaves quickly now... they had a good run through summer but now have too many on board.

Hearing reports of some pretty dismal long dry spells around Vic, for example Laverton has had just 4mm in the last month Short of records for most spots with decent station lengths. Bit of a worry as we often turn dry in autumn ahead of El Niño events...

Thankfully, weekend will bring a change. Latest EC, GFS and ACCESS all have a decent low for us.

[JasmineStorm]

A late 30.3c max here. Same again tomorrow..... the forecast for the next 7 days has a real summer look about it with heat, storms, rain and then heat again. That March 17/ 18th system is still looking biggish as well.

[WeatherViewer]

Reached a top of 32.2 here in Tarneit according to my PWS. More of the same tomorrow, Summer is still holding on

[stevco123]

11.7 minimum and 28.9 maximum here. Perfect!

[hillybilly]

24C in FC which would be perfect if it wasn't getting so dry Today looks like a repeat.

Little cooler for Friday and Saturday.

Next week looks like it might bring another warm blocking pattern.

[stevco123]

The interesting thing is that I have only made one 30 degree day this month. The average is four. But ofcourse, my average max is about 27 degrees (4 above average). It's all in line with the equinox if you ask me.

March is also the driest month down here on average.

Second half of March should change...hopefully anyway.

[StratoBendigo]

No sign of the heat letting up for the next 10 days. Will have to wait until after equinox for any change. Not unusual to have the first half of March being Summer, and the latter part being Autumn. It's just that this year it will drag on for longer...