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Victoria - Another weak front: May 6-7

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hillybilly
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Victoria - Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by hillybilly »

Another ho hum system with a cold front for the weekend. This one has fairly cold air, but is again moisture starved so rainfall will be mainly about the coast and ranges and showers. System is chilly enough for snow on the ranges, then frosty conditions inland as the next high moves in.

Expect South Gippsland and the Otways may pick up ok falls, but elsewhere will be a bit of a struggle. Chance of the odd coldie post front.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by JasmineStorm »

You stole my thunder Hillybilly :) I'd created a thread yesterday on the topic but all good, I've removed mine and let's go with yours ;)

2c again this morning, light dusting of ice. Tomorrow's front will certainly have a cold strong westerly behind it.

Side note: I'm seeing on the CFS model that the frontal conveyor belt is sending some big fronts towards us in the last week of May on today's 12z.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by Geoff »

JasmineStorm wrote: Fri May 05, 2017 8:21 am Side note: I'm seeing on the CFS model that the frontal conveyor belt is sending some big fronts towards us in the last week of May on today's 12z.
Yes JS, the latest AAO backs this up with a big negative forecast after mid month...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html
AWF Rainfall Details - Monthly rainfall stats. Please post your totals here at the end of each month, thank you
http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... &start=180
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by JasmineStorm »

Looking promising Geoff.

Good batch of cold air on the latest sat pic coming up with quite a few sparks on the front at 4.50pm. Should be nice and cold by tomorrow night. Tassie peaks will get a good dusting of snow Sunday morning. With the high cloud around, I think tomorrow morning might be one of those red sky morning sunrises :)
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by hillybilly »

You stole my thunder Hillybilly :) I'd created a thread yesterday on the topic but all good, I've removed mine and let's go with yours
Oh missed it.

Bit hard to get excited about this system. Thinking 5-10mm here. That said, could be the best event for a week or even two.

Going to get chilly post front with 850Ts dipping to around -2C. System does wave into a decent low, but mainly slipping just south of Vic.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by JasmineStorm »

Skinny band of showers moving up on Melbourne. I don't think much will get across the divide.

Some decent cold air this evening around 1000m and with the moisture available tonight in certain areas, Mt Donna Buang will see snow overnight IMO. Not enough moisture around for the Macedon ranges.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by hillybilly »

Showery afternoon here with a bit of hail. Not a lot in it... just 3mm so far. Mist drifting over the hill giving a real winters feel.

Cold air for tonight with dry air so going to get cold inland :? with snow showers on the alps.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by JasmineStorm »

Mt William in the Grampians @ 7pm now has the wind from the SW and down to 1.7c with a app temp of -7c.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by Geoff »

Plenty of showers piling in from the S/W but they seem to be struggling to get past the Otways at 8pm. Just not enough moisture to keep them going yet. :(
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by Skywalker »

Wet & windy night here on the island with constant showers pushing through.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by Macedonian »

3.5C up here now.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by hillybilly »

Not a lot of showers on the radar but seem like most have managed to come over Ferny Creek :D Frequent showers here overnight with numerous hail/graupel showers. Thick fog inbetween the showers and chilly temperatures.

Had just over 13mm so far, with a few more showers currently lining us up across Bass Strait and the Bay. Could well crack 20mm or more at this rate.

Would expect a fair cover of snow above 1000m around Donna Buang and Baw Baw with these streams.

Vic is going to go into warm air advection SW to S flow as the day goes on so should see showers tend towards drizzle. Wouldn't be surprise if this adds up in the foothills around central Vic.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by Tassiedave »

Vigorous cold front passed over Tasmania yesterday, rainfalls included Strahan 43 mm, Strathgordon 39 mm, Nugent 32 mm, Cradle Valley 29 mm, Tooms Lake 19 mm, Blessington 11 mm, Friendly Beach 10 mm, Launceston 4.8 mm, Hobart 2.6 mm, Devonport 1 mm
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by snowfall »

Not much rain here yesterday, just 0.5mm, but not unexpected in these SW setups. Down to 6.4c overnight and currently 8.1c. Beautiful sunshine this morning.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by JasmineStorm »

Squeezed out 0.6mm which is not surprising. Cool and Sunny with a few coldish nights ahead this week. Seems like a fairly settled week this week but then models go chaotic mid next week (May 18th onwards). EC on the 00z run yesterday went with a extraordinary weather event for SE Oz around May 19th but has calmed down a little on this morning's 12z. Access and GFS all think a big low might be somewhere close as well in that period. CFS has a very big set up at the end of the month.

Looks like New Caledonia will be brushed or hit by Tropical cyclone Donna tonight as a Cat 4. Very unusual for May 7th in the southern hemisphere.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by Horts »

20-25mm total in 24 hours in Safety Beach/Mount Martha from this event, been awesome. Stoked I fertilised the lawn Saturday morning! :D
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by Macedonian »

2.8C to a top of 8 here today and its back to 7C now.
Im doing a day on the gate of an open garden. Its freeeezing ;)
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by hillybilly »

Those showers just keep giving. Up to 21mm for the event. Max so far of 7C at our place, but expect it might go a degree or two better in the next hour.

MTD nearly 40mm now so off to a flying start locally.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by Macedonian »

Gee
Thats a cold day for FC Hb.
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Re: Another weak front: May 6-7

Post by hillybilly »

Thats a cold day for FC Hb.
Yep, topped out at 7.9C at our place. We are south facing and right at the top of the range so can be very cold in the right conditions. The AWS 60m higher briefly touched 9C (it is north facing so can often be a degree or so warmer than us).

Showers keep coming and now up to 22mm for the event :D

Looks like a chilly night though stratus and drizzle will keep it milder near the coast.
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