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VIC - Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

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Harley34
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VIC - Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Harley34 »

The latest BOM's 4 day forecast has a complex low with an associated trough and/or front developing in the southern ocean passing through Southern W.A and looking to affect Victoria and the surrounding states mid-late next week. Not sure on rainfall amounts or convective possibilities. Thoughts on this...?

Also, somebody I know who is into weather said late this month and June will be wetter and wilder than usual...
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Geoff »

I think you got the title for this thread right Harley34, the models are struggling with the details as there could well be a tropical link from Queensland with this system.
As for later in the month, there are strengthening indications of some strong fronts affecting our part of the world, the AAO or SAM index is showing signs of plummeting, which often results in good rainfall for us.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by JasmineStorm »

Thanks for the thread Harley34 ;) Been looking at this set up for a little while.... here is my 2 cents worth on the next 10 days.

Initially a weak cold front will slip through Bass Strait tomorrow followed by a developing low that will move over Tassie. A few coastal showers for Victoria with widespread rain for Tassie. This will be followed by a few stable days across the weekend into Monday with cold nights for most of Victoria including frosts about the ranges.

Then it gets very interesting. EC, GFS, Access, CMC, CFS and USNavy all believe a surface low will exist in the bight around Tuesday May 16th and will slowly track eastward. From late Tuesday, Victoria will start to see showers develop with the approaching low which will tend to more widespread showers and rain on Wednesday. An upper low then possibly strengthens with the surface low whilst receiving a moisture feed from the Coral sea which kicks off a secondary rain event later in the week, that could go nuclear around the Alps. At this stage, some models (EC and GFS) then have a 970’s hPa epic cold core cyclone developing in the bight around May 20th but it is still early to take too seriously …

We have a complicated little thread on our hands which has plenty of severe weather potential. Let the upgrades and downgrades begin :)
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by hillybilly »

EC and GFS look to be upping things as we get closer, while CMC and ACCESS are less convinced. Big slow moving system which will definitely give some spots big falls. Could be a season starter for crops further north and back in SA.

Month tracking very slow for most areas so will be playing catch up with this system.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by JasmineStorm »

EC and GFS have an equatorial fed water slide at the end of next week through Qld, NSW and Vic. Loads of moisture at 700 hPa if that comes off. Precip water around 30 to 35mm into Vic. This could be a major water bomb if the surface and upper triggers are in the sweet spot. The GFS 18z run just gone has also upgraded again in Northern Vic.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Tassiedave »

Today's LOW was a bit disappointing, very patchy but some OK falls in places. Fisher River 20mm, Sheffield 17 mm, Strahan 17 mm, Western Creek 11 mm, Devonport 10 mm, Deloraine 8 mm, Launceston 1.6 mm Hobart 0.8 mm. Still a few heavy showers around on the radar.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by stevco123 »

Raining down here. Thought we would have clear skies and mist to be honest
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by JasmineStorm »

The standard position wobbling of the surface and upper lows is taking place on each model run with big falls late Friday into next Saturday for NSW, decent falls north of the divide, moderate falls south of the divide in Vic according to EC and GFS 00z. Looking at 30 to 40mm for next Saturday here but the low position wobbling around will mean many upgrades and downgrades to come. To me at the moment this looks like a May 19th to 20th rain event.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Geoff »

Signs appearing in the models that this will favour northern Victoria and NSW, with southern areas largely missing out. Need to see a few more runs yet, still too far out.
Perfect autumn days here lately, colours peaking now on top of the Dandenongs, very late this year.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Dane »

Starting to look like a dry month, just 14.5mm's here so far - ave is 62mm's and not much rain in the outlook.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by hillybilly »

EC and GFS both showing some heavy falls for Vic with this system. Too early to know the details, but does looking promising. The details will be very important. There is a strong tropical infeed so rainfall will be plentiful provided you have upslide (basically look for warm air advection in the progs which is winds blowing from warm to cold).

Thick fog here this morning with light drizzle.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by JasmineStorm »

Still looking like a solid system for north of the divide. Most models currently showing significant rain shadowing on the southern side of the ranges. For Kyneton, EC thinks around 50mm at the moment. Potentially followed up by a north west cloud band around May 23rd

First significant polar attack showing on GFS for the start of winter http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.co ... 74#p100374 :)
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by hillybilly »

Messy system but generally holding in the progs. The cut-off south of WA ATM slowly moves east before weakening. It looks like throwing out some showery bands which will affect Vic from later tomorrow. The remnants of the low then get capture by a system to the west and comes through us as a slow moving trough with a good tap of tropical moisture. We then go into a prolonged showery period of westerly flow.

Looks like a wet sequence and models agree. Spot falls in the 50-100mm range, with most spots picking up a decent amount. Could well be a months worth of rain in it for many areas :D

Thinking it could well be quite unstable in the northeast to northwest flow, so expecting we could well see some rumbles. Unusual time of year for it :?

Pretty mild overall, but may become more wintery next week.

Thick thick fog across the eastern burbs this morning. Cloud top was around 200 to 250m so Ferny Creek was clear.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by stevco123 »

Can report some fog moving into Docklands as i type.

Could do some for some great photos
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by StratoBendigo »

Looks like we'll be in the firing line again later this week. Most forecast models are suggesting about 50mm. Yet again a system originating in the tropics looks set to deliver the goods. Incidentally, it hasn't rained here since Anzac Day.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Dane »

Some Fog moved in here at around 9am and then cleared about 9.30am
Visability was down to about 300 metres.
Some showers showing up on radar to the SE at the moment.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by StratoBendigo »

00Z GFS still holding steady on 50mm for this event.

Quite warm again today. Got to 18.7c. (About 2-3 degC warmer than normal for this time of year)
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by hillybilly »

Progs looking good for western areas but hitting a wall near Melbourne. Solid falls western, Wimmera and Mallee, with ok falls in north central and west central. A 100km shift in the progs would see central areas do much better.

Another clear night up here above the fog, but expect that will change as it slowly lifts. Yesterday it was clear here til mid morning then fog for the rest of the day.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by Skywalker »

It's a real pea souper out here this morning, first thick one for the year. Thank god I'm on school drop off duties this morning, otherwise I would of been riding in this. :sccary:
Having said that there's still a chance it might be still around at 8:50am.
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Re: Complex Low: 17/18th May - ?

Post by stevco123 »

I have had 1.2mm in dew the past week haha :)
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