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VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

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stevco123
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by stevco123 »

Next week's predicted heatwave needs a lot of things to line up which still has me predicting it won't happen (not saying that it can't happen). GFS has been producing extreme mid-range forecasts for a while now.

This same model was predicting snow to sea level about 5 times last winter and the winter before that.

I find that it likes to throw extremes out 4-7 days before an "event".

I'm sticking to my forecast of 28-32 for Melbourne, with a mild change next Friday, before a stronger front around the 27th/28th.

In saying that, keep a close eye on how far north that front will end up for next Friday as it will be the key on whether 7 Feb 2009's conditions are repeated.

it does worry me slightly that multiple models have hinted in at least one run that next Thursday could be VERY hot.
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Adam38
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Adam38 »

The BOM is forecasting temps to go back up to 40c+ across Melbourne next week.
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wolfcat
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by wolfcat »

Holy temp rise batman, the BOM added 5c to Thursdays forecast since this mornings run, I suspect it will go up further yet.
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Gordon
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Gordon »

A completely different BOM forecast for Ballarat for the week in terms of max temps from this morning (which to be fair is really yesterday afternoon's forecast): Sunday was 26, is now 28; Monday was 32, is now 29; Tuesday was 32, is now 34; Wednesday was 35, is now 29; Thursday was 33, is now 41!

It's been a similar story for most of the date range: obviously a real challenge for BOM to pick the northerly influence vs southerly (at least for southern Vic) even a day or two out.
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Sean
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Sean »

Adam38 wrote: Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:30 pm The BOM is forecasting temps to go back up to 40c+ across Melbourne next week.
Felt like gagging when I saw that. Fingers crossed it disappears. The last thing anywhere in this state needs right now is more heat.

On a positive note, some decent rain and rumbles earlier today. Didn't amount to much, but the best rain in weeks.
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hillybilly
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by hillybilly »

2.8mm of rain for the mini event. MTD is now 12mm (against a average of 70mm).

Week ahead is just more of the same awful weather. Warm to hot, then a blast of heat.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Friday Morning was a tad wet, made it very funny to be out in it..
made for some really fast running, picked up a stray lady walking,
yelling to her as we bolted through a park Here it comes, if you want a lift follow us,
A really tropical down pour,
windows fogged as 3 climbed in grabbed our breath and then asked her where do you want to go.
turns out she lives 6 doors down.
Dont recall a summer with house windows open for long periods, usually locking out a dry hot heat,
yesterday was tack pants and jacket again..
if only that down pour lasted 10 minutes longer..
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hillybilly
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Re: VIC: How Hot? 6 Jan 2019 - 18 Jan 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Australis(Shell3155) wrote: Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:09 am Friday Morning was a tad wet, made it very funny to be out in it..
made for some really fast running, picked up a stray lady walking,
yelling to her as we bolted through a park Here it comes, if you want a lift follow us,
A really tropical down pour,
windows fogged as 3 climbed in grabbed our breath and then asked her where do you want to go.
turns out she lives 6 doors down.
Dont recall a summer with house windows open for long periods, usually locking out a dry hot heat,
yesterday was tack pants and jacket again..
if only that down pour lasted 10 minutes longer..
Been a wierd flash drought here as we’ve had multiple thunderstorms with heavy rain, but each has only lasted a couple of minutes. If only one had lasted for 15 minutes it would be looking very different in the garden.
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