VIC - Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May 2019

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StratoBendigo
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Thu May 02, 2019 9:31 am

Dane wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 9:19 am
Thunderstorms in the early houirs of this morning gave most of Ballarat a good drenching.
Falls generally ranged from around 20mm's near the Airport (to the North) to over 30mm's
down south around Buninyong.
Airport got 19.2mm's in the 24 hours to 9am MTD now 27.6mm's.
I got 27.4mm's In Sebastopol MTD now 35.8mm's.
So already the wettest month of the year, lets hope we can get some good follow up soon. :D
Just 22mm for us so far. It's welcome but less than I was expecting.

But late next week it looks like a classic winter cold front and Bass Strait cut-off Low may affect Vic, which could be a great follow up.
JasmineStorm
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Thu May 02, 2019 9:55 am

Squeezed out another 5mm with that last band and up to 41mm now. NE is the next part of deluge tomorrow morning. Won't be much more here on the back end tomorrow night but totals may add up down in Melbourne's east and SE if the SW flow kicks in.

Yes SB, looks like another big upper cut off low in a week except more north east than this one and much colder. An eastern Bass strait / ECL / Tasman mid latitude cyclone. MJO and that negative SAM from mid April are delivering :)
snowfall
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Thu May 02, 2019 10:13 am

Picked up 17.3mm overnight to give an event total of 21.3mm. Very welcome! Great to see all the good falls in areas that have been parched for many months.
Macedonian
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Thu May 02, 2019 10:26 am

Now up to 30mm at Macedon and now 37mm at Mt Macedon.
Not enough to start Turritable Creek running again. That demonstrates how horribly dry it has been.
James
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Thu May 02, 2019 10:47 am

another dissapointer for this area, just a few distant rumbles and light showers overnight - is that really all for this area?
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hillybilly
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Thu May 02, 2019 11:14 am

12mm In FC so far. Should about double that on Saturday as we go wstly then swly late Friday into Saturday, so on track for a handy inch or so. Good to see most get a bit, and many get their autumn break :D Hoping for a decent follow up next week.
Adam38
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Thu May 02, 2019 12:28 pm

Very nice drop of rain, my neighbour had 20mm in the gauge so much more than I expected here.
QldTwister
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Thu May 02, 2019 12:28 pm

Wonderful event for many in N and W Vic with lots of 20-50mm falls, but sadly the far W and NW missed out again, and the dry rolls on

More heavy rain east of Echuca Melb late today and overight, NE Vic easy get 30-60mm tonight with the next wave of rain

Great event for many inland folk after record dry

Much more needed but

14mm here :D

This shows it really nicely
cant upload image so here is link
http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/flood/
Bring on the heat and stroms
PapaD
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Location: Hanging Rock

Thu May 02, 2019 12:33 pm

Got 34 mm at Hanging Rock for the event. About 20mm of that came from an intense storm about 4am.
Macedonian
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Thu May 02, 2019 1:04 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:14 am
12mm In FC so far. Should about double that on Saturday as we go wstly then swly late Friday into Saturday, so on track for a handy inch or so. Good to see most get a bit, and many get their autumn break :D Hoping for a decent follow up next week.
Just out of interest, i had never heard the term "Autumn Break" until i moved to Victoria.
I suppose as a native of the Sydney area where it rains all the time in summer it's not really a thing :)
Sean
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Thu May 02, 2019 1:07 pm

Only 12mm here. Wanted a lot more, but at least the heaviest falls fell in places more deserving
Sean
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Thu May 02, 2019 1:11 pm

Macedonian wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 1:04 pm
hillybilly wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:14 am
12mm In FC so far. Should about double that on Saturday as we go wstly then swly late Friday into Saturday, so on track for a handy inch or so. Good to see most get a bit, and many get their autumn break :D Hoping for a decent follow up next week.
Just out of interest, i had never heard the term "Autumn Break" until i moved to Victoria.
I suppose as a native of the Sydney area where it rains all the time in summer it's not really a thing :)
That term is gaining more and more relevance given these flash droughts of late.
JasmineStorm
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Thu May 02, 2019 1:18 pm

Upper low and 2 surface lows are now drawing moisture back down from the tropics as the cogs turn. Mid levels now have increased moisture again. Looks like the converging winds are on the far eastern edge of Melbourne Metro.
Gordon
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Thu May 02, 2019 2:16 pm

Macedonian wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 1:04 pm
hillybilly wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:14 am
12mm In FC so far. Should about double that on Saturday as we go wstly then swly late Friday into Saturday, so on track for a handy inch or so. Good to see most get a bit, and many get their autumn break :D Hoping for a decent follow up next week.
Just out of interest, i had never heard the term "Autumn Break" until i moved to Victoria.
I suppose as a native of the Sydney area where it rains all the time in summer it's not really a thing :)
The Autumn Break has been a big deal all my country life in Victoria (which is most of it). Farmers locally regard a single fall of an inch (25mm) after St Pats Day but before Anzac Day as the break. Their thinking is that too soon, and you risk a false break when the grass/ crop shoots but then dies during a subsequent warm/ dry spell; too late and there's not enough warmth for any significant growth. This break is considered a good one locally despite being late, because it's still relatively warm and should stay that way (frost free) for another week or so.

Btw, I've now had three reports from neighbours between Springbank, Warranheip and Millbrook who've recorded 70mm, 72mm & 79mm. Seems to be a lack of official gauges in this triangle and good falls here are often overlooked in BOM reports.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Thu May 02, 2019 3:02 pm

Radar colours looks to be a little more in line with us HB..
fingers crossed..
Sean
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Thu May 02, 2019 3:31 pm

Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 3:02 pm
Radar colours looks to be a little more in line with us HB..
fingers crossed..
Looks northeast-centric today. Rain and cloud look to be converging on the Mansfield area.

It's developing too far east for central areas. We might get some back building tho. So fingers crossed
JasmineStorm
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Thu May 02, 2019 3:35 pm

The big squeeze zone is taking shape beautifully through the centre of Vic and southern NSW. That cell just north of Cobram now has around a -70c cloud top :)
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mick
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Thu May 02, 2019 4:02 pm

I left, so now it rains and storms. I took one for the team, good for you.

No rain her ein the mid north of SA, 8mm in 6 weeks.
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mick
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Thu May 02, 2019 4:10 pm

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JasmineStorm
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Thu May 02, 2019 4:51 pm

nice and dry Mick.

The upper Low below S.A has jagged back west slightly bringing everything else with it in the last 6 hours. I love cut off lows :) This looks to me that the rain and storm line has moved back west 100km to what was expected. Interesting observing coming up in the next few hours :?
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