VIC - Cooler with showers in the south: December 10-15 2019

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Weatherzone has changes.. not impressed.

[hillybilly]

Cool day here with 0.4mm of mizzle in the gauge. Three more cool ones, then five warm to stinking hot ones. Not liking the progs which are all putting Vic into northerlies for Friday. Current temperature guidance suggests about 42-43C in Melbourne, and about 47C around Mildura. The Mallee looks like greeting three to four days in the low to high 40s

Btw that record OZ low is a reflection of network changes to some extent, as many of the alpine stations have only been reliably reporting for twenty or so years. Suspect there would have rather cooler December days in the last century. There are systems like the late December event in 1993 which put down around a foot of snow at Lake Mt which don’t appear to be in the obs. There was also apparently a heavy fall of snow including in Canberra on Christmas Day 1963. Unfortunately hard to get records back then, but sure they sit somewhere.

[stevco123]

Reminds me of last summer really, only this time the difference between hot and cold is more extreme.

[Rhys_34]

Am I missing something here? I understand why the ABC is latching onto and reporting any record breaking talk in regards to heat because of their AGW obsession but for the BOM to be talking about and I quote:
"It is not out of the realms of possibility that we could break our highest ever recorded temperature of 50.7C at Oodnadatta, which is in South Australia." is utterly ridiculous - there is not one of the major models that is predicting anywhere close to 33C+ temps at 850hpa around the 0-100m asl areas of inland or coastal areas of Australia next week that would be needed to go anywhere near breaking the 50.7C record national record. I thought the BOM were supposed to base their research and future predictions on solid data, not what headline looks like grabbing the most attention...

[StratoBendigo]

They seem to be a bit alarmist. It's not helping their cause, even though I agree that AGW is real.

Anyway, GFS looks rather ugly for 7 days time. Along the Murray River looks the worst with 45-47c possible. None of this 50.7c rubbish to be seen anywhere. EC more moderate too.

Make the most of cooler weather before next week I reckon...

[Macedonian]

Cold at my place this morning, 4.6C.
Yesterday was 6.3 to 13.4C , that's pretty close to the average mid july day in Melbourne.
Making the most of the cool and green before the furnace door is flung open next week.

[Jake Smethurst]

Please remain on-topic.

Another relatively cool start here. Got down to 12.5 overnight before an expected top today of 20. Making the most before next weeks heat.

Friday on current projections looking quite nasty, the AU models showing widespread areas at 40 or above.

[Skywalker]

Yep, not looking good at all Jake.
This will deliver the knockout blow to any uncured grasslands throughout the remaining parts of the state.

[Adam38]

Mid to high 40’s forecast for central and northern Victoria on Thursday and Friday...

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Need a new Thread for the heat coming,

[hillybilly]

Cool day here today, and tonight looks quite wet. Perhaps 2-5mm locally, and maybe more like 10mm about the tops of the Yarra Ranges and South Gippsland. Anything will be a bonus ahead of the beast coming next week

[Australis(Shell3155)]

43 Scoresby Friday 20th.
Looks like a day to move out..

[hillybilly]

43 Scoresby Friday 20th.
Looks like a day to move out..

EC has high 30s latest run. GFS similar. They are tending cooler for us as the change on Thursday packs a tiny bit more southerly. Could be a prog wiggle, or stick.

[Macedonian]

Sounds hideous.

[Sean]

A gross 47 in Mildura's bom forecast. Will surely downgrade. I'm actually quite surprised this air mass is managing to get so hot given some monsoon-esque activity through mid-northern regions.

Will be interesting to see how Melbourne fares in 5-6 days. As of the 13th, we're trending over 2c below average, I repeat, 2c below average.

[hillybilly]

A gross 47 in Mildura's bom forecast. Will surely downgrade. I'm actually quite surprised this air mass is managing to get so hot given some monsoon-esque activity through mid-northern regions.

Will be interesting to see how Melbourne fares in 5-6 days. As of the 13th, we're trending over 2c below average, I repeat, 2c below average.

Progs have hardly budged for days. Only question is does it wiggle east or west so hotter for Vic cooler for SA (or vice versa). Unfortunately the climate drivers are hideous. Severe drought, landscape across the nation that as no water left to evaporate, negative SAM which helped dry out the air and the trend. This current set-up is not unlike other big heat summers like 1939 and 2009. Not surprising that it's throwing up record heat (the reason its running ahead of those past years is simply because of the trend which just bumps everything up ).

[hillybilly]

Woke to a nice cool foggy and drizzle morning in the Nongs. About 3mm in the gauge, and getting occasional heavy drizzle showers so might yet scrape out 5mm. I need about 3mm more to fill my water tanks (which doesn't sound like much but comes to about 1,000 litres). Be handy to go into next week with them full.

Our month to date is a pretty dismal 19mm at this point. Really hope we get a decent rain event between Christmas and New Years to round out the year, otherwise January will be a worry

[Macedonian]

A gross 47 in Mildura's bom forecast. Will surely downgrade. I'm actually quite surprised this air mass is managing to get so hot given some monsoon-esque activity through mid-northern regions.

Will be interesting to see how Melbourne fares in 5-6 days. As of the 13th, we're trending over 2c below average, I repeat, 2c below average.

So nice to have a below average couole of weeks, its not much but in this horrible new climate it is a small mercy at least.
Its not going to last though.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

i was in the middle of saying.. saturday am that i woke to a fair amount of rain.
FC said 3.8 and Scoresby 0.8,
then my ipad battery died..

anyone know of a site to read off closer to me, I do wish for a WS but its not on the cards at present. ?