VIC - Warming trend with dangerous fire WX followed by rain - 27 Jan - 3 Feb 2020

[Dane]

Another 12.1mm's in the 24 hours to 9am today giving me 27.6mm's for the event.
Ballarat Airport had 8.8 mm's up to 9am event total there 22.8mm's
Already more than half the monthly average.
My YTD is 79.8mm's and Ballarat Airport is 92.8mm's
For the first 4 months of last year only 46.4mm's was recorded at the Airport
so exactly double that in the first 33 days this year.

[stevco123]

Around 67mm down here in January. Not as good as further north but the nature of storms (hit and miss) and the location seem to have played a big part. I feel like Cranbourne is usually too far south for any good storm development or for any current storms to keep their intensity

[snowfall]

Easily the best January here in some time. Finished the month with 146mm. Just slightly above average for the maximum temp, which came in at 25.5c, and slightly below average for the minimum temp, which came in at 11.8c.

YTD is 172mm and the summer total is 182mm. This is already about 30mm above average for summer, which is an amazing recovery from the dismally dry 10mm in December. And a complete turnaround from 2019, where we had just 72mm in the first 4 months.

[stevco123]

2.8mm so far this morning. A little unexpected, but still awesome

[Lucia]

Yes unexpected for sure. Quite heavy at times, the radar is not depicting this. Considering putting some heating on....14.8 here at present, a lot colder than we are used to lately with the humidity gone.

[Tassiedave]

Wowsers ACCESS G has a massive LOW ploughing through SE Queensland and Northern NSW a week from now.

[StratoBendigo]

Easily the best January here in some time. Finished the month with 146mm. Just slightly above average for the maximum temp, which came in at 25.5c, and slightly below average for the minimum temp, which came in at 11.8c.

YTD is 172mm and the summer total is 182mm. This is already about 30mm above average for summer, which is an amazing recovery from the dismally dry 10mm in December. And a complete turnaround from 2019, where we had just 72mm in the first 4 months.

Our Mean Max temp was slightly above average, Mean Min slightly below (overall Mean temp was right on average).

Summer rain total so far is 28mm. Still 60mm below average for summer.

[StratoBendigo]

Wowsers ACCESS G has a massive LOW ploughing through SE Queensland and Northern NSW a week from now.

Yeah, some big rain totals along the NSW coast in the coming week. I can't see it doing anything here with a strong High in the Bight ridging in. East Gippsland might get a bit.

[Sean]

Sydney’s forecast has me green with envy

[hillybilly]

Easily the best January here in some time. Finished the month with 146mm. Just slightly above average for the maximum temp, which came in at 25.5c, and slightly below average for the minimum temp, which came in at 11.8c.

YTD is 172mm and the summer total is 182mm. This is already about 30mm above average for summer, which is an amazing recovery from the dismally dry 10mm in December. And a complete turnaround from 2019, where we had just 72mm in the first 4 months.

Our Mean Max temp was slightly above average, Mean Min slightly below (overall Mean temp was right on average).

Summer rain total so far is 28mm. Still 60mm below average for summer.

Geez your area has done it tough. Hopefully something breaks soon.

[hillybilly]

6mm in FC today. EC had about 4mm for us so not surprised. It often slightly underdoes the topographical signal as the Dandenongs are steep and narrow so get smoothed our in the weather models. Locally, there has been nearly 10mm around Olinda so handy fall for February. We’ve just cracked 250mm for summer, which is around 5-10mm a I’ve average so fantastic. Now to crack 300mm please

Cold one with a max or just 12C for us

Btw in central Germany this week, and unbelievably our max was 14C yesterday and is meant to be 12C today. Houses have steep roofs built for snow Wonder if Frankfurt has ever had a February day warmer than a February day in FC before Flying over Europe there is barely any snow... from the Black Sea to Frankfurt I didn’t see a single patch. The locals are all dressed in snow jackets as if it’s cold, but with DPs near 12C and no wind, it’s actually mild and indeed sweaty if you walk any.

The Middle East was different with lots of snow in Iraq and the whole of Turkey cover in snow.

[Sean]

Not to mention NZ's south west getting smashed by the moisture straight from the pool that swept over SA and Vic.. 400mm plus

[snowfall]

Just 15.4c here today. Wind chill is currently 12c, so feeling chilly after getting used to the heat. Had a couple of light showers this morning, but only 0.2mm in the gauge. Still a bit of a way out, but maybe a few showers coming up on the weekend?

[Macedonian]

5C this morning and still only 6C now.

[snowfall]

Down to 7.7c here - rather cool for Feb!

[stevco123]

8.3 as a minimum here

[QldTwister]

Crazy Drive Mildura to Melb on Friday Thick Dust all the way to Bendgio just crazy bad and dry in N and NW Vic, Central areas have been so lucky last few months.

Chilly atm but looking forward to the warm humid air returning with showers and thunderstorms most days over N ad E Vic places that really need it

NSW and QLD likely to see widespread flooding in the coming weeks very very et pattern setting up there.

24mm here on the weekend

3mm yestetday

Almost 150mm for the year wet and green here

[stevco123]

Humid days coming up... Yuk

[Didjman]

Humid days coming up... Yuk

How much rain / Storms? BoM don't seem confident.

[Sean]

Humid days coming up... Yuk

How much rain / Storms? BoM don't seem confident.

Again, the trigger is the problem. The trough had been modeled to sweep central Vic, but it seems to have migrated northward

Hopefully there will be a slight wiggle in our favour. It would be a shame to waste these humid days, as the only thing they're good for is thunderstorms.

I wouldn't rule out some activity at this stage though, especially in NSW/Vic border towns and in the far east. After all, this rain event is looking like a week long affair, so anything can happen in that time.

(fyi, this event is linked to a prolonged drought in the north of NZ, with a blocking high delivering all the moisture to our eastern seaboard).