Cut-off Low transiting SE Aus 10-13 July

[Didjman]

Models are slowly converging on this scenario for the Weekend. The low is currently forecast to cross Vic/Tas with some models suggesting an ECL might form afterwards.

[Tassiedave]

Looks like a tough one to predict - models oscillating between 0-5 mm and 50 mm in successive runs.

[hillybilly]

Looks the focus is drifting north in the progs. Surface low stalls near the SA/Vic border while the upper trough amplifies into Queensland and then a deep low forms in the Tasman Sea. Progs have been jumpy and details will matter a lot, and are uncertain. Could see 2 or 50mm in the Nongs.

[stevco123]

Midday, and still a healthy fog hanging over me. Only around 7 degrees still.

[StratoBendigo]

Freezing in Nthn Vic atm. 7c here and just 6c at Mildura. Inversion in full swing.

[StratoBendigo]

Freezing in Nthn Vic atm. 7c here and just 6c at Mildura. Inversion in full swing.

[Tassiedave]

Records could fall! Mildura currently 6.4 degrees and Swan Hill 5.0 degrees. Records are Mildura (7.9) and Swan Hill (7.0)

[stevco123]

Very interesting tempa around the state today. Mildura and swan hill making it to 7.6 amd 7.0 respectively, whilst Walpeup only got to 6.6.

Currently 13.0 in the city and northern suburbs, but 7s and 8s down here already

[hillybilly]

Systems starting to look quite significant. The initial low stalls over Victoria and weakens then a strong upper trough amplifies into NSW and a major east coast low develops off the NSW coast. It looks like being a major rain producer with potential for big waves, storm surges and gales or worse on the east coast.

Victoria won’t be quite as extreme, but looks like reasonable rainfall (though patchy). Could be locally quite heavy about the ranges and Gippsland. We may get a wrap around from the Tasman Sea, though details will matter a lot as is usual.

Unfortunately is a a very mild system. Snow levels start out close to 2000m, and wiggle but don’t get very low. Perhaps dropping to about 1500m, give or take. A wrap around will be warm if it happens.

[hillybilly]

Should start to see showers and perhaps even the odd rumble move into Vic today. More extensive tomorrow. Progs are jumpy and divergent, so pretty uncertain. Incoming low stalls, upper trough amplifies and deep low forms on the east coast. Details will matter a lot.

[hillybilly]

Some showers and storms firing now. Might scrape the northern and eastern burbs if they keep on the same trajectory.

Progs tending to up totals. EC now has near 40mm for parts of central and solid falls out east. Big split, though, with models showing big differences so not confident.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Been just perfect @Mansfield, would have been happy with a storm but nothing so far

[StratoBendigo]

We managed to get under a dumper last night. 14mm in gauge.

[flyfisher]

There are going to be hits and misses. Dandenongs looking quite likely to be a miss going by the radar. At least at this stage.

[Didjman]

8.6mm and counting here

[drewgon]

30mm here in Nagambie since Midnight...!

Pretty unexpected more than forecast!

[Gordon]

Quite fascinating watching this one unfold in real time. It's a long time since I've seen the models struggle so much with the detail.

It must be a bit like forecasting in the olden days right now - watch the sky and see what happens . (Only a mm or so to report from here so far, but it does 'feel ' quite ominous.)

[Didjman]

We finished on 10.4mm for the moment. Not bad as everything seems to go around us atm.

[Hawker]

9 mm here, better than drizzle all day like last week.
Toss up for more or not

[wobbie]

Models look to be wiggling it northward and out to sea? Which means no dumping in East Gippsland unfortunately