Another strong front, October 23-25

[StratoBendigo]

Back to cold again today. Quite a long Southerly fetch.

Btw, 12z EC throws in a big rain event for Thursday-Friday. Potentially a massive end to October.

[Wilko]

11mm here
Nice follow up drop

[Blackee]

11mm here last night heavy for a time. Nice line approaching Melb!

[QldTwister]

Looks like everyone got 10-15mm last night around melbounre but rest of state got nothing

12mm here last night, makes 100mm for the month now, so wet and muddy around the place and more to come today and later next week.

Heat last 2 days so nice but back to cold winter drizzle today with more solid rain not far away later this arvo

Had few big rumbles last night while in bed that was nice to hear more places indeed

Almost repeat next week warm to hot next Wed Thurs then big front rain stroms then cool to cold

[James]

There were two very bright lightning bolts last night and rumbles, then heavy rain - was so nice to finally hear some thunder its been such a long time!

[Adam38]

Belting down again, I’ve had 20mm so far and it’s adding up quickly atm… very wet October with over 100mm so far. Sitting on 680mm for the YTD, almost 200mm over the long term average for Bacchus Marsh, the clay soil is saturated!!

[Didjman]

Just under 10mm so far. Not sure if / what we will get from this next lot.

[Tassiedave]

Tas rain since 9am: Kimberley 35mm, Nunamara 35mm, Mt Morriston 30mm, Upper Blessington 31mm, Miena 29mm, Cressy 29mm, Deloraine 28mm, Launceston 21mm, Tea Tree 18mm, Hobart 9mm

[Australis(Shell3155)]

12.29am Saturday was woken to one loud thunder clap,
I didn’t see the lightening, was torrential for split moment.

James we’re getting closer. Slow down the wishes of storms, I can still see the flashes and hear booms from the massive one, may have been 2020.

[hillybilly]

Couple of heavy showers Saturday arvo. Looked ominous and a few of the showers were thumpers, but with the showers tending to hug the land the bay wasn’t really acting in out favour. All up 4mm more, 16mm for the event and a chilly 10C for a max. We’ve now had 183mm MTD. Good October here, about 60mm above average. Lots and lots of storms, some severe to our north.

Potential for another substantial rain event later this week. Big rush of tropical air south ahead of a slow sharpening upper trough. All the models have solid falls, potentially heavy. I’ve often found the Cup Weekend often marks the peak of the low forming out of tropical I feed season here so timing would be about right

[hillybilly]

Btw went back through my storm records here. Here’s 2021 (thunder heard, hail spotted). The long term average here is meant to be 15 thunder days going off the historical Bureau records, though the count depends on having a diligent observer and is different if you use a 9am to 9am or calendar day count. I’ve always used calendar count which probably increases the total by perhaps 30% at a guess.

Jan 4 2
Feb 1 0
Mar 0 0
Apr 2 4
May 1 1
June 0 2
July 1 7
Aug 0 1
Sep 0 6
Oct 4 1

At this point in 2020 we had 18 thunder days, so down on last year.

So, in theory we are right on about average, but what we’ve really missed is the spectacular and we had barely any good coldies all winter. IMHO the best coldies actually happened in the April cold outbreak. I probably observe more storms here because the environment is so quiet so you can hear thunder from a long way away on some days. I have previously heard storms which have been as far away as Geelong under the right conditions.

The week ahead should add to this tally on Thursday

Apparently I’m moving to about the least stormy place in Australia but TBH I don’t believe the records. Howden has quite a lot of topography to the northwest which fires things up under the right conditions and also gets coldies. Be interesting to see what I record

[snowfall]

Rained here for most of yesterday, switching between drizzle and heavier showers. Another 13.6mm to make it 31.6mm since Friday night. Rain was tending to peak in parts of west Central and perhaps even a bit further here with some topographical enhancement. MTD is now on 171mm, so a bumper month. And YTD is 915mm.

Interesting stats HB. I don't keep thunder day records, but our last solid, intense storm was almost a year ago back in November 2020. Plenty of rumbles on Friday night, but I would consider that the more embedded type. With the current climate drivers, there may be a chance for some reasonable storms once we enter into some serious heating. For now, I am happy to have it cool!

[Tassiedave]

Tas rain: Nunamara 61mm, Deddington 54mm, Lewis Hill 44mm, Cressy 41mm, Launceston 36mm, Deloraine 30mm, Hobart 14mm

[Adam38]

25mm here for the event, both Werribee and Lerderderg rivers are up and flowing fast through town.

[weathergasm]

Apparently I’m moving to about the least stormy place in Australia but TBH I don’t believe the records.

Who knows, maybe climate change will work in your favour there.

[Pengaz]

4.5mm Friday night and 3.5mm last night for this thread. Have had a few showers here today but that has amounted to less than a mm.

[StratoBendigo]

No rain here since Saturday morning. Just dry and cold Southerlies.

The next system later in the week is throwing up all sorts of possibilities. Could be 5mm or 50mm. Roll the dice....

[hillybilly]

Apparently I’m moving to about the least stormy place in Australia but TBH I don’t believe the records.

Who knows, maybe climate change will work in your favour there.

Definitely one of the “safest” parts of Australia when it comes to climate change. Should see about the least warming and least change in cool season rainfall. Might even get a bit wetter overall Suspect the rapidly warming east Australia current will throw up increasing numbers of NSW type east coast lows.

1.8mm In the gauge this morning.

Next event on track for the weekend. Progs are pretty jumpy.

[StratoBendigo]

12z forecast model outputs are the most divergent I've ever seen 2-3 days out from the next rain event.

A dog's breakfast.

[James]

Yeah, they show massive storms and instability, then change to next to nothing, then massive again and today have backed off again, they cant seem to make their mind up - just have to wait and see what happens!