Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
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Location: FTG
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Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:24 pm

Zip….

Besides the wind ripping my tarp off - mid lightening and thunder…

Love a good storm but only when I’m not covered with 6m plastic trap..
snowfall
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 984
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:33 pm

Well the heavens opened. 22.6mm here after a few torrential storms. Heaps of lightning and thunder too.
Blackee
Supercell
Posts: 3769
Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2009 8:57 pm
Location: Elwood and Mansfield 370m

Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:24 pm

StratoBendigo wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:48 pm
Just very high-based cells with rain if you happen to be right under a very small downdraft. Very 'meh'.

A few active cells in the clear air out West, but even they're looking rather mediocre.
Geez, you're hard to please!

Best storm day of the Spring for much of Vic I'd say. Particularly central/north central. 12mm here bayside was a nice little top up with rolling thunder and lightening for several hours. Hopefully a repeat tomorrow.
Mansfield 370m and Elwood
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 970
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:59 pm

Blackee wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:24 pm
StratoBendigo wrote:
Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:48 pm
Just very high-based cells with rain if you happen to be right under a very small downdraft. Very 'meh'.

A few active cells in the clear air out West, but even they're looking rather mediocre.
Hopefully a repeat tomorrow.
Tomorrow looks better if anything.

Slight timing difference in the models, with EC favouring the afternoon, while GFS is favouring the evening. Both are indicating heavy falls and better steering. However, I think I’m going to miss out again… as the best activity looks to be around the north, east and northeast burbs again.

Hopefully it’s warm and sunny again tomorrow to give us the best chance.
James
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 990
Joined: Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:10 pm
Location: Boronia Central

Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:10 pm

Surprised to see the storms still firing in the western district even though the sun has gone down?
Gordon
Supercell
Posts: 2520
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:30 pm

Spectacular here most of the afternoon and still going. Only 11mm of rain in mainly short, sharp downpours, but doubtless double or triple that nearby. Best light show in ages.
Last edited by Gordon on Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 443
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh

Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:31 pm

Excellent lightning here for the last hour or so, slowly getting closer
Gordon
Supercell
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Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:33 pm

Golf-ball hail this afternoon near Bunninyong (about 20km from here). Pleased to miss that!
stevco123
Supercell
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Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:36 pm

Started off good early afternoon and then everything just steered north. 20 minutes of light rain and strong thunder and lightning, but that's it.

Hopefully tomorrow is better.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
93ben
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Templestowe, Victoria
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Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:56 am

I read somewhere that the action will start around 4pm in Melbourne today. :bringiton:
Macedonian
Supercell
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Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2009 10:44 pm
Location: Mount Macedon Vic at 870m above sea level

Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:19 am

Mostly missed the storm yesterday. We ended up with a few mm from the second round.
It was absolutely boiling compared to November. We had 27C yesterday.

My November was incredibly chilly.
Av max is about 16.8-17C at my place.
This year we only managed an av of 14C.
We had twelve days with single digit maxs, the coldest max was 6.9C.
We had one entire seven day period where it did not go over 10C at all!
Nov rainfall was 145mm and YTD is now close to 1200mm. Average annual rain is about 950mm, so we are doing well. Hope it keeps going through summer.

Good luck with your move HB. Will miss comparing conditions in FC to Mt Macedon.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:34 am

Macedonian wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:19 am
Mostly missed the storm yesterday. We ended up with a few mm from the second round.
It was absolutely boiling compared to November. We had 27C yesterday.

My November was incredibly chilly.
Av max is about 16.8-17C at my place.
This year we only managed an av of 14C.
We had twelve days with single digit maxs, the coldest max was 6.9C.
We had one entire seven day period where it did not go over 10C at all!
Nov rainfall was 145mm and YTD is now close to 1200mm. Average annual rain is about 950mm, so we are doing well. Hope it keeps going through summer.
Yes, similar. We had a storm coming in from the SW (unusual), which split in two to go around us. Hence just 2mm.

Our YTD is 620mm (annual mean is 550mm). Our wettest year since 2016 when we had 676mm all up.
Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1370
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:07 am

93ben wrote:
Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:56 am
I read somewhere that the action will start around 4pm in Melbourne today. :bringiton:
Yes the BOM confirmed this on 774 this morning
Anytime after 2pm should be good viewing
Mike
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 209
Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:18 pm
Location: Woodend 578m

Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:27 am

5.3mm here most of which fell in a single burst in the evening. Warm today and interesting when the sounding comes out compared to how it appeared yesterday
QldTwister
Cumulonimbus
Posts: 316
Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm
Location: Ashwood Vic

Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:26 am

NNW flow and Dps in the lower teens rather than mid upper teens never great but will def be stroms but rather a NE wind and 31/18 rather than 32/12

Nice convergence in SW Vic watch that go after lunch then rest of state during arvo and evening
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
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Thu Dec 02, 2021 12:30 pm

Managed to split it all yesterday. In the end about 1mm of mostly light rain. Lots of big booms and very dark in every direction but just fizzed.

Today looks more reliable, but as always Melbourne knows how to disappoint….

Bit distracted atm trying to gain entry to Tasmania. Cross border moves are quite the challenge :(
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
Posts: 970
Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:13 pm

I think I feel a bit of a southerly :|
dazrain
Cumulus
Posts: 82
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:39 pm
Location: Brighton East, Victoria

Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:49 pm

Southerly kicking in in Brighton.

It’s over.

No storms today!
Wilko
Supercell
Posts: 1370
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Highett, Vic

Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:47 pm

Here we go !
:bringiton:


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in parts of Central, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
Posts: 2294
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat

Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:55 pm

And right on cue the line of storms to our West is splitting to go around us. There must be some geographic force-field that keeps them away.

Incidentally, I think Bendigo has the lowest Daily Rainfall Record of anywhere in Australia. (88mm in 150+ years of records)
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