Deep low with storms, gales and heavy rain: Nov 30-

Didjman · Post by **Didjman** » Sat Nov 30, 2024 6:58 pm

32mm in 24 hrs here

Post by **hillybilly** » Sat Nov 30, 2024 7:22 pm

Drizzle picking up here now after a murky humid day. ACCESS-C has about 70mm here tonight so I’ll guess we will see.

Victoria basically tracked as expected. Great to see the Otways get some after a such a dry year. It’s very unstable over Victoria atm so would not be surprised to see rumbles next few hours. Btw Melbourne broke its dew point record again. 21.8C was the peak, so now broken the old record by more than 1C. Basically translates in 8% more moisture in the air than any previous November value.

Lighthouse · Post by **Lighthouse** » Sat Nov 30, 2024 7:30 pm

Almost 34mm at Aireys Inlet, our best total since January. Desperately needed. Hopefully a bit of follow up over the coming week. Still way below our yearly average so fingers crossed this humidity hangs around for most of the summer.

James · Post by **James** » Sat Nov 30, 2024 7:33 pm

Still hanging out for an actual thunderstorm here, so much humidity and opportunity for one but so much dissapointment.

Interesting today there was a severe thunderstorm warning for north of here in a little circle, i looked and looked at it and thought it couldn't be as there was no lightning or even strong echos on the radar or satellite....then within half an hour after everyone had got worked up about these "storms" it was cancelled....there was no severe storms, so not sure what was going on!

(models have been terrible lately as well, so much lightning and storms but never where its saying, goes to show how complex it all is and not the usual type of weather we have)

Post by **Blackee** » Sat Nov 30, 2024 8:27 pm

About 25 mm here in the NE today. Close to 100 mm for the last week or so. So wet, squelchy wet ground and all gullied flowing. Landscape looking refreshed and thankful. Interesting to see what the wraparound brings this evening from the NW

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Sat Nov 30, 2024 8:50 pm

hillybilly wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2024 7:22 pm Drizzle picking up here now after a murky humid day. ACCESS-C has about 70mm here tonight so I’ll guess we will see.

Victoria basically tracked as expected. Great to see the Otways get some after a such a dry year. It’s very unstable over Victoria atm so would not be surprised to see rumbles next few hours. Btw Melbourne broke its dew point record again. 21.8C was the peak, so now broken the old record by more than 1C. Basically translates in 8% more moisture in the air than any previous November value.

Since records began

Post by **hillybilly** » Sat Nov 30, 2024 9:45 pm

Torrential rain falling on the east coast of TAS atm. Inland from Bicheno a few spots clocked up over 100mm since 9am. TAS December record is 290mm so think that’s safe, mainly because the low is moving quite fast. SSTs off the coast here are exceptionally warm atm so lots of fuel.

Adding up pretty quickly around Hobart now

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Sat Nov 30, 2024 9:45 pm

13mm today (all this morning). That makes it 50mm for the past week.

Some rain near Swan Hill/Kerang on the radar. Meanwhile, 18z GFS and IC have little or no rain now forecast for the rest of the week. Very jumpy model outputs.

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Dec 01, 2024 6:45 am

Fantastic event overnight. 54mm here and still drizzling. Bit over 65mm for the week.

Pretty widespread 50-100mm for the area just south of Hobart.

Further north Gray with 208mm has seen the highest Tasmanian December fall since 1993. This system could have easily broken that record but the low has been moving too fast. Rain rates have been remarkable with all the warmth in the SSTs which are currently locally 2+C warmer than average so lots of fuel.

System is clearing to a messy, muggy and warm to hot weak ahead. Lots of weak troughs so not a lot of focus, but with moisture stuck in place anything that fires will be a dumper.

The odd shower for parts of Victoria and TAS, mainly later today, then a better trough Monday into Tuesday. The Tuesday system could well produce some rumbles, though timing isn’t great for Melbourne.

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Sun Dec 01, 2024 10:04 am

31mm here yesterday from beautiful soaking rain. That takes us up to 80mm for the week - very much needed after a dry 6 weeks.

Lucia · Post by **Lucia** » Sun Dec 01, 2024 11:20 am

Finished up with 67.5 mls for the month, and so far 951mls for YTD, so above average of 895mls,things are looking up tankwise, 3/4 full now.

Lucia · Post by **Lucia** » Sun Dec 01, 2024 11:21 am

Finished up with 67.5 mls for the month, and so far 951mls for YTD, so above average of 895mls,things are looking up tankwise, 3/4 full now.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Sun Dec 01, 2024 10:49 pm

Nothing like those numbers here sadly. 38mm for November (average 85mm). At least we beat our driest in our 28 years here of 31mm in November 2006. YTD is 511mm. Driest is 544mm, again in 2006. Hoping to better that.

Week total is 40.5mm - a godsend, but a lot less than most.

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Dec 02, 2024 6:43 am

Gordon wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2024 10:49 pm Nothing like those numbers here sadly. 38mm for November (average 85mm). At least we beat our driest in our 28 years here of 31mm in November 2006. YTD is 511mm. Driest is 544mm, again in 2006. Hoping to better that.

Week total is 40.5mm - a godsend, but a lot less than most.

It’s been such an odd year with very strong gradients across both Victoria and Tasmania. The northeast burbs of Melbourne are a touch above average for the YTD while the southern and western burbs are way below average. Western Victoria is locally having one of the driest years on record. There’s been a few big events, which have tended to favour more eastern parts of central. Abnormally warm temperatures are not helping for those experiencing dry conditions. We’ve got used to it almost always being above average, but even so the warmth has been remarkable with spring just gone the warmest on record for land temps and probably (need to wait for November data) oceans around Australia.

Warm to hot day today. Showers later, picking up overnight. Continues warm and on and off unsettled for much of the week. Friday currently looks like it could be another wet one.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Dec 02, 2024 10:23 am

Bendigo YTD is 497mm which is just 50mm below the Annual mean, so we are closing in and may exceed it in the coming week or so.

Looks like 15-20mm possible tonight, and potentially a very very wet Friday if some of the forecasts verify...

Australis(Shell3155) · Mon Dec 02, 2024 2:25 pm

scoresby 20-40mm friday...

Lighthouse · Post by **Lighthouse** » Mon Dec 02, 2024 3:27 pm

The absence of cold fronts seem to be impacting the rainfall patterns of Western Victoria, as they've been doing in South western WA for a while now. Those rain bands that come down from the north rarely deliver for the Surf Coast, although Saturday was an exception. 21mm for November against an average of 59mm. At least December is off to a great start but we will finish the year about a third down on annual rainfall.

Sean · Post by **Sean** » Mon Dec 02, 2024 5:24 pm

Lighthouse wrote: ↑Mon Dec 02, 2024 3:27 pm The absence of cold fronts seem to be impacting the rainfall patterns of Western Victoria, as they've been doing in South western WA for a while now. Those rain bands that come down from the north rarely deliver for the Surf Coast, although Saturday was an exception. 21mm for November against an average of 59mm. At least December is off to a great start but we will finish the year about a third down on annual rainfall.

The lack of winter fronts, especially organised fronts, is really impacting annual tallies, esp out west as you note.

These humid systems are helping to buffer YTD, but it’s central/east being favoured.

I’m curious to see how the future plays out. Victoria might increasingly advance toward a humid continental type climate.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Mon Dec 02, 2024 6:35 pm

Sean wrote: ↑Mon Dec 02, 2024 5:24 pm
Lighthouse wrote: ↑Mon Dec 02, 2024 3:27 pm The absence of cold fronts seem to be impacting the rainfall patterns of Western Victoria, as they've been doing in South western WA for a while now. Those rain bands that come down from the north rarely deliver for the Surf Coast, although Saturday was an exception. 21mm for November against an average of 59mm. At least December is off to a great start but we will finish the year about a third down on annual rainfall.
The lack of winter fronts, especially organised fronts, is really impacting annual tallies, esp out west as you note.

These humid systems are helping to buffer YTD, but it’s central/east being favoured.

I’m curious to see how the future plays out. Victoria might increasingly advance toward a humid continental type climate.

That won't happen until we move 1,000km further north. We've had these periods before (even before official records began). It's cyclical and will return to how it was. Maybe not next year or in 10 years, but eventually

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Mon Dec 02, 2024 9:06 pm

26mm here for the weekend and more rain tonight and tomorrow another 10-20mm with higher falls liklely

Was in Mildura over the weekend had a huge thunderstorms on Saturday belting rain thunder lightning so good

Also they have had 100mm up there for November most in the last 10 days things are very green up there and wet and rained again last few hours up there with more to come crazy wet period for some.

Nice hot day today and humid night with rain on way after midnight, wet AM on the way maybe storm to north and east of city tomorrow.

Wed/Thurs nice warm sunny

Friday hot humid very stromy day and heavy rainband at night easing Sat

Cool dry Sunday