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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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Dane
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by Dane »

Nothing here in Ballarat. I have been noting thunder days (Days of Thunder Heard) since 1972.
In Melbourne mostly in the Eastern South Eastern suburbs, longest locations were Ferntree Gully 1983 to 1997
and Cranbourne 2002 to 2018.
The Overall Yearly (all years from 1972 to 2018) average was 18.5 days of thunder heard a year.
My Cranbourne average was 17.9 days a year.
Since moving to Ballarat the average is 13.5 days a year.
Not as Thundery as Melbourne the storms often form to the east of Ballarat then move across Melbourne.
This was the case again today had a brief shower about 7.30am but not enough to register in the Gauge.
Looked at the Lightning tracker about 9.30am and it was showing some strikes in Metro Melbourne.
We definately get less storms than Melbourne does
D
Dane
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by Dane »

Nothing here in Ballarat. I have been noting thunder days (Days of Thunder Heard) since 1972.
In Melbourne mostly in the Eastern South Eastern suburbs, longest locations were Ferntree Gully 1983 to 1997
and Cranbourne 2002 to 2018.
The Overall Yearly (all years from 1972 to 2018) average was 18.5 days of thunder heard a year.
My Cranbourne average was 17.9 days a year.
Since moving to Ballarat the average is 13.5 days a year.
Not as Thundery as Melbourne the storms often form to the east of Ballarat then move across Melbourne.
This was the case again today had a brief shower about 7.30am but not enough to register in the Gauge.
Looked at the Lightning tracker about 9.30am and it was showing some strikes in Metro Melbourne.
We definately get less storms than Melbourne does
D
Dane
Supercell
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Posts: 1675
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
Contact:

Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by Dane »

Nothing here in Ballarat. I have been noting thunder days (Days of Thunder Heard) since 1972.
In Melbourne mostly in the Eastern South Eastern suburbs, longest locations were Ferntree Gully 1983 to 1997
and Cranbourne 2002 to 2018.
The Overall Yearly (all years from 1972 to 2018) average was 18.5 days of thunder heard a year.
My Cranbourne average was 17.9 days a year.
Since moving to Ballarat the average is 13.5 days a year.
Not as Thundery as Melbourne the storms often form to the east of Ballarat then move across Melbourne.
This was the case again today had a brief shower about 7.30am but not enough to register in the Gauge.
Looked at the Lightning tracker about 9.30am and it was showing some strikes in Metro Melbourne.
We definately get less storms than Melbourne does
D
Dane
Supercell
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Posts: 1675
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by Dane »

Nothing here in Ballarat. I have been noting thunder days (Days of Thunder Heard) since 1972.
In Melbourne mostly in the Eastern South Eastern suburbs, longest locations were Ferntree Gully 1983 to 1997
and Cranbourne 2002 to 2018.
The Overall Yearly (all years from 1972 to 2018) average was 18.5 days of thunder heard a year.
My Cranbourne average was 17.9 days a year.
Since moving to Ballarat the average is 13.5 days a year.
Not as Thundery as Melbourne the storms often form to the east of Ballarat then move across Melbourne.
This was the case again today had a brief shower about 7.30am but not enough to register in the Gauge.
Looked at the Lightning tracker about 9.30am and it was showing some strikes in Metro Melbourne.
We definately get less storms than Melbourne does
D
Dane
Supercell
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Posts: 1675
Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 9:51 am
Location: Sebastopol 420m ASL
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by Dane »

Sorry for the multiple posts.
I kept getting an error message saying post was unsuccessful.
Obviously they wernt :x
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weathergasm
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by weathergasm »

A few big rumbles in Berwick, a brief period of heavy rain. Wish the front arrived just a few hours later, but oh well :)
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Gordon
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by Gordon »

If ever there was an argument for BOM to split Central into two forecast districts: East Central and West Central, today provides it! :(
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Lighthouse
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by Lighthouse »

I agree, the difference in the climate between east and west central is the widest disparity in any forecast district. Nothing of note in Fairhaven again today and the rainfall forecast looks non-existent. Cape Otway in the south-west had their driest year on record in 2024. Is this just cyclical or the new normal?
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weathergasm
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by weathergasm »

Gordon wrote: Wed Jan 15, 2025 6:33 pm If ever there was an argument for BOM to split Central into two forecast districts: East Central and West Central, today provides it! :(
The difference in climate is extremely stark when you look at any annual rainfall map of Melbourne. A place like Little River in the west gets about 1/4th the rain that Belgrave in the east gets, for instance. So yeah I totally agree.
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hillybilly
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by hillybilly »

Cracking storms here this afternoon in two bands. Heaps of rumbles. Not very normal for Hobart :o . Some hefty falls in quick time. Band of burbs just south and west of the Hobart CBD scored locally over 25mm, with peak intensities as high as 10mm in 10 minutes. That’s around the 5% AEP or one in 20 year intensity. Reports of local flash flooding. Nice surprise for the gardens.

Down here south of the city have scored a handy 10mm, to add to the 13mm on Sunday. Month ticking along nicely.

Btw remarkable pick by EC today which picked exactly the storms and their timing.
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wobbie
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by wobbie »

A bit of (loud) morning thunder here and not much else. At least the house is cool. Very jealous of Sydney right now as usual
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QldTwister
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by QldTwister »

Sydny and NSW got smashed yesterday some very intense impressive storms there

Yesterday morning brought booming thunder here again, woke me up but only a little rain, then those storms got much bigger as they got east :(

Thats it now for a week or so, chilly today, mild tomorrow, back to warm to hot sunny weekend early next week bring on heat though not looking hot hot hoping can get low to mid 30s for few days.

Dry rolls on for many :(

Eyes on Wa next few days to week see what the tropical lows TCs do and if they impcat us late next week
Bring on the heat and stroms
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hillybilly
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by hillybilly »

Odd shower overnight in both Hobart and Melbourne. Not much in it. Now a pretty unexciting week ahead. Becoming quite warm. Could be a low about this time next week.
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hillybilly
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Vic Trough with possible showers and storms Jan 9-12

Post by hillybilly »

Not much showing up in the progs but chance for a trough with showers middle of this week. Will start a thread. Progs not spectacular and a bit jumpy.

Could be a rather hot start to February, but too far out to put much weight on the models.
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