Tropics day to day weather talk

Event discussion and analysis for Australia's northern tropics, including day to day weather and tropical cyclones.

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scott12
Cumulus
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Joined: Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:35 am

Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:14 am

Not looking good at all...I think Dormant might be on the money....greater than 80% chance of less than average rainfall for the rest of the year...

But at least we don't have bushfires to contend with...

I just hope we see some decent action during January...

[urlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/summary][/url]

Sounds like a world first YS...a woman being wrong I mean... :D
Last edited by scott12 on Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Raindammit
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Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:12 pm

Horrendously dry at Bilyana, November average is 183mm and we've had 1mm.

If this keeps up it will far and away be the driest November on record, the next driest was 37mm in 2016.
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28degrees
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Location: Chillagoe

Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:18 pm

scott12 wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:14 am
[urlhttp://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/summary][/url]
Might have to move over west and join Popeye.
Hickory
Stratus
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Location: Far Nth QLD

Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:46 am

Raindammit wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:12 pm
Horrendously dry at Bilyana, November average is 183mm and we've had 1mm.
Give it another 4 weeks, or so, and I think we'll see some rain worth calling rain.
Going on past years,- storms should build more frequently on the western tablelands.
Just how many make it over the escarpment and down to the coastal flat land remains to be seen.
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ayasifiedshak
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Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:17 am

scott12 wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:14 am

Sounds like a world first YS...a woman being wrong I mean... :D
Oh, i didn't say she was wrong, i just said she lied! 🤣😂😁
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.
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scott12
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Wed Nov 20, 2019 1:00 pm

Raindammit wrote:
Mon Nov 18, 2019 9:12 pm
Horrendously dry at Bilyana, November average is 183mm and we've had 1mm.

If this keeps up it will far and away be the driest November on record, the next driest was 37mm in 2016.
Yep was down that way a week or so back and it sure does look terrible....just ripe for bushfires really....they were burning off Gould island when we were out there a couple of weeks back..

Thanks for the clarification YS...…..not a world first after all...lol..
Dormant
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Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:37 am

I really hate it when I hear the faint momentary sound of the equivalent quantity of less than a bat's liquid effluent lands on the roof and the BOM's prediction for rain has come true, albeit uselessly.
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scott12
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Fri Nov 22, 2019 9:54 am

Yeah its frustrating alright....cloudy and humid here this morning with showers showing on the radar off the coast to our SE..

I fully expect them to peter out before they reach us though...
Dormant
Cumulus
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Location: FNQ

Sat Nov 23, 2019 3:06 am

Oh, my goodness, what's that noise?
Oops, someone left an upturned bucket under the eaves.and we got 3mm.
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scott12
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Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:58 am

I'd be happy with 3 mm today ..it feels like rain but not much showing on the radar..

Someone said they felt some raindrops 50 m from my shack the other day....didn't hear anything on the roof so maybe it was just your bat flying over the top of them, Dormant..!

Its just nuts whats going on here at the moment....
[https://www.tropicnow.com.au/2019/septe ... html/quote]

these guys now have contracts on 200 properties along the beach with the contracts to be settled over the course of the next 12 months.......so mayfair has to continue to raise investment to settle the properties and pay the rates/upkeep etc and then hope they can artificially inflate the market so they can resell them at a profit.....

It just sounds like a big ponzi scheme....
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ayasifiedshak
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Mon Nov 25, 2019 12:10 pm

there was a few spits around am on sunday, and we had about 1/2 mm on Friday night,
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.
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28degrees
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Location: Chillagoe

Mon Nov 25, 2019 4:33 pm

As you might imagine, nil mil at Chillagoe.
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ayasifiedshak
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Mon Nov 25, 2019 4:35 pm

i know this is not in our are, but just saw this.

HURRICANE WARNING 014 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 250210 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8 SOUTH 169.7
EAST AT 250000 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.8S 169.7E at 250000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY
250600UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.9S 170.1E AT 251200UTC AND NEAR 13.8S 170.2E AT
260000UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 013.
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.
Hickory
Stratus
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Location: Far Nth QLD

Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:15 pm

ayasifiedshak wrote:
Mon Nov 25, 2019 4:35 pm
i know this is not in our are, but just saw this.


TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8 SOUTH 169.7
EAST AT 250000 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.8S 169.7E at 250000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING.
Fiji has come up with a nice simple name for this one. ;)
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scott12
Cumulus
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Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:20 am

Wow we actually had some showers over the last 12 hours....probably just a few mm's though and when I weeded in my Taro patch this morning the soil was still dry...

Looks like being a hell week with 34-35c predicted early on....not going to be much greenery left around after this..
Dormant
Cumulus
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Location: FNQ

Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:45 am

Same here, Scott, barely a trace. Seems like we're not getting hot enough for the thunderstorms to build inland. - nice thought isn't it, 36 would probably do it if it doesn't do us and our plants first.
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ayasifiedshak
Cumulus
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Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:46 pm

there was a good light show to the south of Tully last night, we sat out and watched the lightning (could even hear some rumbles in the distance).
2mm over night.
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.
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scott12
Cumulus
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Joined: Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:35 am

Tue Dec 03, 2019 11:24 am

yep it sure was a nice surprise sitting out at the reef having a few cold ones on Sunday evening watching the stormage along the coast...one down tully way and another around mourylian…..I thought it might be the start of something moist but the forecasts dont show much in the near future except for persisting hot and dry conditions.....

Now up to level 3 water restrictions here on the Cassowary coast.....no sprinklers and only hand held hoses 3 days a week for 2 hours in the both the morning and afternoons......
Dormant
Cumulus
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Location: FNQ

Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:22 pm

Well, all I can think is the sluice boxes may be running at South Palmer River, but no thunderstorms here....yet.
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scott12
Cumulus
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Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:49 am

Hopefully next week Dormant the storms will make it to the coast....bit of moisture forecast for the coral sea so maybe we will finally start to see a bit of rain..
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