VIC: Jan 9-13 2018 - Warm to Hot with a thundery trough and change

[JasmineStorm]

Gradual heat build up and then the Friday change. Models have been really up and down with this set up but at the moment the prefrontal trough on Friday peaks around the East of central areas before a strong cold front follows in behind according to the latest EC run. There is plenty of moisture and potential with this set up (W.A ex cyclone assisting) and a slight change in timing with the trough and front could put central areas into the angry anvil zone. EC currently has 65 knots at 700 hPa east of the trough .... this could support a launch of super cells. It going to go big somewhere in Vic if EC is correct

[Tassiedave]

Wow - check out the NW Tas radar. We had a stock standard weakish cold front come through this morning then on the back end of it heavy rain has developed with what appears to be some sort of LOW.

[Gordon]

Nice work Tassie Dave - could do with a bit of that 'bonus' rain here!

Speaking of which, I've posed a question http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/fo ... 00#p103600 for JS and hb, but really for anyone else about why we are just west of the rainfall 'line' in La Nina summers to an almost ridiculously precise extent?

[93ben]

It looks like it's all going to plan with a cyclone expected to form off the Kimberley coast in WA tomorrow at 8pm and intensify from there possibly bringing moisture to Victoria.

[Tassiedave]

Rainfall in Tasmania today: St Helens 40 mm, Gray 16 mm, Mt Arthur 15 mm, Grindelwald 9.6 mm, Scottsdale 8.0 mm, Launceston 1.2 mm

[hillybilly]

Been watching this approach in the progs, and hoping they would settle down and up totals. Instead with each run some models go up and some go down.

My current take. Warm/hot/humid Thursday, becoming windy with plenty of cloud and some rain on Friday. Should see a rainband of soughts, but a risk that much of it will slip south of Vic over Tas and Bass Strait. Thunderstorms likely late. Saturday/Sunday then brings a good southerly change, with a low developing in the Tasman Sea. Could even see the odd flurry at Baw Baw, and some coldies through East Central and Gippsland.

I'm anticipating about 20mm in FC, but could do better. City probably 10mm give or take. The east could see some bigger falls with the low.

Is so much uncertainty on the details, with the precip water incoming very high, but the uplift just not really meeting it. The storms on Friday arvo could be a bit capped by mid/high level cloud, and then the showers in the SW'ly may or may not be so widespread depending on whether the flow is cyclonic or anticyclonic.

[JasmineStorm]

Good summary HB.

Models have been really jumpy on this for a week. Big moisture levels Friday but the triggers keep moving around. EC similar to yesterday with hot spots on the Eastern ranges and not centrally.

Convective towers associated with the W.A low pressure system are really firing at the moment, so I would expect TC Joyce will be born soon. It's movements will have a flow on effect to our thread in the next 24 hours with regards to moisture.

[Skywalker]

Looks like yet another non-event coming up for the moisture deprived western desert. Getting pretty desperate for some rain as the tank is now bone dry & I'm totally reliant on the mains to keep the gardens alive.

Back down to the island tonight for the next couple of days so I may see something down there later in the week.

[hillybilly]

Nice upgrade across all the models overnight. They are all now behind a quite general rain event for southern and mountain areas. Is pretty complex: big tropical infeed for Friday but not a greater trigger, amplifying upper trough pushing through later Friday into Saturday with a burst of heavy showers, then onset of a cold, moist and blustery swly airstream with plenty of showers and coldies later Saturday into Sunday. Wouldn’t surprise to see 30-40mm here under the current scenarios and the odd fall to near 50mm at spots like Baw Baw.

Quite hot today, and hot to very hot tomorrow north of the rainband. Then chance for the odd flurry on the alps by late Saturday.

Starting to dry out across central and western Vic after a couple of dry and warm/hot weeks so fingers crossed this one delivers.

[JasmineStorm]

Access R showing low's 30c and 20c dew points around Melbourne tomorrow after with a 50mm precip water value. EC showing good energy still in NE and eastern parts of Victoria with significant upper winds. Still hard to pick this one but there is a tonne of moisture

[JasmineStorm]

BoM now getting on board for tomorrow. That 60 knot upper level wind at 700 hPa has them thinking supercells as well.

' Thunderstorms possible statewide FRIDAY. Severe storms possible with heavy rain, large hail or damaging wind; the likelyhood of or severe phenomena is higher in Central and Eastern areas. Supercell thunderstorms a risk in the east '

[Skywalker]

We are just outside the edge of that red shading on the thunderstorm forecast map. If current conditions are anything to go by we could be in with a chance.

Currently sitting on 29c with 51% humidity.

[Gordon]

That chart looks horribly as if our place will be just west of the 'decent rain/storms' line... again. That would be the sixth time this summer .

[Sean]

That chart looks horribly as if our place will be just west of the 'decent rain/storms' line... again. That would be the sixth time this summer .

It's really annoying how east-centric these systems are

[Gordon]

I wouldn't mind so much if we missed by one or two hundred km; it's constantly missing by as little as 10 or 20km that's tough!

[93ben]

I wouldn't mind so much if we missed by one or two hundred km; it's constantly missing by as little as 10 or 20km that's tough!

Lol I know how you feel. I live in Templestowe and my place was struck badly in that Big Hail Storm the week before Christmas! Would've rathered it to not be at home. Thankfully my car didn't get damaged that night as I was in Belgrave. But my brother's girlfriend's car now have hail dints all over it! So in the end I would rather it to miss us lol. Those storms are better off in the country/outback not suburbia.

[Tassiedave]

Wow next Thursday/Friday look very hot!

[jimmyay]

Bring on the heat

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Not a pleasant am, opened up to cool the house down and the temp went up,
Very lights spits @1am, liking the chances of storms this afternoon being a weekend is a bonus along with no school pick ups.

[hillybilly]

Stinker out there this morning. Mid to high 20s, blustery and overcast with rain drops flying like bullets. Strange combination. Was 23C at our place at 6am at 560m with 0.2mm of rain.

Geez anywhere which gets a break in the cloud today will see temperatures take off, with temps approaching 45C in southern NSW almost touching the Vic border. Further south, rain mainly this arvo into the evening.

I'm struggling to see storms for FC. Too much cloud, uppers too hot, and surface trough coming through mid arvo. That said, every model has a different timing and spread of rain so plenty of variation. Precipitable waters mainly in the 40-50mm range which is high but a bit short of record territory (Vic records tend to be in the 55-60mm range, with January 2011 holding the top value by some margin). Would love a storm, so hope to be proven wrong.

Tomorrow looks like a pretty classic strong summer "cold outbreak". Cold, wet and windy. The uppers are marginal for snow in the alps, but could get the odd flurry. Models tending to put 20mm+ through central areas with that so should be a good drop.