VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

[hillybilly]

Progs uniformly have it fading in the coming hours. Question is how far east it gets and how quickly it fades. The current development near Ballarat is well ahead of the bulk of the models, so not sure whether this will be short lived and fade, or signal the storms are going to jump forwards. Cells over Melbourne's east have died, as the cirrus blows over and the subsidence ahead of the main event kicks in.

EDIT> Cell just fired over Melbourne's west. Looks hopeful this one will broaden.. Looking at GFS which seems to have the best handle the convergence is just slightly west of Geelong. It's running 50km or more ahead of GFS. The storms are moving quite quick near Geelong, about 40km an hour. Put them in Melbourne in an hour or so if they hold together.

[Sean]

Anyone in Lara? Thing might get exciting.

Looks like it's going to stay a bit far north for people in Geelong

[James]

the thing you have to remember is that the radar is just that, a wave bounding off ice crystal etc...

just because nothing shows on radar, it does not mean that nothing is there - it just means at a certain level there is not enough reflectivity.

There is plenty of cloud developing where nothing is showing on the radar yet.

To really judge you need to be flipping between visible, radar and any number of other tool available, as each tells a slightly different story.

[Jake Smethurst]

The Sheoaks cell is nasty. Doppler had some very interesting returns on it during last little while. Sheoaks has also seen nearly 22mm in quick time! Definitely also moving more E than SE in my opinion. Will be interesting to see what else develops in the area.

EDIT: That main band does appear to be weakening as it moves closer (as models suggested), but hopefully it can hold itself together.

[Adam38]

Blowing a gale here from all different directions.

[JasmineStorm]

Avalon footage is giving the impression of mesocyclone development. Doppler suggesting similar. Also a rogue right hander in front of the mothership on radar.

[StratoBendigo]

8mm here so far. Just caught the edge of it. AWS missed out as usual.

[hillybilly]

Dopler showing the outflow is running about 30km ahead of the Geelong cluster pushing up new cells as it runs into the synoptic easterly. These mesoscale convergence effects are not usually captured by models, so next couple of hours in central is more or less about the obs.

Explains why the rain is running well ahead of the models.

[Sean]

Just looks like a rainband now, perhaps 10 or so mm on this side of the bay?

[mick]

Just looks like a rainband now, perhaps 10 or so mm on this side of the bay?

Youre going to get smashed but not as smashed as frankston.

[Adam38]

Flangfest here!!!

[Timster]

Steady rain only.... 4mm so far, not as heavy as I would hoped

[Sean]

Just looks like a rainband now, perhaps 10 or so mm on this side of the bay?

Youre going to get smashed but not as smashed as frankston.

Not quite as confident here. Storms are weakening, which means rain is going to be rather light.

[tonycynic]

Still warm and humid here but breezes are picking up in the tree tops. Nice evening to sit in the shed with a glass of red and watch it all happen. Have fun out there people.

[Didjman]

Nice evening to sit in the shed with a glass of red and watch it all happen.

Just what I do on storm nights! While sound and vid recorders do their stuff

[hillybilly]

Feels like a sauna up here with a humid easterly. Convergence is now aligned through about Melbourne. Should fire in the northeast burbs then towards Kinglake. Of course, being so complex it may do something completely different.

[Horts]

Little bit of Mammatus from Safety Beach over the bay looking towards Indented Head

20190206_185211.jpg (1.72 MiB) Viewed 7029 times

[stevco123]

Just watered the garden in anticipation of a dry night ahead. 1 to 2mm won't do much.

[mick]

Just watered the garden in anticipation of a dry night ahead. 1 to 2mm won't do much.

LOVE the reverse psychology, it works on the weather a treat.
Get out and wash the car too!

[stevco123]

Just watered the garden in anticipation of a dry night ahead. 1 to 2mm won't do much.

LOVE the reverse psychology, it works on the weather a treat.
Get out and wash the car too!

Did that too. she looks a beaut.NOTHING can ruin the cleanliness now that I've left it outside...