Vic - Antarctic cold wave 7 - 16 Aug 2019

[JasmineStorm]

Good question Temp difference between the bay and 850 hPa At 4am will be around 18c. Ideal for cold convection and increased energy to drop levels very low. Melbourne suburbs will need to be around 3c to be a chance in my opinion

[JasmineStorm]

For those who like looking at obs, keep an eye on King Island. Coldest air will arrive there between 10 and 11pm. If it drops below 6c, the airmass is colder than models have projected. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT60801 ... 4850.shtml

[BringOnTheCoolChange]

What EC model do you all look at?

[hillybilly]

Can’t quite believe I’m saying this but....do we think there’s a realistic chance of snow in Melbourne tomorrow morning? 525/ 526 dam is sea level snow surely?

Reckons it’s about 2C to warm. I have found sea level snow really needs something below 524. Sometimes 526 is mentioned, and you can definitely see it lower (or higher) than thickness values suggest but they generally work pretty well.

EC has it dipping to 5C in the city which is about 2C too warm.

I saw it snow in the CBD on September 5 1995. That was on the 10th floor on Lonsdale Street so perhaps 50m above street level. Some people reckon it snowed to street level that day, others not. There was pretty consistent reports of snow in Brunswick just north of the city. That day had a minimum of 3.5 and a maximum of 9.2C so icy for September.

[hillybilly]

What EC model do you all look at?

Look here. An amazing resource.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/vi ... 1100z.html

[stevco123]

I would have thought it'd be 5 or 6 degrees already for it to drop to 2 or 3 degrees by morning to have any chance of snow at sea level by tomorrow morning.

Either the airmass moving in will be remarkably cold to drop the temp another 5 degrees from it's current 8, or this thing is a fail.

[Daniel]

King Island down below 6c between 10pm and 11pm as Cold Pool affects the island may still further drop. So likely airmass COLDER then projected by the models. Currently 5.7c as at 10:20pm

[Macedonian]

Snowing lightly here now, temp is on 0.8C.
Mt Macedon Rd is currently as busy as it normally is on a weekend day. Lots of crazy people out tonight.

[93ben]

Snowing lightly here now, temp is on 0.8C.
Mt Macedon Rd is currently as busy as it normally is on a weekend day. Lots of crazy people out tonight.

I'm sure the same would be with mount dandenong

[snowfall]

King Island down below 6c between 10pm and 11pm as Cold Pool affects the island may still further drop. So likely airmass COLDER then projected by the models. Currently 5.7c as at 10:20pm

It’s now 4.5c at King Island. Currently 4.0c here with showers coming through and a wintry windchill of 0c.

[93ben]

King Island down below 6c between 10pm and 11pm as Cold Pool affects the island may still further drop. So likely airmass COLDER then projected by the models. Currently 5.7c as at 10:20pm

It’s now 4.5c at King Island. Currently 4.0c here with showers coming through and a wintry windchill of 0c.

If you look at it, it's dropping dramatically. This could be really interesting come daylight tomorrow

[Wilko]

It’s about to get really interesting
SWesterlies and cold airmass coming inbound to Melb metro

[93ben]

Fine hail shower going through olinda atm

[Didjman]

4c here. No precip since midnight

[93ben]

Snowing now in olinda

[Didjman]

Initial frontal band just getting here. 3c

[stevco123]

Radar showing nothing is coming towards this way

I really hope something develops as the temp is still falling

[93ben]

Proper snow in the dandenongs now and the really cold air hasn't reached yet!

[Daniel]

Initial frontal Boumdary has just moved through Mt Danadenong and after a brief mix of snow and rain in Olinda. As the coldest air starts to move in should peak by 4am. Just had a snow shower with more cells moving off the bay Round 3 should be soon and hopefully more intense.

[Dane]

Snowing in Sebastopol temp is 1.2c and still falling.
Light cover on the ground.
Tell you what snow its beautiful stuff.