Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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Looks like a short lived warm then hot then cooler sequence for early next week. Thankfully, not a lot of wind. Temps looks toastie but not too remarkable for summer - likely mid/high 30s south, high 30s to perhaps 40+ in the north. Hotter across the border with 44C on the forecast for western Sydney ATM
The change late on Monday/early Tuesday looks mostly dry with barely any moisture available. Perhaps the odd high based shower/storm and a bit of coastal drizzle behind the wind change.
Sean wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:10 pm
We sure are dodging bullets at the moment... the country is hot everywhere except southern vic and tas. Is this SAM related?
Sure is! From the Warming event over Antarctica back in August / September. The Westerlies are fanning hot air over NSW / Southern QLD - hence the fires and smoke in the Tasman.
Sean wrote: ↑Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:10 pm
We sure are dodging bullets at the moment... the country is hot everywhere except southern vic and tas. Is this SAM related?
Sure is! From the Warming event over Antarctica back in August / September. The Westerlies are fanning hot air over NSW / Southern QLD - hence the fires and smoke in the Tasman.
Wil this SAM related pattern eventually break down? It seems to have a tight hold over us thats for sure.
WeatherViewer wrote: ↑Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:09 am
Wil this SAM related pattern eventually break down? It seems to have a tight hold over us thats for sure.
Yes it will eventually over Summer. Here is a link to monitor it:
Tas max temps today: Cressy 25.1, Launceston 24.0, Fingal 22.9, Tunnack 22.1, Hobart 19.2, St Helens 18.8. In the last 30 days Launceston has had 7.8 mm of rain. In the last 38 days Mt Read on the West Coast has had 889 mm of rain.
Tassiedave wrote: ↑Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:58 pm
Tas max temps today: Cressy 25.1, Launceston 24.0, Fingal 22.9, Tunnack 22.1, Hobart 19.2, St Helens 18.8. In the last 30 days Launceston has had 7.8 mm of rain. In the last 38 days Mt Read on the West Coast has had 889 mm of rain.
More than double Melbourne's YTD
Another spike tomorrow before the mild weather returns.
Waiting for a good rain, but it's been a dry old year and I suppose it'll finish that way.
Toastie 34C here. That’s about 38C sea level equivalent. Thankfully a one day wonder, and back to cooler weather for a few days. Would love to see some good rain in the outlook, as Vic is starting to turn in a hurry, but looks lean.
Tassiedave wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:42 am
Gee the latest ACCESS G run indicates the continent will absolutely cook next Monday to Wednesday.
EC is the same. Looks awful. Mid 40s poking into southern OZ, high 40s locally further north. Last thing the country needs Would expect at least two or three mid 30s in Melbourne going off EC.
Reached 35c today. Cool change now making its way through, with the temp progressively falling. Currently 29c. Turning into a dry month, with little rain on the horizon and only 3mm so far for the month. It has browned off here now. It was still green this time last year, but maybe the pattern will shift a bit once the positive IOD breaks down, presumably around January. Current SST anomalies are perhaps suggesting this process is beginning.
Macca2395 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:10 pm
The forecast for Perth this week is shocking!
Looks horrible.
This week is going to be a stinker for a lot of the country. Many inland centers will be approaching their December all-time records, and this comes after Australia's lowest ever maximum summertime temperature at Thredbo. Meanwhile, Darwin's matched its all-time December high, while it'll be 18c tomorrow in Melbourne after 38 today. We're only a third of the way through December, what else awaits, lol? (hopefully rain)
Mizzle and fog here this morning. About 0.2mm in the gauge. Looks like the next few days will be similar with a cool swly flow. The ridge is quite close so showers will be mainly coastal and squeeze. Will start an inbetween thread to cover it.
Next week looks shocking. EC has around 32, 40, 38, 30C for Monday to Thursday in the city. More like 39, 42, 45 and 45C for Mildura Proper front is not really showing up, so not clear when it clears out