March 8-9: Upper trough with some rain?

[hillybilly]

Starting to look like we might get the first “state wide” rain event in a while, though not particularly big falls. Upper trough to our west sharpens up and draws in a good feed of moisture that can be traced back to those remarkable storms that affected WA last week. The precip water values are decent, potentially peaking near 40mm. Progs mostly showing 3-10mm, with spot falls over 15mm. It runs along its axis, so will tapper away to the north and south. If you are lucky it could rain for a while.

Thinking 5-10mm in the Nongs, which will be very welcome.

Interesting that the system doesn’t sweep away the moisture, and may get swept up by a strong front next weekend. Models starting to show potential for a substantial rain event about six days from now

[hillybilly]

Glorious day in South Gippsland yesterday with light winds, warm sun and small waves. Water clarity was amazing - not sure why but never seen it so clear here. Would guess the lack of rain and strong winds has a bit to do with it, but not sure of the details. Made for amazing snorkelling conditions (gotta get that under water camera).

Woken by rain here in Wallerville with 0.4mm in the gauge Guess that’s a start. Tis still green here and in the Nongs, but dried out a lot.

Today looks half promising. Upper trough is quite sharp and moves through during the arvo so will be helped by the diurnal cycle. Models edging totals up, with spot falls of 25mm now showing up in the EC and UK. Most spots more likely to see 2-5mm, but fingers crossed,

Precip water values are healthy near 35mm so comes down to the forcing. Not out of the question that we could get the odd rumble during the arvo, particularly central and east though not a lot in it.

[Gordon]

4mm to 9am here - first actual rain (as opposed to drizzle) for nearly 4 weeks. Still raining lightly now. (I always like a rain surprise, but this wasn't forecast: BOM said 0-3 mm this afternoon - bumped up to 0-6mm now, but forecasting while it's actually raining doesn't count. The hillybilly forecast looks like being more accurate.)

[Adam38]

6.8mm in the gauge at home, not to bad.
Up here in Murwillumbah it is 29c 65% humidity and cu towers are starting to pop up.

[snowfall]

A very modest 2.8mm here so far. Looks like a period of drizzle/light rain may set in for a little while here, judging by the radar, but whether it adds up to much more, I guess we'll see. Still, it's better than nothing, and we definitely need something after 5 weeks of dryish weather!

[Mike]

5.3mm here today. Nice

[Sean]

February never fails (at being boring), but March seems to be a little more eventful.

I wonder if Melbourne's most reliable meteorological pattern/feature of late -- the autumn break -- is kicking in? Generally we have to wait until April it seems, but next weekend is looking decent. Today's rain did basically nothing.

[hillybilly]

Funny day with it looking like it was going to be a bust going off the radar, but the rain and drizzle just keeps on streaming and is adding up nicely. Good pick by the models (particularly EC) which had this area of light rain and drizzle stalling over us for a few hours as the upper trough slowly pushes through.

7mm here so far which makes our wettest day in four weeks We had 6.6mm last week and 6.6mm the week before. Looking like there is a couple more hours in it so may well go past 10mm and perhaps get close to 15mm. Almost an autumn break here if we get on the upper end.

Patchy around the state, with better falls along the northern slopes and now out through east central.

Cracking system starting to firm for Friday and Saturday. Storms Friday and a thundery rain band for Saturday. Could be heavy falls with a bit of lucky

[jimmyay]

Do we even need an autumn break this year...it’s been pretty cool and damp all round since January there’s not much to break....

[Didjman]

6.6mm here. Was not expecting to crack 1mm lol. We might even get 7!

[snowfall]

9.2mm all up here. This afternoon’s drizzle and rain turned out to be reasonably productive. Might be a little more drizzle to come, but otherwise great to have a wet day after the dribs and drabs of the last few weeks.

[QldTwister]

Great weekend but back to cool to cold today with cloud mist and drizzle sure lots of this next 9 months lol

Thurs and Friday looking great and maybe a storm about and humid

Big strong front on Saturday first of many hopefully, def see and feel the season changing though was never really a summer this year, shame flooding rain and storms werent the reason for it.

For weather lovers good to see weather to watch this week

5mm so far of light rain and drizzle

[hillybilly]

Just on 10mm in the gauge. MTD is just shy of 20mm here, so month suddenly looking a lot better.

Fog and drizzle has rolled in this morning with warm air advection swly flow ahead of today’s front. These systems can really dump drizzle this time of year with a warm Bay and Bass Strait, but are fickle. The low levels need to be moist, the stratus capped by an inversion but not too low, and typically a km or two depth to the cloud. Today ticks those boxes, so might surprise. But the difference between 1 mm and 10mm can be hard to pick. Thinking we might get another 5mm or so here.

Looking around some decent falls with this one, and certainly the best for many for a month.

Friday looking good. Our first storm outbreak in a long time Saturday brings a dramatic front with the chance of some alpine flurries come Sunday.

[StratoBendigo]

7mm here yesterday. More than I was expecting since we managed to get under a downpour around 2pm yesterday.

The coming weekend doesn't look that convincing to me . More a Southern Vic system really.

[Gordon]

Up to 8mm here, maybe a bit more to come in drizzle, but already much better than forecast.

A good result; was getting crispy dry on top here despite the cold, so its nice to keep the surviving grass green and the trees and shrubs healthy.

[Pengaz]

7mm here from drizzle and rain yesterday evening, good soaking stuff.

We’ve had more drizzle showers rolling through here again this morning. They’re increasing if anything so feeling it’s going to be a wet day here.

Love having your explanations HillyBilly, we get a lot of our rainfall here from these drizzle events. They tend to carry more body than the conventional rain events...

[hillybilly]

Scored 4mm more drizzle so finished on 14mm. Nice mini break. Tis funny that quite a few of our autumn’s up here get a “break” through unconventional events which then get showery follow-up.

Unless we get a late blast of heat that will keep us damp now, with some follow up in the offering on the weekend. That one is fading a bit in the progs, though still has potential for areas east of about Bendigo to Geelong.

[snowfall]

Had another 1mm overnight to give us 10.2mm all up. Models are looking ok-ish this evening but not brilliant, but there’s still a few days to go.

[Adam38]

Ended up with 10.7mm according to the gauge, epic lighting up here atm ( whole sky lighting up every few seconds) on the Tweed coast... unfortunately I have to travel to get my storm fix nowadays

[hillybilly]

Ended up with 10.7mm according to the gauge, epic lighting up here atm ( whole sky lighting up every few seconds) on the Tweed coast... unfortunately I have to travel to get my storm fix nowadays

Been like that. Not sure it’s the worst storm season we’ve had (we did get a few rumbles and those epic coldies back in January and isolated super cells in February) but it has been lean.

Thick fog here this morning. 0.4mm more in the gauge.

Models bounced a bit for the weekend. Bit of time so might wiggle yet, but 10-25mm apart from the far west and northwest. Best falls in the usual wet spots.