James wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:32 am
Yeah, they show massive storms and instability, then change to next to nothing, then massive again and today have backed off again, they cant seem to make their mind up - just have to wait and see what happens!
Don’t believe it until you see it on radar, and even then assume it’ll flatten out or split by the time it gets to you. That way everything that does happen is a pleasant surprise.
I view rain and storm forecasts for Melbourne as just a heads up to pay attention and nothing more.
Yep, the pattern all over again where the forecasters were warning of big storms, the storm chasing pages on social media all worked up about the models, then the downgrade and change of forecast again. (just like the time before and before that)...which is not forecasting its falling for it again!
I tried to mention this to a partic storm chasing page on social media that the models they were looking at, would inevitably change and probably massively downgrade - i was almost banned on the spot for pointing that out.
Its the same pattern week in week out, I do think the models have been notoriously unreliable, more so since covid19 - someone suggested there were less staff or monitoring going on which was affecting it, who knows.
Everyone i know now says they do not pay any attention to the forecasts as it always changes by the day, and i agree. I just wish people / social media pages / media would stop deluding themselves that we can predict things to that level, but watch it all happen again next week (yes the models are predicting a deluge and end of world scenario)...but doesn't it always?
Time for a new thread. Nasty system with northerly gales, heavy rainfall in the west, storms, and then storm force southerlies through Bass Strait. Biggest northerly for a long while
Looks like Melbourne and east may miss the bulk of the rain but get the wind
