Big rain event 12-14 October

[Didjman]

97mm here so far

[Onetahuti]

59mm all up for here.

[Tassiedave]

Tas rain: Great Lake East 213mm, Mt Barrow 189mm, Fisher River 173mm, Lake Augusta 154mm, Sheffield 113mm, Gray 99mm Scottsdale 77mm, Launceston 37mm, Hobart 4mm

[hillybilly]

Yep, not the time. Climate change is real, humans caused it, and it is a problem. Don’t know why this would be an issue on a weather site.

Keep your attributions of weather events to climate change sites please. Weather is driven by forcings millions of times larger than CO2 forcing. The earth rotating in the solar field results in a 1300W/m2 change in 6 hours. CO2 changes has caused 2W/m2 in 100 years.

Your numbers are wrong,

When you are arguing with experts from NASA, CSIRO, ECMWF, UKMO, Australian Academy of Science, World Meteorological Organisation, Bureau of Meteorology, and every other Met service and credible science agency on the planet you are either brilliant or wrong.

Please stick to the weather and observations.

[hillybilly]

Tas rain: Great Lake East 213mm, Mt Barrow 189mm, Fisher River 173mm, Lake Augusta 154mm, Sheffield 113mm, Gray 99mm Scottsdale 77mm, Launceston 37mm, Hobart 4mm

Stunning numbers. The 213 is 7mm off the Tasmanian record. Some rain inbound so might challenge it. It’s unusual to get these rainfall totals outside of the northeast corner (Gray area).

Just shy of 25mm here.

Northern Tasmania has mostly fallen just short of 2016, but still bad. Victoria situation looks bad.

More heavy showers and storms this arvo, but hit and miss.

Another system brewing for middle of next week.

[StratoBendigo]

Latest on Loddon River is that it won't be as bad as 2011, but will go close.

This is going to take weeks to recover from for some areas. And I hope next week's system doesn't happen.

[windyrob]

Yep, not the time. Climate change is real, humans caused it, and it is a problem. Don’t know why this would be an issue on a weather site.

Keep your attributions of weather events to climate change sites please. Weather is driven by forcings millions of times larger than CO2 forcing. The earth rotating in the solar field results in a 1300W/m2 change in 6 hours. CO2 changes has caused 2W/m2 in 100 years.

Your numbers are wrong,

When you are arguing with experts from NASA, CSIRO, ECMWF, UKMO, Australian Academy of Science, World Meteorological Organisation, Bureau of Meteorology, and every other Met service and credible science agency on the planet you are either brilliant or wrong.

Please stick to the weather and observations.

The numbers are evidently correct, the point you are missing is that they relate to weather, not global climate. As for being brilliant or wrong the answer is neither. The nature of a profoundly gifted mind is as indiscernible as the internal workings of black hole. Both are considered singularities.
So who is more likely to be correct? A profoundly gifted polymath who identified a discrepancy between equilibrium thermodynamics and climate change theory, and confirmed the error by testing it against observations (empirical falsification), or everyone else?

50mm here in frankston south. Over 100mm for the 10 days after a dryish september. Good for the thelymitra orchids I'm studying on the side (including 5 undescribed species)

[Pengaz]

Another 28.5mm here, takes us to 48mm for the system. Amazing event.

Surprised we scored so well last night, really thought it was going to clear more rapidly. After our extremely wet August, this keeps things saturated underfoot. We don’t need anymore.

A bit of warmth and I’ll be consigned to mowing twice a week…

[Didjman]

Just saw footage from Seymour. Whole shopping precinct under water.

[snowfall]

54mm all up here.

Went to bed last night to a loud chorus of frogs. They're still going now, obviously loving the swampy conditions out there.

[stevco123]

40.4mm for the event.

Not significant but still closing several roads in the area due to flooding thay hasn't happened in over 10 years.

The ground is drenched. Water has nowhere to go unless we get a mini drought of a month

[Macedonian]

127mm for me for the two days. I'm over my long term av of approx 940mm p/a now with ten weeks of the year still to go.

[Petros]

We got 16.5mm in total for this event, both in light steady overnight falls, no wind to speak of.

Dodged another bullet down here, but even 16mm has left my lawns sodden with puddles. Top soil is saturated. Thoughts are with those in the states North, many areas will remain under for extended periods given the full Murray River.

[stevco123]

Massive disaster with the Maribyrnong River this morning in inner Melbourne too. A lot of properties flooded, somewhat unexpectedly it seems.

Disappointing that interstate media outlets are largely shunning the disaster. But when Sydney was flooding...

[Tassiedave]

The last day or two of the latest ACCESS-G 10 day model run is a bit concerning.

[hillybilly]

The numbers are evidently correct, the point you are missing is that they relate to weather, not global climate. As for being brilliant or wrong the answer is neither. The nature of a profoundly gifted mind is as indiscernible as the internal workings of black hole. Both are considered singularities

There are so many errors in the conclusion. You mix the diurnal cycle of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere at the equator with a planetary energy imbalance over decades.

The difference between a La Niña and El Niño is only a couple of degrees in a small region of the Pacific. This profoundly changes our weather. To suggest a global change of 1.5C has no efffect on weather is optimistic.

[Gordon]

I've just set up a Climate Change thread in The Met Centre viewtopic.php?t=2638 - mods may choose to relocate or rename, but meanwhile, it's a place to go for discussion that's off topic in Weather.

Can I suggest all climate change-related discussion is dealt with there? Think it's best to keep important threads like this one focused on the topic.

Speaking of which, we dodged a bullet here with 57.5mm spread over two days, plus a few more mm today.

Looks and feels very wet, with roads closed and some damage to homes and infrastructure, but nothing compared to what people in major flood areas are dealing with.

[Skywalker]

Massive disaster with the Maribyrnong River this morning in inner Melbourne too. A lot of properties flooded, somewhat unexpectedly it seems.

Just been catching up with the developments on 7 news. I'm just completely speechless at what's unfolding with the Maribyrnong.

On a separate note my mum & brother are largely unaffected up at Kilmore/Wandong which is a huge relief. Been pretty stressed about the situation up that way.

[mick]

Just noticed the Admin Msg re the sad passing of some of the members, Vale Rivergirl (Robyn), Hillybilly (David), Blackee (Anthony) & me, 93ben (Ben), I will miss the chats and know youve sent this rain to stir things up a bit, thanks folks, now please work on some Lightning.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Just noticed the Admin Msg re the sad passing of some of the members, Vale Rivergirl (Robyn), Hillybilly (David), Blackee (Anthony) & me, 93ben (Ben), I will miss the chats and know youve sent this rain to stir things up a bit, thanks folks, now please work on some Lightning.

only the Founder Robyn.
Other Boys have popped their hands up to help keep the site alive, the site was off line for a little while, so between a few of us pulling rabbits out of our hats we have managed to keep it alive and these guys will continue to work behind the scenes..

welcome back..