On the 2300Z sounding at Tulla, there were very small caps at 5000 / 10000ft. Once broken, storms will top out at around 33000ft. LI -4.4C, PW 29.6mm, TT 52. Heaps of Cape also (forgotten my calculus so can't remember how to calculate it ).
Going by the water vapor image, all of Melbourne to just west of Geelong is on the wet side of something of a dry line, which is a good thing if you want storms.
Rain arrived here 9.30pm last night, persisted on and off till 7am adding another 13mm to our sodden lawns, just on 50mm for this thread so far.
Has been calm, muggy bright and sunny here for 4 hours now, we are the only clear skys over the eastern 2/3's of Vic atm. Things are going to explode here mid arvo.
Lake Glenmaggie (92%) has started releasing yet again, river heights rising up in the Macalister catchment. I will be very surprised if we dont get near moderate flooding on the Macalister and Thompson Rivers on the Gippsland flats by mid week.
Another egg on face performance by the useless Bureau of Meteorology.
You need to be pretty certain about things before putting a Very high (near 100%) chance of showers developing during the late morning and afternoon into your "all eggs in one basket approach" Melbourne forecast.
Had about 3mm here on the island overnight. Warm & slightly humid here at present with not a drop in sight.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
Still not convinced something will happen. First sign was the rainband that developed too far east last night from where it was forecast, which suggested the whole system had moved east.
Second sign was the cloud moving in earlier and storms firing up to the east of Melbourne.
Final sign is the current development that is now a couple hundred kilometres fro. Melbourne.
Not much happening here. Had 6mm's overnight but so far mild and mostly cloudy.
Radar not showing anything around here either.
For some reasom The BOM hasnt updated Ballarat's forecast since 9pm last night.
Oh well if it stays mostly dry cricket fans will be Happy tonight
Stuff going up near Colac - fast moving in usual direction. Satloop as a large break in the cloud racing toward Melbourne (near Horsham). Might be all we need.
About 17mm here for the dates, most of which fell last night. It has been cloudy here all day and at times looked like it was about to pour, but nothing on the radar. A couple of small showers have popped up to our northwest, so maybe a bit more activity will appear soon. There’s quite a few cells around the Otways. Otherwise, the main activity is still in northern Vic.
Skywalker wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:31 pm
You need to be pretty certain about things before putting a Very high (near 100%) chance of showers developing during the late morning and afternoon into your "all eggs in one basket approach" Melbourne forecast.
At least you've got a forecast. As I first mentioned many posts ago, all the detailed BOM regional towns forecasts are still stuck on 9pm last night . 18 hours old and counting.
tonycynic wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 3:49 pm
Looks like some of the regional forecasts updated at 7.39 this morning. Might be more of a computer glitch than a BOM one.
No, you're talking about the brief forecasts. The detailed forecasts are still stuck; e.g.