North QLD Area Weather

[Thunder]

Current 2158- N 1.1km/h.Temp 27.8C.RH 75%. DP 23.0C. 1008.9 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 21/01/12.
Temp min/max. 25.4C–0601/ 34.3C–1153. DP min/max. 21.9C-1747/25.4C-1152.Wind max gust 26.3 Km/h at 1421 . 24 hour rain –0.8mm.

[Thunder]

Current 2149- ENE 1.8km/h.Temp 27.9C.RH 75%. DP 23.1C. 1008.6 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 22/01/12.
Temp min/max. 24.6C–0618/ 34.9C–1132. DP min/max. 21.5C-0542/25.6C-1120.Wind max gust 24.1 Km/h at 1533 . 24 hour rain –Trace.

[Thunder]

24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 23/01/12.
Temp min/max. 24.8C–0958/ 30.1C–1550. DP min/max. 20.7C-0415/25.8C-1542.Wind max gust 26.3 Km/h at 0934 . 24 hour rain –23.7mm.

[Thunder]

Current 2135- ESE 2.2km/h.Temp 27.6C.RH 79%. DP 23.7C. 1005.6 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 24/01/12.
Temp min/max. 23.6C–0416/ 31.8C–1301. DP min/max. 21.3C-0238/25.6C-0946.Wind max gust 24.1 Km/h at 0224 . 24 hour rain –12.5mm.

Morning TS at 2am, was a nice late night present before bed time!

[Thunder]

Current 2115- CALM.Temp 27.1C.RH 83%. DP 24.0C. 1003.7 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 25/01/12.
Temp min/max. 22.6C–0442/ 32.9C–1358. DP min/max. 20.9C-0442/25.0C-1256.Wind max gust 19.8 Km/h at 1710 . 24 hour rain –42.0mm.

[crikey]

Didn't know where to put this but there is a warning out for areas around the gulf of carpentaria as the tropical storm near Darwin shifts somewhat eastward and over the border in to Queenslands top end
Some rain for you thunder?

IDQ20032
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Widespread Damaging Winds and Heavy Rain
For people in the Gulf Country district.
Issued at 5:05 pm on Thursday 26 January 2012

Synoptic Situation: At 4pm AEST Thursday, a deep monsoon low was located over
land over the central Top End of the Northern Territory. The low is expected to
move east-southeast, remaining over land, and enter far northwestern Queensland
during Friday afternoon. The low is then expected to move south over the
interior of the state during the weekend.

Damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 90km/h, are expected to develop along the
Gulf Country coast during Friday afternoon, extending south during the afternoon
and evening.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is also expected to develop in the
Gulf Country on Friday with 24 hour totals in excess of 150mm possible.

Locations that may be affected include Normanton, Burketown and Mornington
Island.

Flood Warnings are current for Flinders River. Refer to
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

[Thunder]

Current 2217- NNW 1.2km/h.Temp 26.4C.RH 85%. DP 23.7C. 1006.3 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 26/01/12.
Temp min/max. 25.1C–0554/ 32.9C–1235. DP min/max. 22.6C-0554/25.1C-1835.Wind max gust 22.0 Km/h at 1831 . 24 hour rain –5.7mm.



Maybe crikey but not likely, EC and GFS promptly slide the system SE/SSE over the next 48 hours along an upper level trough(EC washes it out along the way) that lies from southern QLD border country all the way into the NT, I think only CMC is keen on a more easterly movement...pfft to that! It will bring heavy rain and possible storm activity with it, totals along the leading edge will be high but due to the rapid movement accumulated totals should remain below major issues, flash flooding maybe a problem for western QLD areas still with those heavy falls occuring in such a short period! Monsoon transitioned over the city today on it's march south, will lie around Whitsundays/Mackay tommorow and as far south as Rocky by Saturday before reorganizing much further north over the North Tropical Coast by Monday? depending on what model you're into... Cyclone potential over the Coral Sea will increase when the reorganization occurs... hopefully there will be no Upper level trough in play or it will all be SE going! <---because I already see one coming!

[Thunder]

24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 27/01/12.
Temp min/max. 25.2C–0437/ 33.7C–1449. DP min/max. 23.1C-0437/26.2C-0835.Wind max gust 22.0 Km/h at 1603 . 24 hour rain –1.5mm.

Had an alright chase to the Gregory development Road tonight. Didn’t manage to get any pictures due to low level cloud and trees, did get hammered by torrential rain! Well worth the 5 hours of driving!

[Thunder]

24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 28/01/12.
Temp min/max. 26.7C–0533/ 32.5C–1316. DP min/max. 23.3C-1146/26.5C-0839.Wind max gust 22.0 Km/h at 1548 . 24 hour rain –8.8mm.

[Thunder]

Current 2127- E 2.5km/h.Temp 27.6C.RH 84%. DP 24.7C. 1003.1 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 29/01/12.
Temp min/max. 26.1C–0356/ 35.7C–1237. DP min/max. 22.1C-1306/26.9C-0812.Wind max gust 22.7 Km/h at 1353 . 24 hour rain –3.3mm.

[Thunder]

Current 2107- E 8.3km/h.Temp 29.2C.RH 77%. DP 24.7C. 1003.3 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 30/01/12.
Temp min/max. 26.6C–0445/ 34.7C–1142. DP min/max. 24.0C-2014/28.2C-1125.Wind max gust 31.0 Km/h at 1920 . 24 hour rain –0.3mm.

[crikey]

Howdy THUNDER..

Just caught a glimpse of this tropical Low or is that tropical storm?
taken from WATL wind stream forecast for this Friday the 3rd FEB 2012 at 10pm

WATL has this moving away from the coast and co-joining with the tropical low already in the eastern ocean and transitioning to a mid latitide low over time

Are you expecting any rain or wind from this system.. I don't recall that you have had much rain this monsoon season , in Townsville yet ?
Did you get the mean rainfall for December 2011 and January 2012?

[Thunder]

Current 2107- SSW 1.1km/h.Temp 27.4C.RH 86%. DP 24.8C. 1003.3 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 31/01/12.
Temp min/max. 26.6C–0641/ 33.2C–1314. DP min/max. 24.0C-2032/27.3C-1247.Wind max gust 22.0 Km/h at 1715 . 24 hour rain –18.1mm.

My Jan total falls are below the avg. and decile 5(212.6mm) figures at 195.9mm, Townsville AERO however made it above decile 5 but below avg. at 247.2mm.
We can only hope crikey, will probably need to be a more southerly track than is likely for it to be of more use for me unfortunately! Still conditions locally and across the whole of NQ should remain unstable and give rise to showers rain periods and thunderstorms over the next few days, just depends where you are what you end up under but falls across the north should be reasonable!

[Thunder]

Current 2111- NNE 1.8km/h.Temp 26.46C.RH 83%. DP 23.5C. 999.9 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 01/02/12.
Temp min/max. 25.0C–0358/ 32.0C–1203. DP min/max. 22.6C-0249/26.9C-1142.Wind max gust 26.3 Km/h at 0240 . 24 hour rain –35.3mm.

[Thunder]

Current 2113- SSE 1.4km/h.Temp 28.0C.RH 82%. DP 24.7C. 997.3 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 02/02/12.
Temp min/max. 25.2C–0310/ 33.3C–1420. DP min/max. 23.1C-0212/28.0C-1226.Wind max gust 19.8 Km/h at 1913 . 24 hour rain –1.5mm.

[Thunder]

Current 2147- SSW 1.8km/h.Temp 27.1C.RH 85%. DP 24.4C. 996.7 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 03/02/12.
Temp min/max. 26.2C–0540/ 35.0C–1304. DP min/max. 23.9C-0535/27.9C-1304.Wind max gust 26.3 Km/h at 1334. 24 hour rain –17.1mm.

To note: A tropical LOW crossed the CYP(Cape York) lastnight/this morning and now lies in the Coral Sea off Cairns(I say near Willis Is. to the SW), currently creating large falls over the North Qld coatline, expected rainfall max tonight of 130mm+ for areas that recieve the most favourable outcome weatherwise(dependant on where convergence maximum lies). The system currently looking a little tired and weak with no real southerly development occuring(Looks like half a system), is expected however to intesnify over the coming 24-48 hours and may be named beyond that(will be TC Jasmine if she can strengthen). A few areas of dry air pushing toward it currently that may become a problem in the longer term should they impact the systems moist feed. Will track SE(ESE) away from the QLD coastline(I never like to say 100% on something like that so keep an eye on the BOM pages for any warnings or change in that track scenario!).

[Ken]

And as at 10pm tonight (Sat), the low was declared Cat 1 tropical cyclone Jasmine with a central pressure of 986hpa and 100 km SE of Willis Is.

There were also reports on Sat from residents along the NE tropical coast today of winds "comparable to cyclone winds", uprooted trees and outdoor furniture blown around in places like Tully, Babinda, Redlynch, Smithfield and Trinity Beach. This downslope flow was forecast well by the high resolution 16km version of the EC model. Current satellite wind analyses show a broad area of higher shear just to the north of the system with a bit of that drier downslope air being pulled into its northern then eastern flank. Forecast shear in the 850-300hpa layer weakens a bit temporarily on Sun so our forecast policy is suggesting a possible slight intensification around then although most forecast members of the EC ensemble are suggesting overall intensity (max wind speed and central pressure) to remain about the level it's at now.

As spectacular as the current monsoon burst has been, it also looks like the next 3 or so weeks may become spectacularly quiet across much of our tropics except the far northeast.

Latest CIMSS satellite shear tendency analysis:


A selection of forecast tracks from a few models (GFS, UK and NoGaps) with SST's, ship and buoy obs underneath. Note the tight consensus for this system. The latest EC cyclone strike probability map also agrees:


Even though this is the N QLD thread, I thought I'd put this on here anyway - the top image is a side-on cross section view of TC Heidi's clouds from last month from the cloud radar onboard the CloudSat satellite and the 2nd image is enhanced infrared satellite imagery of the cyclone with the line showing the satellite's pass over the system:

[Thunder]

Current 2235- SSW 8.3km/h.Temp 24.2C.RH 83%. DP 21.2C. 1002.4 hPa.
24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 04/02/12.
Temp min/max. 24.2C–2232/ 33.2C–1446. DP min/max. 21.7C-2055/25.3C-1024.Wind max gust 19.8 Km/h at 1827. 24 hour rain –66.0mm.

Oh Ken, another master of the weather. And yes the next few weeks are definately looking lean to say the least... Oh well that's how it goes...

Sweet picture that cross section of Heidi, I have one of Yasi floating around somewhere from the NASA page and you can drop by anytime and post the good stuff like that and any of the other great things you always come up with weather wise... *cough* EC climatic for Feb *cough*... LOL! Pretty please... Just so I know how boring the next few weeks will be!

EDIT: and as Ken just mentioned below me, Jasmine has been decleared and named!

[Ken]

And as at 10pm tonight (Sat), the low was declared Cat 1 tropical cyclone Jasmine with a central pressure of 986hpa and 100 km SE of Willis Is.

[Thunder]

24 hour to 2100(AEST)- 05/02/12.
Temp min/max. 23.7C–0041/ 35.8C–1400. DP min/max. 21.1C-2247/25.9C-1248.Wind max gust 22.7 Km/h at 1729. 24 hour rain –5.2mm.