September warm wave and troughs 26-28 September

[nafets]

GFS now has an 850 temp of 20c bordering over Mildura on wednesday evening!

[I_Love_Storms]

Also on Thursday at 5pm 850 temp at 20c in Mildura. 12c in Melbourne. Thursday morning there is a 850 at 14c in Melbourne? Thursday looks hot for north west. Surface showing 38c eastern SA, 32 for Mildura but not sure how accurate these are? Would be looking at about 26-28 for Melb on Thursday if this comes off IMO.

[Pane]

G'day

Well Thursday according to elders says 28 and 90% chance of 5-10, so that should make for an interesting arvo. Would I be right in saying we're in for a decent storm?

Hopefully another half inch is in store, would make a few smiles round here

Cheers

[aussiestormfreak]

Yes I agree... hopefully the northerly airflow will not only be warm, but also humid and unstable, would be great if a severe thunderstorm outbreak can develop as the trough sweeps across Victoria

Forecast calls for a possible storm early tomorrow morning with the cold front currently approaching us... would be great if any storms that do develop can hold off until about sunrise

[johnno]

2006 David... September 19th 30.1c in Melbourne so Im sure you would of seen it then perhaps even higher

[johnno]

Looking warm but in saying that there may be problems with Lake Hume, Dartmouth and Eildon with GFS progging around 100mm around the Dartmouth and Hume catchments and 30-50mm for Eildon catchment add that to a reasonably wet catchment and snowmelt and there may be quite a few problems come this time next weekend

[Alexia]

Hume Weir 98.6% today

[Gordon]

A 'mild' wave surely? BOM forecast says every day here for the week 15 C or less, except two days of 21 C. On the 7 day forecast charts I can only see 30C plus temps in the far north-west, and then barely and only for 2 days? Rest of the state doesn't appear to get beyond the mid twenties according to BOM.

[sparra]

Heatwave?? Weatherzone have 26 for us Wednesday Thursday which is pretty normal for this time of year then back to sub 20 temps after that.
They are usually pretty accurate this far out with temps......surely that is not classed as a heatwave is it??

[Geoff]

I see the BOM's forecast temps for Alice Springs for today and tomorrow are 29c and 27c, which would translate to nothing worthy of note down here by mid next week it would seem, just one warm day on Wednesday?

[Anthony Violi]

Apparently its never been warm in late September.

And 850 temps are irrelevant, its what transpires on the surface, unless of course you live at 6000 feet above Sea level.

It will get to 30 or maybe low 30s in the Nw corner, but nothing near previous temperatures for us here.

It will be a normal late September day.

And where are the consistently warm days to make this a heatwave?

The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F), the normal period being 1961–1990.[

For a start that wont be happening, will be two days at best.

Also the normal being 1961-1990 is a complete joke, and needs to be changed, as it was a known cold period.

So we will get warmth indeed, but no heatwave by anyones definition.

[93ben]

Has anyone looked at this yet? http://forecasts.bsch.au.com/apf.html?r ... hart_mode=" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Forecasting 100mm of rain for the week! Could see some flooding and extreme storms on Thursday & Friday!

[mad*moo73]

Geez Hillybilly what are you on? Heatwave???? You should know that only rain events & cold snaps can be described in exagerated terms here!!!!

[adon]

This type of weather will equal a crop killer for those in the NW who have been having a really poor year. We are right on the edge of this spot and this week will turn us from ok but dry into very dry and desperate for a rain(well, those with crops)

[nafets]

Yeah looks okay for rain and storms on thursday and friday. Although its still a fair way out and the models will chop and change as we go. I must say the forecast for storms is impressive on friday in southern NSW! LI of -7 and cape values around 2000!

[aussiestormfreak]

Yeah looks okay for rain and storms on thursday and friday. Although its still a fair way out and the models will chop and change as we go. I must say the forecast for storms is impressive on friday in southern NSW! LI of -7 and cape values around 2000!

Hope Thursday and Friday deliver the goods and bring some ace spring severe weather action to the State... anyone remember the CG-fest of September 28th last year? If we get a severe thunderstorm outbreak like September 28th 2011 that would be awesome, but preferably with clear air and good surface heating, last year's storms were mostly embedded in thick cloud which meant there wasn't a lot of contrast and structure visible... except for a guster thrown out ahead of the afternoon squall line which threw out CGs like there was no tomorrow!!

So bring on the storms, but preferably with clear air

[Jake Smethurst]

All the AWF forecasts have been fully updated earlier this evening: http://www.theaustralianweatherforum.com/victoria.html

[Jake Smethurst]

Certainly looks like a nice warm couple of days thats for sure. It is all dependant on cloud cover though and the first band looks set to move into western areas later Wednesday. This might cap temperatures a little on Thursday so even though Melbourne is forecast at 27, which is a chance, I think 26 degrees is more reasonable at this stage. As Nafets points out, models are going to chop and change a little still. Latest 06z run of GFS has significantly dropped rainfall totals back to 10-20mm for most of the state compared to the 100mm it was once forecasting for eastern regions. The 06z and 18z runs tend to do this a bit though, so will have to keep an eye on the main 00z and 12z runs over coming days. Also worth to watch the other models; EC, ACCESS etc. Winds likely to be fairly strong north to northwesterly as well averaging about 40-60 km/h with gusts to 80-90 km/h, particularly elevated areas. One thing that I do like is the thunderstorm risk on Thursday. Quite unstable with a bit of moisture around and warm temperatures ahead of the trough which looks at this stage to reach the southwest and far west later in the day, similar timing to the previous Thursday trough. So some isolated thunderstorms probably developing during the afternoon about the west and some northern areas. One to watch.

[crikey]

Agreeing re upcoming severe event ( see map below)
Here are the surface gradient wind streams
showing a line of convergence for a cooler moist boundary from the very large low
interacting with warm/hot dry air from interior ( depending on location) drawn southward across SA and VIC by the large Tasman high
drawing heat across SA and VIC on Wednesday/Thursday

The map from the link below shows the worst scenario by ACCESS interactive

on Thursday morning at 4 am in the west of the state for severe wind/ storms/tornado/ or severe microbursts?
I have marked that line in black
looks chronic..
Although Thursday dawn ,4 am, is not prime time . So l reckon the timing as this goes through could be the difference between a strong change at night versus a severe weather event in the afternoon l would have thought
That convergence line looks wicked..

http://imageshack.us/a/img266/5383/wed2 ... adient.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Karl Lijnders]

Was anticipating a bit more rain making it up today with some colder air but it appears to say south.

So in that case, we can now look forward to some lovely warm weather this week. Temps will get into the low 30s over the NW, nudging 30C over the north and high 20s over the south. Late showers and thunderstorms possible about the west and ranges during Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday will be more humid and have a lot more cloud, temps again are dependent upon cloud cover, but if there is no cloud then most of the state will touch 30C. Northerly winds will be gale force. A band of thunderstorms and then some rain to follow through with cooler winds into Friday.

Grand Final day doesn't look too wet at this stage as first thought, though some computer simulations do have heavier rainfall over the inland perisisting leaving Melbourne with showers on and off but any shift in that further south could see rainfall come back and be quite substantial.

In any case the first real shorts weather is coming and that makes me happy. Time to get the pasty pins out and lay in the sun!