adon wrote:Well the rain seemed to do a bit of a 3 pointer and also die out. Hardly raining in town but some better rain at the farm but still only enough to dampen the ground. Puzzling and a little frustrating too. Hope it comes in big next time!
Any thoughts from our forecasters on the prospects of some storm action this weekend
and also according to GFS the low coming up from the Deep South on Wednesday ?
Wilko wrote:Any thoughts from our forecasters on the prospects of some storm action this weekend
and also according to GFS the low coming up from the Deep South on Wednesday ?
Hi Wilko,
I'm not one of the forecasters so I'll let them give a more considered opinion, however I've had a look at the stormcast models and there is a slight risk of storms Saturday late afternoon and evening for central region, with LI's of -1 and CAPE around 200, so marginal but a chance.
Similar values next Wednesday but that will be with much colder air, so some coldies about with chance of hail too. That will be a new thread for next week as the regime we've been stuck in for the last 6 weeks or so finally gives way.
Horribly muggy here today with hazy weak sun and no wind, currently 23c.
Geoff's pretty much spot on! Slight instability across Victoria tomorrow, the eastern half at least, and that means possible isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. The risk I think is greater over the ranges where there is more available uplift, but I would watch the wind change boundary as well, could throw a few sparks. As for next Wednesday it's much colder air from the south so they would be cold-air type thunderstorms and not really too significant and mainly restricted to coastal parts and bayside suburbs. You can check our thunderstorm forecast here daily: http://theaustralianweatherforum.com/vi ... ecast.html.
The cold front and colder southwest air next week coupled with the warm bay may be very interesting!
Jake - Senior AWF Forecaster
Feel free to send me a private message if you have any questions.
Well we've had a bit of rain here, I'd say about 5mm. Haven't checked the gauge yet.
The rain looks to be moving nth on the radar ATM and its stopped here. Is that basically it or ill it push Seth again over night?
Bom said on abc at 5.30 they were expecting the rain to push into the nth east over night and during tomorrow, ATM it looks like that may not happen. I see gfs is still going for 10-25 in my area over the next 48 hours so hopefully there's still some to fall.
It's probably a bit hard to get excited by 5-10mm over the next week (what is progged for here) when we have only had about 25mm since mid December accompanied by mind blowing desert heat that has desiccated everything. The cool period ahead helps to keep any moisture received in the soil, overall though it will only be marginally less dry this time next week as it has been throughout this summer.
I can see how there might be a bit of interest out east of Melbourne and along the south coast, but for most of central VIC, both systems are a poor setup for rainfall. SW wind is almost as dry as a northerly here, especially in summer.
There is some solace to be had in the fact the long range models are indicating more potential for tropical moisture and rain at some stage after this current sequence passes.
BTW, one of the worst 'false autumns' I have ever seen here. Many trees have a significant percentage of leaves with various shades of yellow or bronze.
Rain???
Yes, yes, yes! Some of these white blobs on the radar are actually dropping some rain. Seems to be some signs of a trough forming over us at the moment, will need to watch this.
We have some rizzle (too heavy for drizzle too light for rain) but it is picking up into light rain as I type. I reckon it's been going for a while as the street is wet. Will be interesting to see how much in my gauge when I am up again.
Must have got a bit of drizzle at some stage overnight but nothing in the gauge, only a wet table. Geez it's bad when a bit of dizzle gets you excited, could actually cack my pants if we get a storm later lol.
Also have to add that dewpoints this morning are really high, 19C here currently and has been increasing since around 6am and alot of high teens and even 20 around some nth parts at the moment.
I'm quietly confident there be storms or at least convective showers in and around the Melbourne area today seems the right set up to me especially north and east of the City.
Have a northerly wind flow this morning which was the first ingredient.
We have sunshine
cloud/sky structure seems right to me
Prefect temps
Great moisture
Uplifting mechanism/with upper trough
southerly should come through later convergence
PS Latest GFS agrees up to 10mm+ north west of the city
finally decent rain up here in the nw...you people down south worry about your grass not quite green enough, we quietly endure 40 plus days for weeks on end with 0.6mm rain in two months.
Agreed Johnno, should start kicking off mid afternoon onwards I reckon. Without wishing to be tooo selfish, I hope the biggest storm of the day sits right over my garden, thanks.
Currently 24c, muggy, sticky, sunny and feels stormy.
qubert wrote:you people down south worry about your grass not quite green enough
Great you got your rain at last qubert! Brown grass we can put up with (it'll soon green up again), but having to keep buying in thousands of litres of water becomes a pain in the harris!
Agree with that comment Johno. As a resident of the NW I can add that while the extreme heat we have been enduring is ennervating, it's not a patch on the devastation of a bushfire destroying your home. Hope you southerners get a good drop soon to lessen the ongoing risk, we have sufficient now, a bit over 100mm in my gauge, so happy to share!!
qubert wrote:finally decent rain up here in the nw...you people down south worry about your grass not quite green enough, we quietly endure 40 plus days for weeks on end with 0.6mm rain in two months.
No, more like worrying about whether our houses are still standing and livestock and crops still exist.
Of course, the less green the grass in summer the more likely it is to turn to ash which is pretty much the scene around large tracts of Melbourne's northern hinterland atm.
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