Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?

[Skywalker]

Once again a big fat nothing happening here. These rubbish hit and miss events are so damn frustrating.

[Dane]

That cell is now only about 10kms North of me, but its weakening and seems to be sliding to me east.

[Gordon]

Teased by the edge of that little thunderstorm near Ballan. A minute or two of very big fat drops - can see how a direct hit would deliver big totals quickly.

[hillybilly]

Once again a big fat nothing happening here. These rubbish hit and miss events are so damn frustrating.

2mm in FC. Another bust. Pleased to know it can still rain, but another wasted opportunity. Too much mid level crud today crowding out the convection.

GFS wants to produce the odd showers/storm tomorrow in the east and central areas and a weak band of showers on the deeper southerly chance on Thursday AM so still might scratch together a bit more.

Hearing some crazy gradients from people - friend near Kilmore got 1mm yesterday while a near neighbour got 50mm. Repeated in lots of spots (except in the southcentral/southwest where it's zeros all round).

[Dane]

That cell has collapsed, getting a few spots of rain and that's all I will get.

[Didjman]

Another 11mm here this arvo.
Peter

[Blackie]

Consistant showers here on and off all day added another 5mm so near 30mm for the 24 hr.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Good to hear these totals Blackie.
I walked the hill before new year and around through the horse paddocks,
I haven't seen the ground so stark, normally I recall dried grass with grass heads up that hill, as I'm very alert for Snakes in the grass, there is nothing but dry land, maybe it's been eaten, but I can't see it would have all been eaten, also the so called lawn areas are so dry.

Great Photo Capture

Moisture out my window, a good watering yesterday in the cool, plus a minimal amount of rain is better than nothing..

[hillybilly]

Thick fog and misty drizzle in FC this morning. Quite damp under the trees - looks like a couple of mm's of drip, but elsewhere just looks like a thick dew.

Some showers moving into central areas in the southeasterly. Thinking today and tomorrow looks OK for places like Macedon, Otway's Coast and Gippsland, but the rest of us little chance.

All models showing a mix of heat and rain next week. EC got 30mm in FC (would be happy to get that).

[droughtbreaker]

Very frustrating last few days. Only got 3.5mm out of it whilst places not too far away got good falls. Still better than nothing I suppose and slows down the drying process after the Boxing day rain event.

Very dull morning here, thick low cloud, showers and drizzle showing on radar but mainly just to the west at this stage (keep missing everything) Hopefully it becomes a bit more general as the day progresses.

EC downgrading the heat whilst GFS tries to blast us. Huge difference between those two models with EC wanting to develop a major cold front/LWT mid net week which would flush out the heat big time. Also EC keeps us around 15-20C 850T for the entire sequence which is quite tame for this time of year in a general northerly sequence. This indicates to me maybe some more moisture on the way and probably has something to do with all the rain that has been falling over inland AUS recently as opposed to recent summers.

[Jake Smethurst]

Getting our first shower out of the entire sequence at the moment. Steady, heavy at times. The cell with the orange core on radar near Parkdale. Nice to know what rain is though ha.

[Dane]

Got a brief shower just before 3pm. 0.4mm's with it. Finally on the board rainfall wise in 2016.

[Tassiedave]

According to the BOM a good run of temperatures in Launceston over the coming days 27,30,31,27,30,28,29. Little if any rain will fall over this period. Hobart's temperatures will be milder in comparison. Launceston being 50 km inland from the north coast is removed from sea breeze effects. Warm air tends to sit in the Tamar Valley.

[Desertdust]

Plently of development in Rutherglen, towers going up all around 360, had a few drops but nothing to write home about. No thunder heard yet

[Geoff]

Okaaaaay.
EC (YR) going for 60mm for here next Thursday/Friday.
Seeing as we got a big fat zero this time around when about 25mm - 50mm was forecast I'm expecting about 1mm - 2mm next week.
(Edit).....and 12 hours later EC has already halved the total to 30mm

[Supercellimpact]

Final total of 22mm here for the event, with all that coming in one day. Yet the airport got considerabley less so it shows how isolated some of these storms/showers were.

[hillybilly]

2mm for FC. At least the weather was mostly cooler and humid, so less evaporation

The next event looks like a more classical summer rain event so should do better. Hoping we escape from being fried before it comes.

Getting very dry up our way now.

This past event shows how important steering is for storms. It's really hard to get storms south of the divide without upper northerlies (NW or NE) as the sea breeze kills development. Happens over and over