September warm wave and troughs 26-28 September

[Pane]

Gday

We don't too much heat here either

Cheers

[Karl Lijnders]

Not quite a long dry spell. I think we need to keep an eye on developments mid week because it could be followed up with a system that could dump 50-100mm in compensation for the high heat. Something to watch.

Thundery weather around the place too and I still think it will be milder than what EC is showing.

[Karl Lijnders]

I think I just jinxed that rainfall with GFS going for a fairly dry change at the moment, with another major storm outbreak for NSW and QLD.

[nafets]

Yeah I guess Karl for here ( and most of the state i guess!) but its still giving 50mm for NW Vic so theres still some hope of delivering!

[Karl Lijnders]

Yeah just put the forecasts out tonight Stefan so I have factored in a lot of variables. Going to be interesting viewing.

A warmer outlook with plenty of instability marked in the middle levels for Wednesday now so we can expect a good spark or two from Melbourne to Echuca and anywhere west of that point.

Thursday I suspect the storm activity to become widespread with rain developing later as moisture improves.

Some simulations still flirting with the system stalling, some push it through. Lots of divergence so will have to wait and see but the AWF forecasts are replicating a slower moving low pressure situation. The boys will continue to monitor that over the coming few days.

Grand Final does look like there will be some rain around.

[crikey]

That crazy wind change line across the OZ ,l was raving about last night has popped up a day later on ACCESS tonight .. Currently on saturday morning
But still looks wicked

Interested to see what this ACCESS model below suggests as the event gets closer
I might look at WATL tomorrow night . It is usually spot on 3-4 days out.


http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[adon]

Farmers in the drier spots around our area are reporting crops failing now and the warm weather will make that situation worse. Others in the area are still doing ok but will need a drink after this warm spell of they will face the same failure

[Karl Lijnders]

From what I gather it is not as bad as previous years with many farmers reporting a good yield this season. Some areas have lucked out but many are looking good still.

This heat will not be up near where the BoM have got temps, though they still will be well above normal.

Cloud will again save the day as it is developing across the inland already and should be blasted southeast into a trough and form isolated storms Wednesday morning.

[nafets]

Ohh was sort of hoping for a hot sunny day hahaha! Its okay hot(warmish) cloudy weather is still good.

[Karl Lijnders]

I think it will remain more westerly behind the front so that will reduce the amount of rainfall around on Grand Final day which is good news but there will be lingering precipitation across the north and east with a low pressure trough IMO.

Still anticipating around 20-30mm with the change.

Ahead of that the middle level cloud should develop and dry high based thunderstorms are likely Wed/Thur with areas of raised dust and strong winds.

Melbourne could sneak 28C Wed/Thur depending on cloud. Should be a nice change!!

[Pane]

G'day

How's it looking for my area. Elders reckons late shower tomorrow, possible storm Thursday, rain Friday and showers Saturday, thing is its only 1-5mm each day, please tell me where in for more than that?

Cheers

[Karl Lijnders]

You are going to see a lot of lightning from the storms if they develop in the mid levels. Lots of dry air aloft and dust too. Looking good on and north of the divide for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and more so on Thursday.

Not sold on the cold outbreak on the weekend.

CMC is a sister model to GFS and NOGAPS so it could be onto something but it is certainly on the outer.

EC looks rather promising for rainfall for Central and Eastern areas.

Pane - best potential in the country for storms and rain is in your area this week Thursday and Friday. 25-40mm

[Karl Lijnders]

Looking good this morning with a slight upgrade in the prognostics. I think we will end up now with decent rainfall across most of the north and east of the state initially then something for the south and the west over the weekend in onshore winds, so something for everyone.

Rainfall could be quite heavy over the east, and perhaps even Melbourne may taste some of this later Thursday into Friday, depending where the storms start firing.

Today the cloud will thicken and a little rain is possible but nothing too drastic, chance of some late thunderstorms over the NW but mainly dry and high based.

Tomorrow the storms will fire!!!

[I_Love_Storms]

Sounding good. GFS and EC not showing anything dramatic by the looks...haven't had a chance to have a good look though. Should be a nice line of storms with that collision of hot and cold air though

[stratospear]

Very nice fetch on cold air coming through Friday night into Saturday. Rainfall totals not looking too shabby either for the NE of the state.

[93ben]

Out here in Templestowe doing the garden as it's bin night. Haven't really checked GfS or any model yet but will when I'm finished. Anyway it's nice and hot here with cool breezes. If what hillbilly said about the temps is true could Melbourne see the low 30s tomorrow? That would be weird for this time of year as it's usually 20-25. 27 is already bizarre for Melbourne.

[johnno]

Taken from Laurier Williams snow expert from Weatherzone this morning....

"I think Victoria will be interesting to watch for Saturday morning. Currently both GFS and ACCESSG have some humungous figures lining up for around dawn - a tongue of 500hPa temps below -34 moving into the state from the SW, reaching -36 along the Otways, 850 temps below -4, freezing levels around 800m, tot-tots instability index over 60 in places and abundant moisture. It could make for a very interesting morning across the central ranges though the Bureau forecast is still only for snow down to 1000m. The TAS forecast is still snow to 400m despite somewhat more benign figures. Unfortunately, 500hPa temps from EC aren't available anywhere that I know"

[johnno]

Going by BOM on the radio which I heard this Morning snow will be dropped to 600m later Today or Tomorrow with snow showers expected in the Dandenongs for Grandfinal Day

[stratospear]

Grand final day has been a magnet for cold outbreaks in recent years: 2002, 2003 (bucketloads of hail!), 2009, 2011, now 2012...

[crikey]

Hmm Just looked at ACCESS and WATL wind streams tonight to see the dire predictions of severe weather re winds storms tornado etc for VIC /SAwere not evident on the charts. THe whole scenario looks less severe. Maybe thats good for our farmers .
The wind change line looks to be coming through Friday 4 am according to ACCESS
The WATL wind map doesn't look severe either. Maybe some better action in west NSW and look at the low nth New Zealand!

So l think a gentler change . THat is a big change from ACCESS interactive since the last time l looked
Although the best stronger feature ( trough gradient)looks to be toward the interior and moves eastward across NSW and probably QLD friday /saturday.
Shame the wind change line is coming through 4am friday for VIC . Not the best time frame for storm lovers l imagine but no doubt better for the warmer parts of the n/west VIC
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/wind/index.jsp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;