Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?

[mick]

hart to start it up but you only need to fly over Taswegia to see global warming in action.

Until the mid 90s, flying over tassie was like flying over England, so green, now its as brown as vic.

Change is throhgh Cape Otway, meaning fire sth of Lorne could hot up with the wind change very soon as I cant see any rain.

I expect the evacutaion notice is up, but Id get out of Lorne and spend the night at Angledangle or opolla bay instead.

[mick]

Change has just hit Aireys Inlet.

[Gordon]

Just returnd from some time in the much greener upper Murray area.

We've finished the year here on 614 mm - our third driest but comfortably ahead of 2006 & last year. The killer was a warm, dry (12 mm) October. If it wasn't for that, it would have been just another dry-ish year.

Back on topic, and liking the much more bullish updated BOM forecast for our area.

[hillybilly]

Doppler is really interesting. The bay sea breeze has petered out and now the Bass Strait sea breeze is surging in with the trough. Moving quite quickly. Temps here look to have peaked at 34C. Been cloudy most the arvo which has taken the edge off the heat.

Latest GFS is the wettest of the lot... If it comes off would be our best thundery event in a couple of years (the last two summers have been lean ). It brings the tropical low moisture over us with precipitable water values going over 40mm. This low is the same one that started near Darwin before Christmas

Wish you were wrong Mick. I've got a few friends in rural Tasmania who are shocked by recent summers.

[mick]

All windows and doors open change must be 5 min away going on doppler.

[mick]

Thar she blows! Not much yet, nut Id say down 5 deg.

[Geoff]

Just arrived here, not a major cool down at all, but anything will be a relief, it's been a disgusting hot day, good riddance to it I say.

[mick]

Second bout of cooling winds has hit, cooling down nicely,

Party hard, stay safe, thanks for all of your reports during 2015 see you all in 2016.

[hillybilly]

Happy New Year all

Not much change in the progs. Moderate to heavy falls across the divide across all the models in a long-lived easterly dip event. First showers should pop up today - the odd mid level showers and some coastal stratus/drizzle later. Then showers and storms become more extensive. Should see a bit of a wrap-around rain event with the best chances later Sunday and on Tuesday. The details are pretty murking as the trough is broad and the difference between upslide (convergence) and downslide (divergence) is very subtle.

Thinking 10-20mm here. Could get double that, or less.

Also a cooler humid week so lower evaporation and fire danger. Progs could easily upgrade as a decent low drifts down the east coast and just misses us, and an upper low gets flung over Victoria around Thursday.

Thinking Macedonian should get the boasting rights on this one.

Here's a photo just after sunrise this morning in FC. Shows the high and upper cloud increasing as the tropical moisture pushes south.

[Tassiedave]

Still warm here, 28.6 degrees in Launceston at midday (only 18 in Hobart). December was very warm with an average max mean temperature of 25.1 degrees well above the average of 22.4. Here at Grindelwald (15km north of Launceston) we received 629 mm for the year well down on my average of 823 mm.

EDIT: its now reached 31.6 degrees in Launceston!

[Jake Smethurst]

And a happy New Year to everyone also! Thank you Robyn and David, and all for keeping the forum going I hope everyone's christmas' were fantastic also!

I can smell the increasing moisture in the air ... it just has that feeling about it, and models certainly looking relatively nice for this upcoming week. Very very hard to define which areas are likely to see the most rainfall, going to be convective and likely hit and miss as usual, but hopefully there are no downgrades and everyone can see something. Here's to hopefully a wetter 2016

Warming up Tassie ... some cooler weather soon.

[hillybilly]

Geez the progs are all over the shop. GFS is going for heaps in central and eastern Vic, EC has backed right off for central areas. ACCESS has moderate to heavy fall (but patchy) across the whole state.

For tomorrow ACCESS-R/ACCESS-C has showers, but EC has zilch

Meanwhile a weak band of rain developing in western Vic and some decent storms out east. Central areas sit in the middle. Need this one to deliver - is a great lead up with the tropical moisture coming down. Just need the uplift

[Geoff]

Olinda
December 52mm.
2015 Grand Total = 1030mm.
That's two drier than average years in a row here.

I think how we fare with this system will (to some extent) shape our perception of the year ahead.
Even though it should be a wetter year than 2015 with the ENSO set up, and a still warm Indian Ocean, we are, as always, at the mercy of Mother Nature.

[StratoBendigo]

Big downgrades today in the forecast models for us. EC reckons only 4mm when just 24 hrs ago it said 30mm. BOM WATL has also backed off - now 12mm when earlier today they reckoned 25mm+.
Happens every time.

And with the MJO pulse zipping off into Phase 7, there goes our best chance this summer for some rain IMO.... unless some rogue cyclone enters the fray.

[hillybilly]

Progs still holding a good rain event, but Melbourne continues to be on the margins. Still waiting on EC rainfall update, but the ACCESS suite and GFS remains very keen. If anything, they look to have updated a touch. Trying to drizzle up here this morning - cloud base has touched the tops of the trees a couple of times, but slightly to dry in the low levels. ACCESS and GFS suggest a window from around 7am and 11am for drizzle

EDIT> EC back on board for this system. Has 10mm in FC and falls above 25mm for areas north of the city.

The cloud band is starting to kink as the cold air coming up from the southeast starts the upper dip forming (process)

1030mm... That's two drier than average years in a row here.

We scored 1098mm. That about 200mm below average. Not a good year, but well up on recent El Nino years.

We've now had only 2 years above average in 19 and 2 that were close to average (too close to call in 2001 and 2004 ). Those stats aren't good reading. Just did a quick calculation - the probability of getting just 2 years above average in 19 is 0.003% . If we're generous and say those two average years were just above average then you have a probability of 0.9%. Putting that into return periods, a run this bad would be expected every 2,000 to 600,000 years. Those numbers are bit meanginless as they assume the average remains constant and in the past 600,000 years we've had (about) 5 glacial cycles

[Dane]

No rain this year yet. Had 46.8mm's for December - Ave 68mm's.
For the year 599.6mm's - Ave 771mm's. So below average for the 2nd year in a row and the driest since 2008.
Hoping we can get above average this year.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

thinking of heading to Mansfield although the outlook says 80% 5-10mm
and it now looks like they moved it across a day to tuesday.
whats the chances of it being crappy .?

[WeatherViewer]

BOM seasonal outlook doesn't favour a high chance of above average temps for the rest of proper Summer for Melbourne and VIC. I'm thinking that doesn't look to relevant looking ahead, what do you guys think?

I'm still on Holiday north of Coffs Harbour, the weather has been rather mild and cooler than Melbourne over the last two weeks. Glad im heading back in the next day, decent rain is forecast for up here and not favourable camping conditions.

[Geoff]

whats the chances of it being crappy .?

Bit tricky to say with much confidence Shell, but better than evens it will be wet at times I reckon up there.

[Blackie]

Happy New Year! Impressive development going up around us here in Mansfield presently. Nice anvil forming on the Mt Buller cell. Looks like they are breaching the cap.