The Australian Weather Forum

Some impressive boom crash opera here this afternoon, but those storms were passing just to our north.

hillybilly wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 8:24 pm The cloud band over northern Victoria has stalled and is edging south. Will be some patchy rain for tomorrow. Expect solid falls for the northeast, possibly extending west.

Radar looking better to our west now, and suggesting some of the rain may get far enough south to hit us. Would be a great finale for January if that comes off.

Belting down in Bacchus Marsh! New forecast says possible shower…

Same. Rain seems to be setting in. Trying to reconcile our 'Possible shower' forecast issued a few minutes ago, with a radar that shows this rainband stretching back to the Eyre Penisula in SA. I must be missing something.

8 mm so far today. Chilly too.

We haven't gone over 36c here this January. That's very rare.

Adam38 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 4:26 pm Belting down in Bacchus Marsh! New forecast says possible shower…

Yes it can be hard to prepare for the day when this is not forecasted correctly. 5c cooler and very wet here in Lilydale. Tools all wet now

Omg…. Total BS….
Over 6mm already and look at the national….

Forecast now updated
Showers in increasing to rain.

Did they not even look at the radar when issuing the initial forecast???

Everyone at BOM is on holiday maybe it was the intern doing the forecast lol

Now up to 14mm and still raining. What a January!

Beautiful tropical in-feed from the WA tropical low on the satellite.

Pouring at Mt Macedon ever since 3pm
We had 6mm from a thunderstorm early this morning.
We have had a further 10mm since then.
Amazing January. Wet, green and no day over 30° for the whole summer to date.

Still raining here. Closing in on 20mm...

Raining steadily here since late afternoon, plus a thunderstorm around midday. Just over 10mm.

Great to see the rain so widespread, and probably more so than most models predicted.

14mm in the gauge here

BOM always seems to under forecast maximums this summer for my locality. Like many others we have to rely on MetEye for localised estimates.

Obviously the difference is very marginal and within range of approximately. I'm over in Truganina, 23 KM direct west of the CBD.

Days like today where it's forecast for 22.0C, more often than not we would get to around 25.0C without fail. My Weather station and many other local amateur gauges record very similar also, we are already at 24.0C now. Beautiful day nonetheless.

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 10:01 pm Still raining here. Closing in on 20mm...

The new Weeaproinah . What's your mtd?

Only 4mm here, but takes mtd to 83mm vs 66mm average. Cool too, high so far today is 18C. (Edit - that proved to be the high.)

6.5mm here yesterday with a brief storm at lunchtime.

Couple of showers in the morning today then a breezy afternoon. Cool and calm out there now.

Gordon wrote: ↑Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:23 pm

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Thu Jan 25, 2024 10:01 pm Still raining here. Closing in on 20mm...

The new Weeaproinah . What's your mtd?

Bendigo Airport MTD is 171mm. Second wettest January on record (since 1862).

Fun fact - 250mm in Bendigo in the 31 days from December 24th to January 25th. About as wet as it can get for a one month length of time, and nearly half our normal annual rainfall. Bonkers!

The closest parallels in Summer would be Feb 1911, Jan-Feb 1973, and Jan-Feb 2011. Summer 1973 is an interesting one - the SOI was still quite negative after a short El-Nino before it swung into a strong multi-year La-Nina...

Some amazing totals there

We’ve been stuck down here between the tropical systems to the north and fronts to the south. Been really windy last few days, but most showers being shredded by the ranges. Picked a couple of mm’s so far. Hasn’t been a bad summer here with our total so far almost exactly on average, but suffering a hangover from the crappy spring.

Progs looks really stuck for the weak ahead with the ex TC forming a block and keeping in westerly flow. Quite warm for northern Victoria, tending mild elsewhere.

Looks like a period of uneventful weather ahead, at least for the next 7 to 10 days.

A very warm to hot weekend coming up, but otherwise fairly mild to warm for the rest of the time. At this stage, it seems there's very little if any rain on the horizon so a mostly dry period ahead, apart from western Tas. This is not too surprising, as SAM has shifted negative and high pressure systems are now further north than they have been in the past month, thus pushing the potential for tropical systems further north as well. We've basically been shifting into this pattern for the past couple of weeks, coinciding with the onset of the monsoon. Hopefully it won't last too long, although it wouldn't surprise me if Feb ends up on the drier side.

So far though, it has been a great summer this year, at least for this part of the world. In fact I would say it has been pretty much perfect in terms of the mix of temps, sun, rain, and storms. We'll be finishing with a massive 260mm here for January, mostly boosted by the huge rain event around the 7th/8th and the direct hit from several intense storms. Everything's green and lush, and the soil is still holding a lot of moisture. Hopefully it can last if Feb turns out dry.