Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?

[Jake Smethurst]

And there she goes ... a few storms going off across the northeast.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for HEAVY RAINFALL, LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WIND

For people in parts of the
North Central and
North East Forecast Districts.
Issued at 2:37 pm Saturday, 2 January 2016.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding, large hailstones and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Bright, Falls Creek, Mt Hotham and Mt Buller.

The State Emergency Service advises that rainfall run-off into waterways in recent fire affected areas may contain debris such as soil, ash, trees and rocks. People in fire affected areas should also be alert to the potential for landslides and debris across roads.

[Blackie]

Here's a shot of the Mt Buller cell at 2.30pm today

[Gordon]

Spectacular, thanks! Hope we see a couple of those puppies here over the next few days (ideally without the large hailstones, though I'll take anything that falls from the sky really.)

[StratoBendigo]

I've got this feeling it's going to be just an Eastern Vic system. I hope not, but my optimism isn't there right now.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Here's a shot of the Mt Buller cell at 2.30pm today

We could see it from Eastern Suburbs, I was explaining to Eight yr old that might be Mansfield and sure enough..
HNY neighbours..

[Australis(Shell3155)]

This wind is holly from the South, South South East,
Not a comfortable wind at all..

[hillybilly]

This wind is holly from the South, South South East,

Yep, howling here also. One of the windiest days here in a long time.

Really humid - cloud base has only been a few hundred metres above us all day and was touching the tree tops this morning. DP in the mid teens.

First storms just gone up in north central Vic to the west of Bendigo. GFS suggests this areas should get some substantial development next hour or two.

Latest progs - GFS and ACCESS-R showing little change. ACCESS-G has more rain in central areas, particularly Tues/Wed. Main focus on the ranges and east, with showers most likely around Melbourne on Mon/Tues/Wed.

A few of those storms look nasty - Wangaratta had 17mm in 30 minutes with wind gust to 70km/hr. Thinking that cell near Eildon must have dropped 25mm+ as it's hardly moved.

[StratoBendigo]

Well that escalated quickly. Big mothership storm cell now on our doorstep....

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Had to come inside had goose bumps with that holly howling wind..

[Didjman]

Shell, its gusting to 35ks here.
Peter

[StratoBendigo]

She's a slow mover. Feels like we're in the sci-fi movie District9...

High cloud base too, so not sure we'll get any rain out of it.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Shell, its gusting to 35ks here.
Peter

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.j ... 04&list=ob" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This is showing over 50 in the graph.

Yesterday it picked up out of no where in the am,
Just as we dropped a Line on Western Port,
Made it for a swirly ride back with wind against tide.

[Didjman]

Nagambie area are being smashed - black core. Cell looks impressive from here.
Peter

[Skywalker]

Hey all, happy new year.

First day back in the western suburbs after a week down at Cowes. Perfect beach weather during that time, and for cycling too.
Will be back down there next Thursday evening so get to enjoy a week in western weather bliss beforehand.

These south easterlies are quite blustery outside which is making the task of watering the lawn quite annoying. Even the dogs kennel is getting watered which she is a little upset about.

Can't see us getting anything in terms of rainfall out this way during the next few days. Looks very much like a north eastern/eastern event.

[hillybilly]

Few reports from friends of heavy rain and decent (marble) size hail with those storms along the Hume. They're still kicking on, which is interesting.

Just low stratus here now. About 100m at most above the ground. Shame the ranges to our southeast are squeezing out the rain before It gets here.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Still Blowing. Really Blowing

[hillybilly]

Still blowing up here, but eased back a bit. Also gone more easterly. Gardens a huge mess - branches and leaves down all over the place

No real chance in the models - heavy falls around the ranges and far east. Elsewhere, will come down to luck.

Some heavy falls clocking up in Gippsland currently and bigs storms gone up n the south Wimmera.

[Didjman]

The sky looks unstable here.
Peter

[Macedonian]

Not a drop here, calm and misty and dry as a bone!
You could not even tell that we had 38mm a week ago.

[Geoff]

Strange, we've had a patch of Accas sitting over us for about an hour now and they haven't moved, even with a stiff easterly wind blowing here, so presumably there's no wind above at 2000metres or whatever height they are at? Might bode well if we get showers develop over us, as they won't move much.