Hot New Years Eve then some rain possible?

[StratoBendigo]

Such a strange day. Cloud is hanging around (stationary and overcast) with the occasional nearby uplift and rumble of thunder. But no real rain for us.

[hillybilly]

Unfortunately today's pretty much run as expected. South of the divide was always a long shot,with the light steering and southeasterlies.

For central areas flow goes a little more northerly Monday and Tuesday, and for a while tomorrow we go into upslide with the rain out east edging towards us. You can see the western edge of the rain moving westwards. That's our best chance.

Must be some bumper calls in North Central and the Wimmera under those slow moving storms. Those areas have done very badly this past year so good to see. It just keeps raining out east... They must be getting very wet out there.

[Supercellimpact]

That mass of rain is barely moving, but hoping it moves west a little to cover Bendigo instead of just isolated pockets getting rain.

[hillybilly]

For what it's worth, there's an area of convergence developed between the storm outflow and the southeasterly in Melbourne's northeast suburbs. Few cell look to be going up. Could be short-lived

Some models have shown this scenario - some not - so a case of watchin the radar

Edit> and just like that it's gone. Still, sign on instability just needing a nudge.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Is my Radar stuck. .?

[Jake Smethurst]

Also just confirming what DJ said ... can see some actual convection going up in what looks to be the northeast suburbs, much more surface based than high based. The southeasterly is absolutely roaring through here in Parkdale on the bay. Would estimate 40-50 km/h winds with maybe some higher gusts, struggling to walk outside at times.

Edit: Looks to have dissipated.

[tonycynic]

Is my Radar stuck. .?

Looks interesting when you put it on repeat though. Some good totals out there if you are under it, pity it is not as widespread as we hoped. All drying out here.

[Macedonian]

Great that it's raining somewhere!

[Hawker]

Frustrating day yesterday, storms all around. Two big ones, north east and south east, at one stage joined and moved east.
Then it developed to the north, moved closer and died. Then it developed out to the west, went to orange/yellow on the radar.
It stayed just to the west and died.
Oh well maybe today will bring something. I see that bom is saying more for the Mallee/wimmera,
but we can only hope.
Cheers Chris

[hillybilly]

Still on zilch in FC. Some rain not far to our southeast currently, so might get a bit today (or not). Models are al over the shop - they can't agree on where it will rain and when, but focus continues to be northcentrla and Gippsland.

Longer term looks like a return to heat for quite a period

Sadly someone has drowned in northern Vic with those storms - http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-04/m ... ur/7065518" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[HarleyB]

That creek is literally right around the corner from my house HB, just terrible. The driver of the vehicle was local too and there's flood guages at the creek, I am shocked they would have driven through there. We had 43mm here mostly within an hour and it floods all the time whenever we get a downpour.

[Geoff]

Not sure what to expect today. Just been sat having a coffee watching bits of fractus slowly moving down from the N/W under a general layer of StCu, while the radar shows bits and pieces of rain milling around with a slight drift to the west. Some signs of rain popping up out of nothing too, so it's going to be a case of radar watching and hoping I think.
Still on zero for this event and even our lawn has gone mostly brown now, so really hoping for something out of this.
Great to see such huge falls further north where they need it much more than I do.

[stevco123]

We have lift off... 0.2mm so far for the event.

[StratoBendigo]

Well the sun is shining and temp is already on the rise. Really humid too so it could really take off this afternoon - and hopefully we don't get stuck in between all the action again.

EC reckons 8mm. I take that as code for anything between 2mm and 20mm....

Friends at Sedgwick said they got 28mm in 30 minutes yesterday. And with the rock-hard ground it was all runoff. At least their dam is full.

[Skywalker]

Cool and overcast conditions for the morning ride here in the west. Couldn't quite work out the wind as it felt like I was riding into a slight breeze coming home (towards the north/north west), yet the obs show it coming from the east/south east.

Can't see us getting any action unless this cloud junk clears.

[Rivergirl]

That's just tragic HarleyB as he was a local and knew full well what happens there He obviously wasn't thinking at the time. A sad day for Seymour Talking of Seymour I had a friend Marg who lived there with her husband Rob. They came from managing a St Kilda hotel to Seymour about 10 years ago. About 3 years ago Rob sent me a Christmas card without Marg's name then that was the last I heard. Would your parents know Rob and Marg? They would be in their 50s. Thanks

[HarleyB]

Hi Robyn, no they're not familiar with Rob & Marg. Do you know their surname by any chance? They might recognise that. It was a local bakery owner that was overcome by the flood water, the family have lived in Seymour for a long time now, so it's a big shock to the town I think. There's been a huge flurry of activity through the morning here as expected with what's happened. Media vehicles, emergency services vehicles and, I hate to say it, rubberneckers.

After the past 24 hours I've had enough rain to last a couple of months, so someone else can have it now it's fair to say!
Looking like heating up early next week again. I saw a 40 degree forecast pop up on the OCF forecast for next Monday but it's disappeared in this morning's run.

[Jake Smethurst]

Absolutely horrific news Harley. The town where I grew up went through their fair share of local deaths, so I know what it's like. Unfortunately the rubberneckers will always be there :/ I guess it just reinforces the fact that nobody should drive through flooded roads or areas, can be fatal as we've seen. Thoughts with the family.

Another unstable day across most of the state, although I suspect most of the shower/storm development will be across the west and parts of the north central. Already a couple of storms up in the far northwest corner of the state. Bendigo and those areas could be in the hot spot once again, radar already suggesting some development. Can't rule the risk out for Melbourne, particularly outer suburbs, but with the current cloud cover and easterly winds it's a tough ask ... though thinking more showers in the capital than anything else. Will be happy to be surprised though . Will be another day of slow movement, though a tad more than yesterday, nonetheless, heavy rain and flash flooding could feature again along with the other severe phenomena.

[Rivergirl]

HarleyB, it's Marg Allen of Avenel. Forget Rob's last name. Thanks for asking your parents. Yes just saw on the news he was driving to work at 2am where he worked as a baker. The rubberneckers are dreadful. I can't get over people like that. Yes we could do with some rain Harley so send it down here

[Gordon]

Clouds shooting up at incredible speed here - gone from clear sky to towers everywhere in minutes. Just a few spots of rain so we'll wait and see what happens, but incredible convection and heavy rain now visible just a few km north, in line with BOM's latest STW:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of the Central, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central and Wimmera Forecast Districts.
Issued at 12:55 pm Monday, 4 January 2016.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Stawell, Ballarat, Bendigo, Maryborough, Castlemaine and Kyneton.