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Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 8:14 pm
by mick
I just seen Karl from here doing the weather on TV.
I remember when he was a storm obsessed kid on TWF
Amazing to see
Sad that it means I'm older.
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:58 pm
by Didjman
Just throwing this out there: who has seen Kelvin - Helmoltz clouds? (I have some of my pics for examples). Wallan must be 'Helmholtz city" - i have seen heaps here including 3 today at different levels.
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:31 pm
by crikey
2nd JULY 2019
Snow season on the slopes very poor currently. This weeks day temps up around 5-7 deg. at mount buller.
Only the cold nights and man made snow keeping things open.
Precip on sunday across VIC from a weak trough. Some forecasting snow. ACCg indicating that it may in fact be rain if the prce ip falls xuring the day.
They may get lucky if if falls at night.
Disappointing for first week July. Hoping for a neg AAO in the coming weeks.
https://www.mtbuller.com.au/Winter/snow ... now-report
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Sun Jul 07, 2019 8:42 am
by crikey
ACC g has a very nice rain signal in the west of VIC today moving into central regions this arvo'
Rain arriving crom the North and the Nw on radar
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR021.loop.shtml#skip
Nice boost for farming. It was nice and green when l was there a few weeks ago. So this is a bonus
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:52 pm
by crikey
Saturday the July 12th.2019... Next decent cold pool over VIC..Thickness down to 532 over Victoria . 6 days away...with plenty of precip' for the alps
Looks like a good event for the VIC alps
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/ ... fresh+View
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:15 am
by Didjman
Hi All,
Looking at the link below, I reckon we are in for another cold snap around end of month. What do others think?
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 8:27 am
by Didjman
The split in the polar vortex has all but "healed" looking at the following link:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... -83.95,488
But another stratospheric warming event is happening over Antarctica between Africa and OZ:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... 50anim.gif
An end of month polar blast is looking likely atm.
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:55 am
by Gordon
Powerful-looking cold front for Friday on EC for a few runs now, and on ACCESS, though GFS not interested.
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:07 pm
by Petros
Seems a fairly settled period over Christmas/Near Year proposed from all models for Vic.
Looks like a monsoon trough/potential weak cyclone might be possible in the GOC.
Typically if we dont have a heat wave, or a frontal system, for Vic, this typically manifests as a multiday period of easterly drizzle to upset campers.
Not so this year if GFS is correct:
To me this synoptic is quite unusual, typically at this time of the year, we have a weak elongated "sausage-like" high laying W to E over Bass Straight.
This high (if it comes to pass as mooted) would be anomalously strong, and may deliver some very fresh NE'ly wind over E Vic during next week?
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:00 pm
by Tassiedave
Yes - hard to see any rain at all over the next 10 days in most of Victoria and Tasmania.
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Fri Dec 24, 2021 5:32 am
by Australis(Shell3155)
No complaints about the lack of heat waves, perfect weather in our back yard,
Those long grasses with seeds are nearly all gone.
Merry Xmas to all.
Enjoy your family time together.
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Sun Dec 26, 2021 7:15 pm
by Petros
Petros wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:07 pm
Seems a fairly settled period over Christmas/Near Year proposed from all models for Vic.
Looks like a monsoon trough/potential weak cyclone might be possible in the GOC.
Typically if we dont have a heat wave, or a frontal system, for Vic, this typically manifests as a multiday period of easterly drizzle to upset campers.
Not so this year if GFS is correct:
To me this synoptic is quite unusual, typically at this time of the year, we have a weak elongated "sausage-like" high laying W to E over Bass Straight.
This high (if it comes to pass as mooted) would be anomalously strong, and may deliver some very fresh NE'ly wind over E Vic during next week?
The latest synoptic:
To me this is a significant weather anomaly for this time of the year - not in terms of the latitude of high, but in terms of its intensity, and, its circular "mid winter style over central Aus" shape.
For example, here in Nth Central Gippsland, the last time we have recorded a pressure of 1030hPa was back at August 8th. So to have a pressure in excess of that, potentially traverse over Tassie, in coming days, is definitely something I have not recorded over the past 30 years.
I wonder what impact it will have over the cyclonic systems while it's in play? Certainly it potentially can advect a mass of humid air from Qld down into E Vic later this coming week?
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Wed Dec 29, 2021 6:56 am
by Pengaz
Petros wrote: ↑Sun Dec 26, 2021 7:15 pm
Petros wrote: ↑Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:07 pm
Seems a fairly settled period over Christmas/Near Year proposed from all models for Vic.
Looks like a monsoon trough/potential weak cyclone might be possible in the GOC.
Typically if we dont have a heat wave, or a frontal system, for Vic, this typically manifests as a multiday period of easterly drizzle to upset campers.
Not so this year if GFS is correct:
To me this synoptic is quite unusual, typically at this time of the year, we have a weak elongated "sausage-like" high laying W to E over Bass Straight.
This high (if it comes to pass as mooted) would be anomalously strong, and may deliver some very fresh NE'ly wind over E Vic during next week?
The latest synoptic:
To me this is a significant weather anomaly for this time of the year - not in terms of the latitude of high, but in terms of its intensity, and, its circular "mid winter style over central Aus" shape.
For example, here in Nth Central Gippsland, the last time we have recorded a pressure of 1030hPa was back at August 8th. So to have a pressure in excess of that, potentially traverse over Tassie, in coming days, is definitely something I have not recorded over the past 30 years.
I wonder what impact it will have over the cyclonic systems while it's in play? Certainly it potentially can advect a mass of humid air from Qld down into E Vic later this coming week?
This is interesting. Certainly been a long and pleasant mild spell here, but we’re in need of rain it’s been quite a dry December and everything has browned off. The sunshine has been great for the veggie garden.
We had some light easterly showers here in Warragul on Monday, so I reckon you were spot on with the drizzle prediction (Mallacoota had 10mm).
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Mon Jun 20, 2022 11:26 am
by Petros
GFS alone, is mooting for an ECL to form along E coastal Aus mid next week. Been a while since we've had an ECL, something to keep an eye out on, and to compare accuracy of long term models:
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:50 pm
by Australis(Shell3155)
Not liking those dates,
For flying and window replacements.
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Wed Jun 22, 2022 9:57 am
by StratoBendigo
Australis(Shell3155) wrote: ↑Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:50 pm
Not liking those dates,
For flying and window replacements.
It looks relatively sedate on all of this morning's model runs. Perhaps some cold and blowy Southerlies on a few days, but nothing unusual. Looks like quite settled weather under a big anticyclone too after that.
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:58 am
by Petros
Wow - check out the low pressure intensity in the bight right now!:
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:10 am
by StratoBendigo
Quite a Low. Just needs to be nudged further East to allow the cold air to come through and dump snow on the Alps. Perhaps a bit of that this weekend.
Looks like a decent cold outbreak this time next week too.
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2022 6:25 pm
by Petros
This arvo's CMC run shows a hint of what may be in store for SE Aus for the coming months, moisture advected from both the Indian Ocean AND the Coral Sea to set up a more significant cut-off low mid next week?:
Re: Victoria: Day to Day Weather Talk
Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:09 am
by Petros
Nicely forecast by CMC from 6 days back:
