First N/W Cloudband, Statewide Rain and Cool Start to Easter

[Geoff]

Not sure if this counts as a true N/W cloudband, but it certainly has a N/W infeed from tropical lows over NT and WA. Anyhow, a couple of warm days in the lead up on Tuesday and Wednesday, low 30's look likely over much of the state, before the trough moves into western districts during Wednesday. Potential is there for some thundery weather late Wednesday, this moving over central and eastern Vic overnight into Thursday, again good chance of thunderstorms particularly over the ranges in the N/E. A fairly decent cold front to follow with cooler showery autumnal weather late week to start the Easter break.
Models are struggling a bit with rainfall totals at the moment, but it looks as though everyone should get something, and potentially 25-50mm for those catching the best of the storms.
I'll step aside and let you folks give it your best!

[johnno]

This feels like deja vu EC all over it until the last 24 hrs when it does its usual major downgrade, GFS never interested for Central areas last week just few vague storms for the Melbourne area rather than a rain event and always had the better falls for NE Vic, I will get excited if models still hold the afternoon/evening before it begins this event

[droughtbreaker]

EC is back on the horse with good falls for most of the state. Central districts look well positioned for this system now after models had the best falls out east in previous runs. Also good to see GFS starting to trend in the same direction.

A late burst of warmth coming up.Tuesday will be low 30s at or near sea level and a bit hotter in the far north and north west of the state and skies should be clear.
Wednesday is a more difficult one with the timing of the change along with the arrival of the cloud band and rain a factor. Personally I don't see a totally clear and sunny day ahead of the change. There should be some high and mid level cloud around and EC is indicating some virga and 'spitting' rain arriving in the afternoon for central districts which suggests to me that it will be solid cloud by about 2pm. IMO it will struggle to reach 34C in the city, I'm thinking more along the lines of 32C to 33C. Inland areas and the ranges will be significantly cooler than Melbourne and suburbs (especially western and northern suburbs) which cop the brunt of hot northerly/NW winds.

We should see the start of the rain in central districts in the evening and the heaviest falls will be overnight and in the morning. EC showing a secondary burst of showers Thursday afternoon/evening. There will be a cool period following with isolated showers, scattered near the coast and eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Easter will be cool to mild with cold nights inland and on the ranges. It should be fine for the most part but interpersed with periods of showers, especially where bay streams set up.

Classic Autumn conditions after Easter as a huge high approaches. We should see an extended period of cool to cold nights and mild to warm days with little wind and abundant sunshine. Fogs will become a feature as well. In March/April through to winter with a large slow moving high over us we can sometimes see extensive fog develop which, if the prevailing winds are southerly, may not clear for most of the day. I have seen some very low maximums in Melbourne and across the south from such weather patterns at this time of year.

Excellent conditions ahead for Autumn colour development. It's already showing the first real signs here with some colour showing on Pin oaks in particular.

[droughtbreaker]

This feels like deja vu EC all over it until the last 24 hrs when it does its usual major downgrade, GFS never interested for Central areas last week just few vague storms for the Melbourne area rather than a rain event and always had the better falls for NE Vic, I will get excited if models still hold the afternoon/evening before it begins this event

Models stuffed up the last system for pretty much all of Victoria. None of them showed the 50-100mm falls through NE VIC, none of them showed the 25mm falls around the central ranges either. On the other end of the spectrum, they were going for big falls over the south including Melbourne. None of this was even close.

IMO, the models are having a rough patch atm. They have been jumping all over the place the last few months.

[Gordon]

GFS loved this event a few days ago but seems to be unsure now. However EC looking fairly cheery this morning and only a couple of days out, ACCESS G is too. 'Feels' like a good system overall.

[stratospear]

Yep. I think that 10-20mm across most of the state is almost a given. Looks like a fairly cool to mild Easter weekend as well with light showers South of the divide and dry in the North.

[Rivergirl]

We could certainly do with more rain.

[Cass]

Half of the state has been declared a total fire ban for Wednesday,
what happened to the rain ??

[Rivergirl]

Total Fire Ban Advice for Victoria
Issued at 3:36 pm EDT on Tuesday 26 March 2013.

The Country Fire Authority has declared a day of Total Fire Ban for Wednesday 27 March for the South West, North Central, Mallee, Northern Country, Wimmera and Central Total Fire Ban Districts.

For further information regarding Fire Bans and other Fire Restrictions contact The Country Fire Authority on 1800 240 667 or visit http://cfa.vic.gov.au/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

CFA advises people living in areas at risk of fire to activate their bush fire plan.

http://www.bom.gov.au

Cass, hopefully the rain will come with the change

[Jake Smethurst]

As Robyn mentions, Cass, the rainfall will develop initially over western districts during the day with the trough before extending to central parts later and at night. Also the chance of some isolated thunderstorms embedded in the band.

The total fireban has been issued pretty much due to the strong winds anticipated pushing the rating into 'severe'. Conditions are still very dry over western districts in particular.

EDIT: Latest guidance suggesting up to 25-30mm for parts of Melbourne, eastern suburbs in particular.

[johnno]

Exactly like last week as I was saying a few days ago EC has backed right off with rainfall as we get to the eve of the event, GFS jumps on last minute for Central areas, my guess we will see little again

[I_Love_Storms]

Exactly like last week as I was saying a few days ago EC has backed right off with rainfall as we get to the eve of the event, GFS jumps on last minute for Central areas, my guess we will see little again

Very strange....don't know what to expect it looked very good not far frmo the event. Hit or miss, timing doesn't look grea tthough

[snowshow]

Bushfires on either side of us ATM, very smoky and still no wind which is good.

[Rivergirl]

Stay safe snowshoe. Always scary when bushfires are around. It's a blessing the wind isn't strong

[Geoff]

Stay calm snowshoe, there are no reported bushfires in your area, just DSE Planned Burns going on around the Powelltown area, you'll be fine!
As for the rain, well I think we all know there'll be the usual rain shadow affecting the Melbourne area as the rainband approaches, so mustn't expect anything much south of the ranges until the colder air behind the trough moves closer. Then I think we can expect things to kick off, perhaps even a light show and some rumbles overnight into Thursday morning for a lucky few, certainly masses of strikes on the lightning tracker over WA/SA at the moment!

[Rhino]

Yeah EC really off this system at the moment, actually downgraded totals a lot for my area this morning and downgraded further tonight. GFS gone off the boil anywhere west of the metro area but OCF has 6mm for me so not giving up on this system but not expecting much here now, can only hope for an increase in totals over the next 24 hrs.

Rhino.

[droughtbreaker]

EC is shifting the rainfall east and seems to be the odd one out atm. Other models firm on good falls.

I'm losing my patience with the models, they seem to be having a bad run lately, basically all over the place and each run throws up a different scenario from the last. Maybe it says more about the current weather pattern but IMO the models don't normally move around as much as they have in recent days/weeks.

I'm still expecting about 10mm here maybe as high as 15mm (which is what we need to get to the March average locally).

[adon]

Was really hoping for some decent rain out of this but looks like another fizzer for NW Vic. Really needing a rain up here now. Summer has gone and we need the break. Dust is driving us mad!

[adon]

Not really impressed with the tropical link this system has. There is a little cloud being sucked into this but I reckon it's going to do the same as most other systems and suddenly hit moisture as soon as it gets over us and then rain like hell over the east. Aaaaagggggh frustrating!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Could have been a night to pop on the evap but held back as have a bug in throat that popped up yesterday,
just a reminder of the uncomfortable sleeping ppl would have gone through on those hot days and nights.

Have been pumping my tank water into the dead lawn areas here and sitting on nearly empty, please give me 25mm.
No wind, and a thunderstorm PLZ>.