Victoria - Low pressure system - Nov 11 to 14th 2016

[JasmineStorm]

I think this needs its own discussion thread. Basically all models believe an inland low will form over WA and wobble its way south east to Victoria by Friday night into Saturday. Rainfall totals are debatable but the chances of severe storms on Saturday morning have increased. Still too early to call but there seems like a good chance of some action with this one. Lifted index showing plenty of unstable air on GFS this Saturday morning. This could be the kick off to the storm season in Vic and the commencement of a longer term weather pattern change.

[JasmineStorm]

It's upgraded on the latest EC on rainfall and now modelling 989 hPa around central Vic early Saturday morning. GFS and CMC similar.

BSCH stormcast probabilities map looks very interesting at 4am Saturday morning on the Nov 6 00z run.

[Tassiedave]

The event next weekend looks interesting for Tassie but possibly bad news for the Second Test in Hobart

[JasmineStorm]

The event next weekend looks interesting for Tassie but possibly bad news for the Second Test in Hobart

I think they will be playing more cards than cricket Saturday and Sunday. Looking fairly wet and windy for Tassie.

[JasmineStorm]

Becoming an intriguing set up now.....all along its looked more stormy than soaking wet and most models still think that is the case, except one!
EC is now positioning the low more west on Sunday than the others which would have an upgrade impact on rainfall totals if it comes off. Already in parts of the Macedon Ranges, EC is now projecting 40mm for the event with SE Melbourne to get a nice watering of the gardens on Sunday from the southerly side of it.

one thing is for sure, more downgrades and upgrades to come

[JasmineStorm]

Latest GFS run 18Z Nov 6th has a loud cumulonimbus alarm clock scheduled for early Saturday Nov 12th around Melbourne.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Tassie radar looks interesting today,
Mini cyclone

[JasmineStorm]

All the main models are now singing the same tune..... unless they are all wrong, I think its safe to say we have a deep complex low to deal with in this thread.
Positioning is crucial on the outcome and I don't think we will really know what we are dealing with for another 48 hours but here is what I see on the current models.

- Early storms and a muggy day is in order for Saturday
- Low seems like it will be in the low to mid 990 hPa's over Vic Sunday and will deepen to the mid 980's near Tassie as a mid latitude cyclonic gyre, that will produce a wrap around sustained southerly attack on Vic across Sunday.
- Rainfall : excluding North West Vic, it's ranging from 15mm to 100 mm. Low position is crucial for this, so this target will keep moving for the next 72 hours.
- Wind : Sunday will be a day to pony tail the hair.

[JasmineStorm]

Interesting little set up on the latest 18z GFS Nov 7. If she stalls on Sunday with that southerly, get the ark ready in the SE area of greater Melbourne.

[StratoBendigo]

We've had very little rain in the past few weeks. Grass is curing at a rapid rate. We might get 10 - 20mm on the weekend.

[JasmineStorm]

Certainly is drying out quickly around your territory SB. Even Macedon Ranges is drying quickly.... this weekend might get back a little bit of green if it lines up.

Latest runs 08.11 00z for GFS and CMC have upgraded on rainfall totals in certain areas of the state. The eastern and south eastern flank of Melbourne is starting to see very interesting totals on these 2 models by Monday night with CMC now showing 50 to 90mm for the event. BoM still not on board yet with these upgrades as of today's 16:20 forecast.

Certainly still looking quite stormy on Saturday morning.

[Didjman]

BSCH Stormcast doesnt seem that keen - for what its worth. Need something for chronic SDS!

[Sean]

Topsoil drying out pretty fast 'round here. Ready for a top up Mr De'hughie


BOM Melbourne forecast doesn't show anything exciting.

[hillybilly]

GFS and EC still showing a healthy system, though tending to focus more on the south. Models have 25 to 50mm here which would be very welcome. Keen to see this hold for a few more runs.

I like the storm prospects overnight Friday, though shame it's overnight and not 4pm on a Saturday arvo.

Things in the eastern burbs are drying out also. Nice and green here, but definite drying. In the flats the nature strips are starting to yellow on the shallow soils/sunny spots. Later next week looks quite hot so need this one.

[JasmineStorm]

hmm.... that last GFS run 18z Nov 8 would have got the attention of the severe weather forecasters at Vic BoM. North American models are upgrading again. Others are still similar...ish.

Storm chasers should start preparing for a tonne of anvil crawlers and cloud to grounds late Friday into Saturday.

[JasmineStorm]

Some downgrading on rainfall for GFS and CMC but still very good totals down in southern areas. Access G has the core on Sunday afternoon in a different spot to EC, GFS and CMC so BoM still not entirely onboard.

Still very unstable on Saturday morning.

[JasmineStorm]

Some nice warmth heading into the state tomorrow and Saturday. I reckon I’ll be able to cut hay in a couple weeks which should get rid of the tiger and copperhead snakes hanging around at the moment.

Models are all still looking fairly similar over the last 24 hours. Plenty of convection on Saturday, then it seems like we a dealing with a bass strait cut off low Sunday/Monday. These babies are as predictable as an American election. Maybe 20mm up here in the Macedon Ranges for the thread but some bigger totals in East and SE greater Melbourne. Access upgraded this morning on totals but the BoM official forecast yet to really show these totals.

[stevco123]

My weather station preditcs 22mm for Sunday alone.

There could well be something in this....

[stevco123]

Off topic, but now here's something interesting. GOt a bit bored so found the following site, which tells me Melbourne has a 25% chance of snow on Christmas day with a max temp of 11 hahahaha.

http://www.willigetawhitechristmas.com/

Ofcourse there is next to no chance and it is a bit of fun, but hey, anyone remember 2006?

[James]

stormcast now puts the severe stuff more north of the city...

will see what happens, but so tired of this cloudy cool and boring weather, even my vegetables are not growing as just no sunlight