VIC: First week of Feb 2019 - A break in the pattern, hot then showers/storms

[mick]

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[Dane]

Maxed out at 30.9c here today. Bit hard to tell when the cool change came through here
all that happened was that the southerly freshened a bit and the temperature dropped
about 2 degrees. Still 28c here now.

[Didjman]

36.8 atm from a high of 37.5. Going by Doppler, change is probably close to an hr away as it is crawling Nth

[Jake Smethurst]

One can clearly see the smoke plumes on the latest satellite imagery. Hopefully conditions ease and firefighters can get on top of the nasty ones.

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[snowfall]

38.7c today, now back to a more reasonable 25c. Fair bit of development around here, but has been heading away from us toward the east/southeast. Glad to see a cooler week ahead, and hopefully a bit of much-needed rain.

[Tassiedave]

Temps in Tas today: Friendly Beaches 35.5, Fingal 34.1, Campania 32.9, Wynyard 31.0, Launceston 30.7, Hobart 27.1

[mick]

Thompson dam fire is now producing pyro lightning, be more fires folks if it goes from cc to cg.

[mick]

Tropical rain has begun, smells like smoke, 30mm/hr rate I hope for 10mm

[Sean]

Wish temps were a little higher this week. Also, hope we aren't stifled by cloud. Storm development is generally quite poor when the conditions aren't perfect in this state

Plenty of moisture around, boom or bust type set up..

[mick]

All over 12mm. I take it.

[Didjman]

All over 12mm. I take it.

As ya would in these conditions lol

[hillybilly]

All over 12mm. I take it.

Where’s down the bay? I’m guessing Gippsland somewhere.

0.6mm here and about fifty rumbles. Haven’t had a lot of luck with storms this year with numerous storms, but getting the edge of most

Progs still looking good. Most are going for widespread 10-40mm with locally heavy falls. Even the models which are usually slow to get excited such as UK and German model are look very good.

That fire near Heyfield has taken a big run. Nasty fire. Hopefully it doesn’t burn back into the high country from there.

[mick]

Nice mammas overhead in setting sun and an impressive light show over lakes entrance.

[mick]

All over 12mm. I take it.

Where’s down the bay? I’m guessing Gippsland somewhere.

0.6mm here and about fifty rumbles. Haven’t had a lot of luck with storms this year with numerous storms, but getting the edge of most

Progs still looking good. Most are going for widespread 10-40mm with locally heavy falls. Even the models which are usually slow to get excited such as UK and German model are look very good.

That fire near Heyfield has taken a big run. Nasty fire. Hopefully it doesn’t burn back into the high country from there.

HOneysucles atm, I changed my location 3 times then gave up.

[hillybilly]

Foggy morning with a few spits of rain. 0.6mm in the gauge.

Looks like the odd shower today, thundery in the northeast. Becomes more extensive with each day, with Wednesday PM to Friday AM likely to bring widespread good falls. Not a drought buster, but best chance for widespread rain since mid-December. Models not really changing much. Some wiggle up and some wiggle down. General consensus looks to be 15-40mm for most areas east of about Geelong. Southwest fills in over the weekend with showery SW'ly flow with a deep low passing near Tasmania.

[StratoBendigo]

Firming up for 20-30mm here this week which will be very welcome of it happens.

And rather Autumnal temps after that for a while. It's almost an early Autumn Break!

[Jake Smethurst]

Nice to get a much more milder day thrown into the mix, had started to forget what these types of temps felt like

Also just quickly, the BoM's "Simpson South" rainfall site for January (which is on the family farm), had their driest January on record. Just 2.0mm. Records began 1968. That part of the state, like most other Victorian areas, is in desperate need for a drink! The driest January on record comes after 2018 received below the annual mean and median.

[Supercellimpact]

Bit humid up this way, 29c and 37% humidity. Some storms down for next few days, looking forward to it.

[Sean]

BOM are getting on board. Still wondering if cloud will be an issue though. It often ruins these setups

[StratoBendigo]

00Z GFS is spitting out some crazy totals. i.e. 134mm at Cohuna from now until Sat morning....

BOM aren't thinking anything of the sort.