VIC - Lingering trough then strong front: March 4-8

[JasmineStorm]

I’ve seen far worse dry conditions than this period. I registered an above average rainfall month only 2 months ago in December. This is a walk in the park compared to other periods I've experienced.

Australia wide, this is no walk in the park, that's for sure. Hopefully the rains come this autumn/spring otherwise the famine will be worse than last year.

BoM's last 5 months 'Australia wide' rainfall map. Pockets of dry and above. Oceans either side driving the dry pockets.

[StratoBendigo]

Certainly a confluence of factors creating our current hot and dry spell (since Christmas). Off the top of my head:
- Cool water off WA Coast
- Moderate El-Nino in 2018
- Extremely dry inland Australia
- Warm water in the Tasman
- Failed monsoon in much of Northern Australia
- Weak cold fronts for much of summer due to +ve AAO.

As for this afternoon - warm and dry NWly ahead of the front. A bit of raised dust atm and could inflame fires.

2019 doesn't look great with strengthening El-Nino and another +ve IOD on the cards. I fear another failed growing season.

[Dane]

Hasnt rained for 20 days straight here and YTD is only 29.6mm's.
Doesnt look like I will get much front coming through later tonight,may not get any.
Moving To Ballarat on Friday and they are even drier YTD at Ballarat Airport is 16.4mm's

[hillybilly]

I’ve seen far worse dry conditions than this period. I registered an above average rainfall month only 2 months ago in December. This is a walk in the park compared to other periods I've experienced.

Australia wide, this is no walk in the park, that's for sure. Hopefully the rains come this autumn/spring otherwise the famine will be worse than last year.

The drought in much of eastern Australia is now running neck and neck with 1982-83 and 1900-2 on the ~2 year time frame. I'm not sure if I've seen worse in the Dandenongs, as streams I've never seen run dry are on the verge of stopping. Similar at Walkerville where a couple of streams with healthy populations of native fish have stopped running. Comparing droughts is fraught, as they are all different. My sense is that the surface drought is bad, but not as bad as the flash droughts of 2008/09 and early 2018 in the Dandenongs. But, its been hotter for longer. Also, this one hasn't stopped, and the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean persist in being unfavorable for relief. They are just squeezing the moisture infeeds and discouraging cyclogensis in our areas

Still yet to record any rain. Progs not giving me confidence for tomorrow. We should see 5-10mm, but wouldn't be surprised if we got just a couple, and similarly with an ounce of luck we could get 10-15mm. Feels like it will come down to luck with stream showers which are hit and miss

Meanwhile, some decent storm totals in the northeast, but in the southeast those fires are looking very bad with many fast this arvo. Be worried about fire running with the gusty westerly flow and cold but drier air out east tomorrow. Hopefully they pick something up.

[weathergasm]

I’m struggling to see where these supposed showers forecast for tonight are supposed to be coming from. I miss RAIN. The sound of it, the scent of it, the sight of it.

La Niña, please come back. All is forgiven.

[hillybilly]

I’m struggling to see where these supposed showers forecast for tonight are supposed to be coming from. I miss RAIN. The sound of it, the scent of it, the sight of it.

La Niña, please come back. All is forgiven.

Down in Walkerville and showers have set in. Just light so far, but nice to know it can rain. Band now thickening over the bay, and with the high dewpoints hopefully these get chunky when they hit the eastern burbs.

EC and models seem to have settled on 5-15mm East Central, South Gippsland and Otways. Elsewhere not much. Fair bit will come down to luck. Am hoping the really warm Bay gives things a surprise boost

[jimmyay]

I was fantasising about us enjoying a wet period like the winter of 2016 earlier...this dry is getting to me too

[Sean]

It's raining!

I can smell the moisture in the air. Looks very fragmented and light on the radar, but it's putting out..

[Sean]

I’ve seen far worse dry conditions than this period. I registered an above average rainfall month only 2 months ago in December. This is a walk in the park compared to other periods I've experienced.

Australia wide, this is no walk in the park, that's for sure. Hopefully the rains come this autumn/spring otherwise the famine will be worse than last year.

BoM's last 5 months 'Australia wide' rainfall map. Pockets of dry and above. Oceans either side driving the dry pockets.

Gosh, look at the west coast. Was it last year or the year before they were having those big rain systems? What were the ocean temps like?

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Raining.

[stevco123]

Just a tad over 5mm here so far. I'm sure if i look hard enough i can see the garden smiling

[Onetahuti]

Happy to have 5.8mm showing on the Davis, after the fails of late it will help, hopefully some follow-up today.

Similar falls in the fire areas to our east.

[Skywalker]

Wow, a whole 1mm here.

[Macedonian]

You're lucky, i only received 0.4mm.
Grrr

[flyfisher]

I am as excited about the 9mm I got as I would if we got 100mm in a normal year. Please keep raining.

[hillybilly]

Patchy as expected Now come the coldies for a few hours which hopefully fill in the gaps a bit better. Event hasn’t been so good for the fire grounds with most spots only seeing 4-8mm which isn’t enough

Getting frequent coldies here in Walkerville ATM with small hail. Blowing a gale. Feels like autumn is meant to in South Gippsland. Will chec gauge but looks like about 5mm so far.

Very lucky, the Dandenongs picked up a sustained period of drizzly pre frontal rain. EC and GFS had this, but missed the topographical enhancement which was really strong. Flats in front of the range got 2-5mm, sides perhaps 10mm, and about the tops 10-20mm. At home sat on 15mm. So very welcome. Will kick grass into growing and stop the gum die back (unless we get a freaky hot dry spell).

Btw Progs holding a bit of follow up activity with decent troughs on Sunday and about Tuesday. Hopefully we start to get regular dribbles or better

[snowfall]

4.5mm here overnight and this morning. A nice cool 9.8c currently.

[Gordon]

An underwhelming but expected 1.5mm here; down to 7C earlier and up to 9C now, so that's it, I'm lighting the fire!

Re drought comparisons; I'm with JS in that locally, it's not even close to as bad a number of other dry events - and I'm only going on my own experience here back to 1996. We've been saved (so far) by a comparatively good 2018; and right up to the end of it. And we rarely receive useful rain in January/February anyway. East Central and many parts of Gippsland are having a shocker though, so not underestimating the impact out there.

Agree also with HB that droughts are hard to compare: short & sharp vs long term? Water in store? Stream flows? Soil moisture? Plant stress? Obviously heat (evaporation) plays a big part too, and isn't always easily factored in. Obviously this January hit hard not only because of lack of rain, but also way above average heat. On the other hand, our above average late autumn/ winter rain in 2018 was perfectly timed to coincide with cooler temps/ lower evaporation, thus setting us up for the rest of the year. In some respects, we're still feeling the benefit of that rain now.

Sure could do with some decent rain in the next month or two though!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Small hail before midday.
Husband in South Yarra has just given the heads up that they are getting hail now and to battery down..
Or get the bins in..

[StratoBendigo]

Nothing in the end here. Epic fail. At least it's a relatively cool 18c outside.

Incidentally, another duststorm is bearing down on Sydney:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/ ... g/10875410