VIC - Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14 2019

[Adam38]

I really hope something eventuates, the landscape is so parched out here. My new front garden is being decimated by hungry wild rabbits

[hillybilly]

EC update loosing interest. Starting to look like another dry ten days, and then a blast of late season heat. Not what we need

I’m hearing reports that many areas are running completely out of feed (even hay) as we face another failed autumn for most of Vic

[hillybilly]

All the models close to zero mm for the weekend now Disappointing as its gone from a good event to zero in the model world the last seven days.

Next week will challenge plenty of warm/heat records. There are a couple of doozie April warm events from the past including 1962, 1967 and 2018.

Zeroing in on Melbourne there have been seven 30+ days in the 2nd half of April, most recently 22/4/2010. Benchmarks are 34.4 on 17/4/1922, 32.0 on 18/4/1967 and 31.6 on 26/4/1962. There have been two 20+ nights, 20.8 apiece on 18/4/1980 and 23/4/2010. The maxima look a bit of a stretch, but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw seven bumped up in the next ten days.

[stevco123]

3 degrees here this morning, comfortably the coolest night of the year so far

[Macedonian]

I really hope something eventuates, the landscape is so parched out here. My new front garden is being decimated by hungry wild rabbits

I am hearing that from a lot of gardeners around macedon. Rabbits eating things that not even rabbits would normally touch.

[Macedonian]

Fairly sharp frost here at Bolobek in Macedon. Fifth one this year.
I've seen entire winters elapse with less frost than that here and its only the first half of autumn. It is a sign of the extreme dry.

[Skywalker]

I really hope something eventuates, the landscape is so parched out here. My new front garden is being decimated by hungry wild rabbits

I am hearing that from a lot of gardeners around macedon. Rabbits eating things that not even rabbits would normally touch.

There are Rabbit's everywhere along the Western Freeway/Deer Park Bypass, see them every morning & again during the late afternoon on my ride home. I've even seen some Kangaroo's hoping through the residential streets in Caroline Spring's near the creek during the past 2 weeks.
Unfortunately it's another sign of the on-going dry conditions. Some very hungry wildlife out there.

[Macedonian]

The creek in the gully on my property boundary on Mt Macedon has stopped running. I've not seen that happen in the 16 years i have been there.
It kept running all through the millenium drought but this dry period has stopped it.
It is scary to see that.

[Adam38]

I really hope something eventuates, the landscape is so parched out here. My new front garden is being decimated by hungry wild rabbits

I am hearing that from a lot of gardeners around macedon. Rabbits eating things that not even rabbits would normally touch.

They have been eating my ground cover grevilleas and various species of native grasses... apparently sprinkling blood & bone around the plants will deter the bunnys.

[Macedonian]

Maybe it would but high nitrogen and phosphorous fertiliser might do more damage to your native plants.

[Adam38]

Maybe it would but high nitrogen and phosphorous fertiliser might do more damage to your native plants.

Yes I thought the same but because B&B is not chemical based and a slow release fertiliser it’s fine apparently, will give it a go.

[hillybilly]

The creek in the gully on my property boundary on Mt Macedon has stopped running. I've not seen that happen in the 16 years i have been there.
It kept running all through the millenium drought but this dry period has stopped it.
It is scary to see that.

Our local Creek was going that way (lower than any time during the Millenium Drought) but the 60mm last weekend in March turned it around. It’s still low, but don’t anticipate it will dry out this time. We are getting lots of kangaroos moving into the area with lots being hit, as they migrate to find feed and water.

Driving around the city yesterday it’s green to about Box Hill then yellows as you go north and west. It looks desert like in the city and north of the city. Trees looks really stressed and grass is bleached white. You can see this in the curing maps.



Odd shower for the weekend and a little front due around Wednesday with more showers. Looking like we might get a proper system next weekend (but that could disappear).

[QldTwister]

This weeked was suppose to be a proper system but its sunny and 20c no rain anywere

Drought rolls on 20mm in the models days out turn to 0mm on the day time and time again

warm sunny week next week im excited sucks for all the folk on the land that really REALLY need the rain

Rains will return in Winter and Nov Dec lol

[JasmineStorm]

EC, GFS and Icon 00z run producing a big upper low that spawns a cyclonic surface cut off low around Vic, late Easter. Warm moisture advection water bomb on the back end. Large Autumn break if they hold and verify EC has liked this scenario a few times now.

[snowfall]

EC, GFS and Icon 00z run producing a big upper low that spawns a cyclonic surface cut off low around Vic, late Easter. Warm moisture advection water bomb on the back end. Large Autumn break if they hold and verify EC has liked this scenario a few times now.

Would be great if it happens. Latest EC run is looking very good for rainfall totals toward the end of the Easter weekend. We sure need something - fingers crossed.

[hillybilly]

Warm weather rolls on. 19C in FC today, so about 25C sea level equivalent. Horse paddock is growing again thanks to the rain the last two weeks and now all the sunshine and warmth, but for most the warmth just drags the flash drought out. Gonna see lots of near misses on heat records this week.

Might sneak a shower tonight and another around Thursday. Big spray on the details next weekend, so hopeful of something but could be 5 or 50mm.

[StratoBendigo]

The Cold front later this week is peaking way out West under WA and fading away to next to nothing here.

GFS and EC are still keen for some rain keen this time next week. AXS-G says nothing but High pressure ridging.

[Sean]

Bit of an Indian summer at the moment

[Adam38]

The latest BOM forecast looks dire rainfall wise... couple on mm’s here and there maybe

[hillybilly]

21C in FC today. That’s about 5C above average for us at this time of year. No real end to the warmth with hotter weather on Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday. Will start to see some late season records this week, including potentially in Melbourne

And... EC has killed the weekend low. Another system going from good to zilch. Starting to wonder when it will properly rain again for Vic with these conditions just grinding on month after month.