VIC - Settled with the odd weak front, 4 April - 14 2019

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Be interesting @ daylight, to look at plastic gauge
WZ noting

Ferny crk @ 21
Scoresby 10.6

Yes I've listened for a while to the sounds of drips,
Hoping not the odd one coming inside,
Only a few down a chimney..

[hillybilly]

Very welcome 15mm here overnight. MTD up to 22mm. Keeps things ticking over, but our average is over 100mm so still not looking too healthy

Good to see most get a bit, but yet another fizzier overall

EC brewing a significant upper system for the weekend, but it stalls so will deliver moderate to heavy falls locally but zilch for others. Tending on the current models to favour the western half of the state.

[flyfisher]

10mm here, happy with that and keeps it ticking over. Slow recovery signs in the bush but some ferns look very dead still. Everywhere needs a big drink. If this winter is dry, expect to see dams at very low levels. Hume and Eildon are already quite low.

[StratoBendigo]

0.5mm here last night. AWS got 3mm.

Pretty much useless. Looks like a blowtorch next week.

[Skywalker]

Yawn, yet another useless event here. 0.2mm according to the local Laverton site.

[stevco123]

The official Cranbourne gauge recorded 16.0mm overnight, and I received 11mm.

A lot wetter than what I thought it would be. More to come today by the look of it.

Still very green down here.

[snowfall]

2.8mm overnight here and currently 11c. Still in need of a proper rain event - it has been about 4 months now! But good to still get something in the gauge and into the water tanks. Looks like the east and south east suburbs are doing well, and more on the way judging by the radar.

[QldTwister]

9.5mm here last night nice fall

Sadly all these events very local and if not in SE Burbs or down stream of the bay you getting almost nothing every event

Western and North Vic have had nothing for Months the Mallee in Dire conditions right now as is much of SA and NSW.

I hope the upper low does come off and sit over W Vic and dump rain in SA, W and N Vic happy to get nothing here, but even the upper low looks moisture starved

Looking forward to the long warm sunny week next week should be the last one of the season

Rains should return in June lol

[flyfisher]

I think our season ahead hinges on the following:

1. Indian ocean NW of Australia needs to warm up to provide middle and upper moisture - it's high time it switched to warm.

2. Central Pacific needs to cool to allow low level pacific moisture to enter Australia to support rain coming in from the NW.

3. SAM. It needs to play ball. Jasmine is good at picking up SSW events that lead to good SAM outbreaks over SE Australia.

Combined the above three and we get decent rains again - broad scale.

[StratoBendigo]

I think our season ahead hinges on the following:

1. Indian ocean NW of Australia needs to warm up to provide middle and upper moisture - it's high time it switched to warm.

2. Central Pacific needs to cool to allow low level pacific moisture to enter Australia to support rain coming in from the NW.

3. SAM. It needs to play ball. Jasmine is good at picking up SSW events that lead to good SAM outbreaks over SE Australia.

Combined the above three and we get decent rains again - broad scale.

Sadly, most forecast models suggest:
1) +ve IOD into winter. This is bad.
2) Nino3-4 forecasts all tend to warm, but then some cooling after July.
3) Neutral at this stage. But could shift.

I'm not optimistic this year. It might even give 1982 a run for its money.

[hillybilly]

Picked up 3mm more today. Showers hit and miss, and some dumping while others that look similar seem to be mostly evaporating.

In the northern burbs of Melbourne ATM and geez it looks dry. More like mid Feb than mid April.

Waiting to see which way the upper low wiggles. It could be a bit event or another dud.

[hillybilly]

Showers starting to crank again over the east central. We’ve gone into a swly warm air advection stream which is providing a a bit of low level ascent. Progs picked the shift from cold air to warm air advection but not the continuing showers. We’ve had nearly 6mm today, so event up to 21mm (and about 26mm at our local AWS).

Almost time for a new thread for the weekends weak front and upper low. EC is producing moderate falls out west, and showers across most the rest of the state. The Synoptics aren’t varying much, but the ensemble precip has a huge spread so could be anywhere between 2 and 20mm for most of us depending on how it plays out. With the slow movement expect there could be falls above 25mm but very patchy.

[Adam38]

Pretty much nothing again last night/today, just windy as usual.

[Tassiedave]

Warm temperatures forecast for next week. Getting to the mid twenties in Tassie Tuesday/Wednesday

[StratoBendigo]

Almost our first frost for the year this morning. Got down to 2.4c.

Not a cloud in the sky (as is normal).

[hillybilly]

Finished on 22mm at our place. Nearby AWS did better with 27mm. Not a bad fall MTD about 30mm (and 40mm). Some decent drizzly stuff overnight in other parts of east central with locally 5-10mm (some spots have seen the best falls in two months ).

EC looking better for the weekend, but being slow moving it will be focused in the area where the upper low stalls (which now looks more like west central). The model has local falls over 20mm which would be very welcome. New thread time.

In Canberra today and have a frost. It's nice a green here thanks to the storms they scored early in autumn.

[Gordon]

Good to see east central getting decent falls lately.

7.5mm here so not a complete failure. We're yet to get a double digit 24hr total this year though!

[hillybilly]

Have expanded the date range to capture the coming mini system. Looks like 2-10mm across southern areas perhaps spreading to just north of the divide. Will be hit and miss and slow moving, so could be locally better falls and some other areas will miss out completely. Consists of a weak front which injects a pool of cold air so weak and patchy upslide which starts out in a westerly and ends with an easterly.

Hoping this gives a bit, as next week looks like a return to summery weather with potential for late season heat records

[StratoBendigo]

No end to the dry here.

Easter Weekend is looking awful. Might even be Total Fire Bans I reckon.

We're just swinging from blowtorch northerlies to cool and frosty and back to blowtorch northerlies at present. A bit like Autumn 2002.

[JasmineStorm]

No much going on here, just waiting for the Autumn break now. Should get a handy drop from that upper low on Sunday. EC starting to show an Aussie bight cyclonic gyre with associated sting jet around Easter. Atmospheric river fed from the Indian ocean with interacting subtropical and polar jets over S.A. Has the key ingredients for bombogenesis with a leading north west cloud band. Haven’t seen one of those modelled for a while Looks quite juicy aloft on the EC 300 hPa water vapour simulation. Too early to lock in of course but its always entertaining to see them appear in the modelling as the troposphere and stratosphere commence their seasonal coupling process.