VIC - Major upper and surface lows 1 - 5 May 2019

weathergasm · Thu May 02, 2019 5:13 pm

Looking the obs it appears the surface convergence is in Melbourne’s outer east, not to the west of Geelong. What am I missing?

StratoBendigo · Thu May 02, 2019 5:21 pm

Not really anything since 9am here. All over for us I reckon.

JasmineStorm · Thu May 02, 2019 5:38 pm

weathergasm wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2019 5:13 pm Looking the obs it appears the surface convergence is in Melbourne’s outer east, not to the west of Geelong. What am I missing?

There is a 2nd convergence at 1.5km above the surface moving west across the bay at the moment. It's on the other side of the main show. Cell line starting to appear east of Caulfield now near the Dandenongs.

WeatherViewer · Thu May 02, 2019 5:39 pm

weathergasm wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2019 5:13 pm Looking the obs it appears the surface convergence is in Melbourne’s outer east, not to the west of Geelong. What am I missing?

Me too, confused on that one. Jasmine what are we missing?

JasmineStorm · Thu May 02, 2019 5:43 pm

WeatherViewer wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2019 5:39 pm
weathergasm wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2019 5:13 pm Looking the obs it appears the surface convergence is in Melbourne’s outer east, not to the west of Geelong. What am I missing?
Me too, confused on that one. Jasmine what are we missing?

more may develop

Thu May 02, 2019 6:39 pm

Quick 6mm from the convergence. Our AWS about a km away scored nearly 10mm so tight gradients. Locally near 20mm now

Looks like another 10-20mm next two days for us so a handy fall. City seriously out of luck with just ~4mm

Rivergirl · Thu May 02, 2019 9:25 pm

Absolutely belting down near Bright. Would love to know the rain rate. Sheet lightning all the time

Macedonian · Thu May 02, 2019 11:11 pm

That sounds like the place to be Rivergirl.
How are the autumn colours up in Bright?

Rivergirl · Thu May 02, 2019 11:35 pm

Lol Macedonian

. Colours at Bright are just beautiful

JasmineStorm · Fri May 03, 2019 6:42 am

I see a couple of gauges near Bright scored over 100mm

Macedonian · Fri May 03, 2019 6:46 am

Rivergirl wrote: ↑Thu May 02, 2019 11:35 pm Lol Macedonian . Colours at Bright are just beautiful

I bet! What a combo, colours and heaps of rain. I love it up there.

Tassiedave · Fri May 03, 2019 6:50 am

Rain overnight: Launceston Airport 26mm, Launceston 23mm, Mt Victoria 23mm, Low Head 20mm, Sheffield 11mm, Hobart 1.6mm

Rivergirl · Fri May 03, 2019 7:32 am

Thanks JS. It’s been unbelievable here all night with the rain

JasmineStorm · Fri May 03, 2019 9:08 am

The BoM are looking into the possible tornado in the SW on Wednesday evening. Plenty of divided opinion on the subject as there always is when its darks. https://www.facebook.com/bureauofmeteor ... 7028750517

Also Occluded posted a news article earlier on this subject.

During Wednesday evening there was clear rotation on the doppler Melbourne 128 km radar in several locations indicating the atmosphere was ripe for such a tornadic event. Here was a post from earlier in the thread when Didjman spotted a clear rogue Mesocyclone on Doppler.

JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 7:45 pm
Didjman wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 7:40 pm whats that on Doppler between Lara and SheOaks?? Aberation??
Mesocyclone signature in my opinion. Radar showing a developing dangerous cell near Avalon on that Doppler signature. BoM have a STW on that cell now.

jimmyay · Fri May 03, 2019 5:11 pm

I flew up to Brisbane last night through some horrendous weather. Here’s our diversion track - we departed Mel at 19:00 - earlier flight was cancelled due to bad weather

JasmineStorm · Sat May 04, 2019 6:46 am

JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Fri May 03, 2019 9:08 am The BoM are looking into the possible tornado in the SW on Wednesday evening. Plenty of divided opinion on the subject as there always is when its darks. https://www.facebook.com/bureauofmeteor ... 7028750517

Also Occluded posted a news article earlier on this subject.

During Wednesday evening there was clear rotation on the doppler Melbourne 128 km radar in several locations indicating the atmosphere was ripe for such a tornadic event. Here was a post from earlier in the thread when Didjman spotted a clear rogue Mesocyclone on Doppler.

JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 7:45 pm
Didjman wrote: ↑Wed May 01, 2019 7:40 pm whats that on Doppler between Lara and SheOaks?? Aberation??
Mesocyclone signature in my opinion. Radar showing a developing dangerous cell near Avalon on that Doppler signature. BoM have a STW on that cell now.

BOM's going with a non super cell tornado

Sat May 04, 2019 7:16 am

Foggy raining morning in the Dandenongs with 2mm so far. Looks quite wet today in southern parts (well apart from the usual dry spots) with SWly winds and warm air advection kicking in.

Progs holding a couple of cracking fronts for next week. New thread time

stevco123 · Sat May 04, 2019 7:36 am

9mm so far this morning, more than Thursday morning's, as expected

Skywalker · Sat May 04, 2019 10:33 am

This whole event has been yet another fizzer for my area here in the desert. Just 5mm early Thursday morning and not a drop since.

Extremely frustrating.

Sean · Sat May 04, 2019 1:49 pm

Skywalker wrote: ↑Sat May 04, 2019 10:33 am This whole event has been yet another fizzer for my area here in the desert. Just 5mm early Thursday morning and not a drop since.
Extremely frustrating.

Melbourne did poorly that's for sure. Geelong did ok but its YTD is still bad.

I got 15mm by the end of it. Not huge, but 10mm + is very satisfying.

Hopefully your turn comes by the end of the week.