Surprised you've never cracked the double ton Gordon. We usually get that about once a year. My best in the past ten years is just shy of 400mm. Must admit my love of wet can be tested in those sort of months
Bit of a distraction, but there's a bit of confusion about what the monthly and seasonal forecast show. They tell you how the climate drivers are influencing the outcome. ATM we have a near El Nino and a positive IOD (and global warming). The natural drivers weight the odds towards poor rainfall in southern and eastern Australia. This signal in autumn is not strong (the above/below median odds were about 40%:60% for May in central Vic). This doesn't mean it will be dry (Victoria got very lucky with a single heavy fall event early in the month which set the stage for the above average falls).snowfall wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 5:30 pm Yes, the projected probabilities from Access-S were quite a long way off. Though the problem with representing the forecast as probabilities is that the BOM is technically not wrong, as they’ve still indicated ‘some’ chance of at least 50mm. The big issue is, as you’ve pointed out JS, that it would seem not all variables are factored in, which creates additional error and therefore to be taken with quite a large grain of salt.
That looks like a 40 day forecast? Maybe I’m reading it wrong.
Yes the closest we came until now was 2011: 198mm in Jan; 189.5mm in Feb.hillybilly wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 5:56 pm Surprised you've never cracked the double ton Gordon. We usually get that about once a year. My best in the past ten years is just shy of 400mm. Must admit my love of wet can be tested in those sort of months
always great to see a private rainfall record fall.Gordon wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 7:52 pmYes the closest we came until now was 2011: 198mm in Jan; 189.5mm in Feb.hillybilly wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 5:56 pm Surprised you've never cracked the double ton Gordon. We usually get that about once a year. My best in the past ten years is just shy of 400mm. Must admit my love of wet can be tested in those sort of months
Came home just now to another 3.5mm so we have a new record of 199mm … and it's still drizzling, so I'm hopeful we will in fact hit 200mm by 9am.
Yep, 46 day ensemble. It has included the important cyclic climatic factors for Vic of the MJO phase and the negative SAM. It's earlier runs before these indicators became apparent were bleak for rainfall in May.hillybilly wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 7:41 pmThat looks like a 40 day forecast? Maybe I’m reading it wrong.
That would make it a below average forecast also. I’d expect most or all climate models to pick up on the IOD and ENSO signals and lean towards dry overall.JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 8:40 pmYep, 46 day ensemble. It has included the important cyclic climatic factors for Vic of the MJO phase and the negative SAM. It's earlier runs before these indicators became apparent were bleak for rainfall in May.hillybilly wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 7:41 pmThat looks like a 40 day forecast? Maybe I’m reading it wrong.
The original Access S post is about the threshold of 50mm. Nothing to do with mean or average.hillybilly wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 9:12 pmThat would make it a below average forecast also. I’d expect most or all climate models to pick up on the IOD and ENSO signals and lean towards dry overall.JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 8:40 pmYep, 46 day ensemble. It has included the important cyclic climatic factors for Vic of the MJO phase and the negative SAM. It's earlier runs before these indicators became apparent were bleak for rainfall in May.hillybilly wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 7:41 pm
That looks like a 40 day forecast? Maybe I’m reading it wrong.
It’s the same. ACCESS-S forecasts derive that 50mm probability using the likelihood of above and below median. Multiple that EC map by 2/3rd and most areas will be less than 50mm, and below average. They show the same thing.JasmineStorm wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2019 9:40 pm
The original Access S post is about the threshold of 50mm. Nothing to do with mean or average.