This kind of weather isn't all that unusual for June. It happened in 1995 when we had a week of subtropical Northerlies and mild temps. 100mm in one week back then which I doubt we'll repeat this week. Perhaps 30-40mm instead.
I wasn't sure what I would get in round 1. Ended up squeezing in 4mm.
EC has been very consistent for 30 to 50mm on Wednesday around here. Access R going for 40 to 60mm on the 18Z run here with quite decent falls in the Wimmera and Mallee, 20 to 30mm for metro Melbourne. Will be interesting to see Access C tomorrow.
Just under 2mm here. A bit less than elsewhere, due to some rain shadowing. Strong NW winds don't favour us too well, so not quite sure what to expect on Wednesday. Interesting system coming up though, and good to see it's likely to have some decent moisture. Very mild here - the minimum temp overnight was just 11.3c. That's warmer than most of our maximum temperatures last week.
7mm today in both FC and Walkerville. Briefly heavy. Then, a beaut mild sunny arvo.
Progs wound back a fair bit for Wednesday. Still solid falls at 10-20mm south, 20-40mm north but down from earlier falls which were about double that. Hopefully the event surprises. The infeed is excellent but the Synoptics aren’t great now.
Still on track for around 25mm tomorrow which will be brilliant for the winter crops. Then it looks like cool temps in a Westerly/Southwesterly regime typical of this time of year after tomorrow.
StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:46 am
Still on track for around 25mm tomorrow which will be brilliant for the winter crops. Then it looks like cool temps in a Westerly/Southwesterly regime typical of this time of year after tomorrow.
Looks like it should be cool, but the uppers stay rather mild. Could change, but GFS/EC has these sitting in 2-4C range until next week. Can't really see much snow in the alps or below average temps with those uppers.
Perhaps a good cold blast this time next week.
BTW the Melbourne Ap precipitable water record for June is 29.1mm from 6 June 2001. This morning's GFS run had the value around 35mm at 10am to 12pm. Be remarkable if that happens Can see why this system has the potential to produce flash floods
StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:46 am
Still on track for around 25mm tomorrow which will be brilliant for the winter crops. Then it looks like cool temps in a Westerly/Southwesterly regime typical of this time of year after tomorrow.
Looks like it should be cool, but the uppers stay rather mild. Could change, but GFS/EC has these sitting in 2-4C range until next week. Can't really see much snow in the alps or below average temps with those uppers.
Perhaps a good cold blast this time next week.
BTW the Melbourne Ap precipitable water record for June is 29.1mm from 6 June 2001. This morning's GFS run had the value around 35mm at 10am to 12pm. Be remarkable if that happens Can see why this system has the potential to produce flash floods
Yes, certainly an impressive column of saturated air. Right up to 250 HPa on the charts for tomorrow - that's a serious pineapple express.
Yes, lots of moisture but it's a fast mover. Access C 00Z is in and it's projecting a widespread rain event except for East Gippsland with parts south of the ranges falling victim to the north westerly rain shadow. Mallee and Wimmera will love this moisture rich NW flow. The winds around the Yarra Valley into the Alps are feral tomorrow afternoon with the Jet stream in overdrive.
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