VIC - Strong front and Tasman Sea low: August 28-30 2019

Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:53 pm

Looks like the last system for winter, and looks half decent. Strong front coming up later on Wednesday which will form a low on the east coast. The low looks like emerging somewhere a little north of Sydney, but will spread rain back into Victoria from the east to affect the northeast and Gippsland later in the week.

The initial shot of cold air is quite cold, with snow levels falling to around 600m on Wednesday, before rising as the low builds and we get into warm air advection from the east. Would expect spots like Trentham/Gordon/Macedon to be touch and go for snow later on Wednesday.

Rainfall totals look handy at this point, but not excessive. EC has fairly widespread 10-50mm for area east of about Melbourne.

Tassiedave · Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:35 pm

The "Purple Line" at the end of the latest ACCESS G run is a long way north in 10 days time. Low level snow?

Harley34 · Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:21 pm

Tassiedave wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:35 pm The "Purple Line" at the end of the latest ACCESS G run is a long way north in 10 days time. Low level snow?

Yeah, the middle of next week looks to be building in to something major from the south. There was an article recently about the ssw and a possible rare weather system to eventuate. Similar to what happened in Europe last year...

Didjman · Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:16 am

Harley34 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:21 pm
Tassiedave wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2019 8:35 pm The "Purple Line" at the end of the latest ACCESS G run is a long way north in 10 days time. Low level snow?
Yeah, the middle of next week looks to be building in to something major from the south. There was an article recently about the ssw and a possible rare weather system to eventuate. Similar to what happened in Europe last year...

This has been followed / discussed at length in the Climate Driver thread if you want more info

Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:15 pm

EC has been slowly loosing interest with this event. Now looking more like a 5-10mm event

Dry start to spring showing up. Seems the +ve IOD is determined to have some influence (with latest values now above +1).

Didjman · Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:35 pm

hillybilly wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:15 pm Dry start to spring showing up.

Possibly a good thing till this SSW event has passed?

Adam38 · Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:54 pm

The upcoming weekend looks nice and mild with temps around 19c for a few days.
On another note, Perth could break an August temp record with 28c forecast for tomorrow before a period of wet weather sets in. Hopefully some of that rain makes it over here.

Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:16 pm

Didjman wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:35 pm
hillybilly wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 6:15 pm Dry start to spring showing up.
Possibly a good thing till this SSW event has passed?

For most of OZ a -ve SAM actually triggers warmer and drier conditions this time of year and elevated fire risk. It’s really only the very southeast which is wetter during the events (on average). The relationships aren’t strong (except for the south).

wobbie · Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:21 pm

Radar looks broken at the moment

stevco123 · Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:37 pm

5mm so far from this lot, almost 90mm for the month.

I got back from Cohuna/Echuca yesterday. Was expecting a dust bowl out that way the way it is portrayed by the media, however it is very much as green as can get.

Good to see

Adam38 · Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:03 pm

It is much drier further north!! Drove to Sydney in July and things are pretty dire out near Wagga, Gundagai. The area was green(just) but the creeks and farm dams were bone dry.

Adam38 · Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:31 pm

Perth has cracked 30c today... beating the previous August record by over 2c

Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:05 pm

Very welcome 11mm in FC so far (it more than the models suggested which is always a bonus). Now down to an icy 3.7C so not far off snow weather. MTD just cracked 140mm so our 4th month above average. I can't remember when we last had a run like that in winter. To make it even more remarkable is that southern OZ has had its driest or near driest start to a year on record so southern Vic in particular is completely out of character with most of OZ

Adam38 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:31 pm Perth has cracked 30c today... beating the previous August record by over 2c

That's not good. The previous August record at that site is just 27.2C. Records should not be broken by ~3C

stevco123 · Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:13 pm

My weather station has been keen on a -1 degree morning for Friday for about 3 days now, which usually translates to about -2.

I see bom now have 3 degrees for the city. I expect a forecast of 2 or 1 in tomorrow night's update.

Macedonian · Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:32 pm

Snowing here, 2.5C.
Max today was 5.2C
Brrr.

snowfall · Wed Aug 28, 2019 7:10 pm

6mm here, which is a bit more than I was expecting. Takes us up to 77mm for the month, which is already just above average. All good news, at least for the few of us who live in southern Vic. Looks like this month might also come in just below average for the maximum temperature, something that doesn't happen too often. Chilly outside currently - 4.7c.

Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:06 pm

City’s 6.2mm today pushes the total to 51.2mm which is just above average. Only the second month for the year. Really feels like it’s hard work clocking totals atm with so many wet days but mostly dribbles. Still, happy to take any rain

Couple of nice cool mornings now to come.

Wierd weather brewing for next week. If it goes northerly will hit mid 30s well south and probably low 30s into the Mallee. But, EC can’t decide whether to bring it south or not.

Sean · Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:21 pm

stevco123 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:37 pm 5mm so far from this lot, almost 90mm for the month.

I got back from Cohuna/Echuca yesterday. Was expecting a dust bowl out that way the way it is portrayed by the media, however it is very much as green as can get.

Good to see

Probably because you weren't in the area the media has actually been focused on, which is SE QLD, NE NSW, far west NSW and remote NT and northern WA. That dust bowl footage on the news isn't northern Vic..

Almost 10mm today. Was quite shocked because it crashed down for a little while there.

QldTwister · Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:03 pm

Yeah its the Mallee and East gippy that is bad and pretty much the rest of Aus most of Vic ok.

Yeah Country REALLY warming up next week right on time for spring

Spring is going to be HOT Dry Windy with Lots of Fires in NSW and Qld

stevco123 · Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:13 pm

Sean wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:21 pm
stevco123 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:37 pm 5mm so far from this lot, almost 90mm for the month.

I got back from Cohuna/Echuca yesterday. Was expecting a dust bowl out that way the way it is portrayed by the media, however it is very much as green as can get.

Good to see
Probably because you weren't in the area the media has actually been focused on, which is SE QLD, NE NSW, far west NSW and remote NT and northern WA. That dust bowl footage on the news isn't northern Vic..

Almost 10mm today. Was quite shocked because it crashed down for a little while there.

Yeah, you're probably right about the drought, except the media portrays it as being all of Northern Victoria. Overhyped as usual. Noticed they were talking up the upcoming fire season already today in the news as well, just like they've been doing for the past 25 years. Although I'd agree awareness is definitely good in that field.