VIC - Strong front: October 7-9 2019

[hillybilly]

1mm more overnight. Progs looking unstable with multiple troughs at the surface and aloft persisting. Messy pattern, but looks like showers a chance most days for the next week and a bit

The odd shower continuing today in a cool southerly flow.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Brief shower this am,
Rest look like it going to get nasty (black) and then nothing..

[hillybilly]

Fog and mizzle here. Another 0.8mm in the gauge. Looks like continuing much of today and tomorrow as the high stalls and a little cold pool south of Tasmania heads north.

This cold pool will then trigger an easterly dip with good falls in coastal NSW and East Gippsland, and some showers and storms for Vic on the weekend. Have added a couple of days to the thread. Tis a messy week ahead with troughs and little lows dominating.

[Gordon]

An even 2mm to 9am - not often we beat the Dandenongs in recent months . 12.5mm for the (extended?) dates, so a handy addition to the October total and a bit more than I was expecting from this system. Wintery morning here, down to 3C with fog and now 6C with low cloud.

Looking ahead, another cool to cold spell for the next 10 days, with below average temps forecast at this stage for all but two days (Sunday/Monday).

[hillybilly]

Looking ahead, another cool to cold spell for the next 10 days, with below average temps forecast at this stage for all but two days (Sunday/Monday).

It’s grey but actually almost on average. The city is currently running a tad above average, and the next six maxima average to about 20C which is right on average.

It’s funny as it feels like it’s been gloomy and cool, but data don’t really agree. Of course some spots will be higher or lower.

[Gordon]

Looking ahead, another cool to cold spell for the next 10 days, with below average temps forecast at this stage for all but two days (Sunday/Monday).

It’s grey but actually almost on average. The city is currently running a tad above average, and the next six maxima average to about 20C which is right on average.

It’s funny as it feels like it’s been gloomy and cool, but data don’t really agree. Of course some spots will be higher or lower.

I should have specified below average for our area. October average for Ballarat is 16.8C, and the current 10 day forecast max temps are 15, 15, 16, 17, 21, 16, 13, 13, 12, 12. (Not that I'd bet my life on the temps at the latter end of the period, but the trend is cool rather than warm.)

Today's forecast top for Ballarat is 12C so although we too are currently a tad above average thanks to a couple of spike days, it's doubtful we'll stay that way for long. Bitter day at home with the temp yet to rise above 8C.

[hillybilly]

One wierd murky day in the Dandenongs. Started with fog and drizzle, cleared, then went foggy then cleared and now foggy again. Had a couple of heavy showers as well. Had almost 2mm so far, despite barely anything on radar. The microclimate can be impressive at times.

[hillybilly]

Interesting couple of days ahead as cool uppers sit under a milder and more humid east to northeast flow. Going to be quite unstable with convective showers and storms, more so near the ranges and northern slopes. Will also be a few coastal showers in upslide through Bass Strait.

Looks pretty marginal for Melbourne, though outer northern and eastern suburbs look better. EC has been consistent in having mostly light falls, but the odd moderate to heavy fall under slow moving showers.

[stevco123]

Can see distant lightning to my very far north from here.

[stevco123]

Can see distant lightning to my very far north from here.

[hillybilly]

Can see distant lightning to my very far north from here.

Surprised to wake to see a radar with heavy showers, perhaps the odd storm, just north of the city. EC has been keen on showers and storms both today and tomorrow, though patchy and more north and on the divide. Be interesting to see how the next hour or two plays out.

Was some nice cold air anvils over the outer Yarra Valley yesterday.

Bit of a funny system as it looks like mid spring on the radar, but the uppers are more like mid winter. These system if you get lucky can be copious hail producers and there are some photos on social media of large hail accumulation in parts of NSW and Qld.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

HB.
The dates haven't changed for rest of posts.

Looks like I'll need to mow again prior to wed thurs' 5 to 10mm on both days. No complaints about this..

[snowfall]

A couple of heavy showers overnight here and 4.7mm, something I didn’t expect. Radar is clear now, but it will be interesting to see what happens today given the patchy nature of this setup.

[occluded]

Heavy drizzle and 6C this morning north of Hurstbridge made for a damp bike ride. Dried up (and warmed up) on the way back after Hurstbridge!

[Dane]

Bit of a rogue storm here last night between 3.30am and 4am. Got 7mm's during that time with a couple of rumbles as well.
Must of been in the hot spot as nearby PWS's got only 2 or 3mm's and the Airport zero.
Some showers around now mainly to the south of here so maybe a chance of something again later.

[Adam38]

The rain woke me up this morning, was heavy but didn’t last very long. An isolated shower has developed to my north and it has just started to rain here.

[Horts]

Tale of two halves today it seems, not a drop nor a cloud in the sky down here. Bathed in sunshine all day today you ripper!!

[weathergasm]

I think last night/today was the opening of the real storm season I think - classic, non-frontal convection on the ranges. Even here in Box Hill we had very convective looking cumulus for much of the afternoon. With just that little bit deeper instability and heating it would have been a very interesting day.

[hillybilly]

Lumpy convection all day here but just not quite there. Was a brief shower just west of the Dandenongs, but zilch here.

Tomorrow is a touch warmer, but uppers also warm so quite marginal again. Just the odd shower and storm, mainly northwest and ranges.

Decent front showing up for mid week now, which develops into a low near Bass Strait. Looks promising for moderate falls most areas based on the latest model runs. About time for the new thread.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Mad dash to clothes line, few things left over night are now dry with moisture on them.
It can rain now..