Vic Trough/Front Nov 2-4 2019

[Tassiedave]

Tas Temps today: Ouse 32.0, Grove 30.8, Scotts Peak 30.6, Strahan 28.8, Hobart 26.9, Launceston 23.6, Devonport 18.4

[Tassiedave]

Hobart avge maximum this October - 18.9 degrees.
Long Term avge - 17.0. Record October avge is 19.7 in 2015
Launceston avge maximum this October - 18.9 degrees.
Long Term avge - 18.2
Launceston October rainfall 23.4 mm Average: 49.6 mm
Hobart October rainfall 17.6mm Average: 61.1 mm

[snowfall]

Reached 30c here today. It was very windy for much of the day, though calm now. Hard to predict rainfall this weekend with the models still somewhat inconsistent, at least for these parts. NE Vic is looking very good and has consistently been that way in the models. I suspect we’ll be caught in a rain shadow here, at least for some of the time. Guess it will just be a case of wait and see, and hoping there is something to help replenish the soil, as it’s drying out quite quickly with the heat and wind.

[hillybilly]

Hot one here with 27C. Tomorrow looks similar. Pools temperature has jumped from 17C to 27C in a week. Shows summer has really hot with a bang

Looks like Orbost, Bairnsdale and Mt Nowa Nowa have all set October records. Always going to be a stinker for October, but for most not quite a record breaker.

Tomorrow should see the west light up late. The trough then more or less stalls over east central with heavy falls developing through Saturday. Looks like about 20mm here, while spots in the upper Yarra should see 50mm plus. Unstable and shower then for Sunday and Monday (when it turns wintery for a spell). Showery and windy then for next week. EC suggests lots of Vic should end the ten days with 50-100mm which will be very welcome after October’s poor showing (was the driest October on record for southern Australia ).

[Tassiedave]

A short time ago Grove (South of Hobart) was over 25 degrees. Maatsuyker Island at the southern tip of Tassie was 23.6 - warmer than Cairns!

[StratoBendigo]

We'll be lucky to get 15mm based on latest outputs from the forecast models this morning. Too little too late.

[Macca2395]

Quite warm and windy here in Lancefield - as it has been for the last couple of days. It’s juuust starting to turn brown which is always a tad depressing, but it’s nice to have summer well and truly on its way.

Dry records are seemingly dropping every month now in some part of Australia. It does paint a pretty disturbing picture..

[Wilko]

Dust dust dust

[Wilko]

The mallee has come into the city

[Tassiedave]

Highest temp in Tas so far Friendly Beaches 34.2 degrees

[Wilko]

Mt Gambier lighting up
I'm at Portsea so hoping for a bit of action during the evening

[Tassiedave]

Today's Tas temps: Friendly Beaches 34.2, Dunalley 33.3, Campania 33.0, Hobart 32.6, Fingal 31.3, Launceston 28.2, Wynyard 24.6

[Didjman]

STW for SW cnr of Vic. Radar shows it building and Satpic has north south lines of Cu in central and west central areas. Bring it on!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Confusin,
Firewood is out in open,
If I'm going to light it I need to put it under cover.
I'm too hot to be loading wheel barrows,
Very confused. Is it going to get cold..

[BERVY]

Very different rain amounts forecast for here depending if you look at "Weatherzone" or "Bom" on the WZ site.
Obviously use different models but strange how they can be so different. Given the "event" is on our doorstep I would have thought the various models would be in some sort of agreement.
On the WZ site, the forecast using Opticast is 80% 10-20mm for Sat, 60% 1-5mm for Sun.
In contrast, the Bom is saying 95% 25-35mm for Sat, and 90% of 15-30mm.
I guess I will soon see who is closer but something has spooked Opticast off a major rain event here for us over the weekend.

[Sean]

Wasn't too bad today. Was warm, but the light cloud really took the edge off.

Lot's of cloud moving in, which usually means thundery showers as opposed to thunderstorms.

Getting a bit desperate for a drink now. Fingers crossed for 15mm at least.

[Horts]

Radar doesn't look great for central. All SW. Hmm do I water the garden or not?

[wolfcat]

Radar doesn't look great for central. All SW. Hmm do I water the garden or not?

Please do, watering the garden is the best way to ensure great rainfall.

[hillybilly]

28C in FC. The whole system is slowing down which is good for rain. Means that it will be moving into central area late morning to early arvo when the diurnal cycle will give it a boost. EC and GFS are both upping rainfall totals a result. Wouldn’t be surprised to get 30mm in the Dandenongs tomorrow, and could well see 50mm. Will be thundery, so bit comes down to whether you get a cell or not. Back in SA some of the cells are dumpers. Northeast looks very wet.

In Walkerville for the weekend where it’s warm and sticky but gone calm. Almost cut an Eastern Brown snake in half doing the lawns this evening. Not sure if I jumped more or him Lucky he went one way and me the other

[Tassiedave]

Tas temps at 10.20 pm: Launceston 22.5, Friendly Beaches 21.9, Maria Island 21.7, Fingal 20.1, Hobart 17.6